Brief Introduction why Crypto moves in Cycles. "Crypto is an expression of Macro." The 2007-2008 global financial crisis was a pivotal moment that fundamentally transformed monetary policy, particularly in how central banks manage economic cycles through liquidity manipulation. Before the crisis, central banks primarily used interest rates as a blunt instrument for economic management. The 2008 financial crisis exposed deep vulnerabilities in the global financial system, particularly the interconnectedness of financial institutions and the risks of unregulated credit markets. In response, central banks, led by the Federal Reserve, developed a more sophisticated approach to economic management: 1. Quantitative Easing (QE) The Federal Reserve introduced large-scale asset purchases, essentially creating money to buy government bonds and mortgage-backed securities. This unprecedented monetary intervention: - Prevented a complete economic collapse - Provided liquidity to frozen credit markets - Kept interest rates artificially low - Supported asset prices and prevented a deeper recession 2. Synchronized Global Monetary Policy Central banks worldwide began coordinating their monetary policies more closely, creating a more interconnected approach to economic management: - Coordinated interest rate decisions - Shared information about economic interventions - Created global liquidity pools 3. Cyclical Liquidity Management The new approach involves deliberately creating and managing economic cycles through: - Periodic liquidity injections - Strategic interest rate adjustments - Using monetary policy as a proactive economic tool rather than a reactive one The 4-year cycle emerged as a pattern of: - 2-3 years of expansionary policy - Followed by a contraction or normalization period This cycle typically involves: - Expanding money supply - Lowering interest rates - Supporting asset prices - Then gradually withdrawing support to prevent overheating The 2007-2008 crisis essentially forced central banks to become more active economic managers, moving from a passive regulatory role to an interventionist approach that continuously adjusts monetary conditions. This approach represents a significant departure from previous monetary policy, where central banks now see themselves as active economic architects rather than passive observers.
FX:XAUUSD is moving into the correction phase amid last week's economic data. The price is returning to the channel and in general confirms the bearish character on the market. https://www.tradingview.com/x/SptaZn4D/ Markets are ready for a 0.25% interest rate cut, but traders are waiting for hints on the Fed's stance: whether the Fed will continue to cut rates, go into a wait-and-see mode, or hint at a rate hike based on last week's economic data. Traders are eagerly awaiting the Fed's decision, which will be announced on December 18. The gold price is also receiving support from renewed tensions in the Middle East and political turmoil in South Korea. Technically, after the false breakout of 2721 a deep correction is forging, which generally develops into a localized downtrend. The price is approaching the panic zone 2615-2600. At the Asian session a correction is forming and it is worth paying attention to the key resistance zones Resistance levels: 2667, 2675, 2685 Support levels: 2646, 2633 The price is heading towards the imbalance zone within the correction. A quick approach and retest of resistance could trigger a rebound. Traders may enter the phase of profit taking before strong news Regards R. Linda!
10:30 AM UK Time 16 Dec 2024 Gold prices are inching higher as investors await the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decision later this week. According to ANZ Research analysts, while a rate cut appears certain at this week's Fed meeting, concerns are growing over the possibility of a pause in rate cuts come January. Nonetheless, rising geopolitical tensions are bolstering safe-haven demand, as evidenced by an increase in ETF holdings and a rise in speculators’ net-long positions last week. ANZ predicts gold will hit a record high of $2,900 per ounce next year, driven by strong investment inflows, steady physical demand, and sustained central bank purchases. Currently, gold futures are up 0.1%, trading at $2,659.90
gbpnzd broke the falling trend channel on the hourly chart with a lot of volume. I expect an upward move of at least 150 pips after the retest.
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Hello, Trend-Based Analysis. Buy the Dips, Sell The Rallies, Also Following the Trend. Let's see where the Price Action takes us, Riding the wave. Potential trade setups based on trend momentum. Technical analysis based on trend identification and momentum, Looking for high-probability setups within the prevailing trend. Analyzing the current market trend and potential future price movement. Focusing on risk management and reward-to-risk ratios. Details is Mentioned in Chart, Read carefully.. .
USDCAD in bullish trend printing a bearish AB=CD, entry with a sell stop
Hi guys, this is my overview for EURUSD, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments? Recently price broke $1.0560 level and fell to support line, after which rose to resistance line and continued to fall. Then price made a gap and fell to support level, after which some time traded near and then made upward impulse. Price broke resistance line with resistance level, and rose to $1.0630 points, but then it started to fall. In falling channel, price broke $1.0560 level again and fell to support area, after which bounced up, making a fake breakout. Next, Euro started to grow and now it continues to move up, therefore I think it can almost reach resistance line. After this, price can turn around and start to fall to $1.0470 support level inside falling channel. If this post is useful to you, you can support me with like/boost and advice in comments❤️
Ethereum is re-testing the resistance zone on the 4H timeframe. During the weekends we had the re-test of our bounce zone, where we were also lying our entry for short position but yet it failed to break and went back to upper zones! We are not keeping attention on that resistance zone for any signs of breakout or if we see a weakness to kick in, then the 200EMA line is our point of interest! Swallow Team
Hey traders and investors! Gold and silver prices have reached the buyer's interest zones: 2650-2627 for gold and 30.3165 for silver. Let’s see if the buyer is strong at these levels or if the price will continue to decline. A deeper correction would be preferable. Detailed analysis in related posts. Good luck with your trading and investments!