? ? Ticker: TMHC (NYSE) ? Setup: Trendline Rejection + Resistance Hold ? Rejection Zone: ~$59.44 (yellow zone + wedge top) ? Trade Plan (Short Bias) ✅ Entry Range: $59.30–$59.50 ✅ Stop Loss (SL): Above $60.75 (red zone resistance) ✅ Profit Targets: • TP1: $57.56 (blue support base) • TP2: $56.16 (green minor support) • TP3: $55.45 (orange zone - extended support) ? Risk-Reward Notes • Bearish wick rejection at key trendline • Price reacting to previous support flipped resistance • Pattern shows signs of exhaustion at the top ? Technical Highlights • Lower highs + trendline pressure • Bearish engulfing rejection candle • Consolidation under resistance = short bias continuation ⚙️ Trade Management • Move SL to breakeven after TP1 • Scale out partially near TP2 • Let remaining ride with trailing SL if momentum builds ⚠️ Invalidation Triggers ❌ Price breaks and holds above $60.75 ❌ Strong bullish breakout candle ❌ Volume surge above trendline
The USOIL has dropped about 13% in price this month and currently close at $62.27 per barrel. If we take into consideration, the nature of price movement since April 2020, we can see that prices has been on a steady upward trajectory since April 2020. By the way , we’ve seen a 50% retracement so far. From technical standpoint, i anticipate a rise in price back to 67.08 next week.
I don't make a lot of videos but I thought this idea warranted one so I could share the detail. First of all, I'd like your feedback - what else do you see? what did I miss? Let me know. Key points from this video: We are coming up on the COVID lower trendline We are currently sitting on a key level that has a confluence of 50% retrace on downward channel The 61.8 retrace is in confluence with a number of key items: The COVID Trendline, Volume Profile, 2022 high, and current channel Momentum is also supportive of a pivot So, what do you think?
? ? Ticker: MTH (NYSE) ? Setup: Bearish Wedge Rejection + Resistance Flip ? Rejection Zone: ~$69.00 (yellow zone + wedge trendline) ? Trade Plan (Short Bias) ✅ Entry Range: $68.85–$69.10 ✅ Stop Loss (SL): Above $72.03 (white resistance level) ✅ Profit Targets: • TP1: $65.21 (green minor support) • TP2: $62.05 (prior support base) • TP3: $59.66 (orange key demand level) ? Risk-Reward Notes • Price rejected wedge top with bearish confirmation • Support flipped into resistance at yellow zone • Volume fading on retest = potential breakdown setup • Room for downside toward major supports ? Technical Highlights • Clean rejection at wedge resistance • Failed breakout = bearish pressure • Lower highs forming structure breakdown bias ⚙️ Trade Management • Trail SL after TP1 hit • Scale out partials at major supports • Watch for increased bearish volume on move below $68 ⚠️ Setup Invalidation ❌ Breakout and close above $72.03 ❌ Strong bullish candle with volume ❌ Price consolidates above wedge and horizontal zone
? ? Ticker: GRBK (NYSE) ? Setup: Ascending Triangle Rejection + Breakdown Risk ? Rejection Zone: ~$57.80 (yellow zone + trendline confluence) ? Trade Plan (Short Bias) ✅ Entry Range: $57.65–$57.85 ✅ Stop Loss (SL): Above $59.54 (white resistance zone) ✅ Profit Zones: • TP1: $55.10 (Post level retest) • TP2: $53.40 (green structure support) • TP3: $51.77 (major support base – orange zone) ? Risk-Reward View • Bearish confluence at horizontal + trendline resistance • Price stalling under supply zone • Weak bullish momentum with signs of fading volume • Key breakdown could unlock deeper downside potential ? Technical Highlights • Price rejected triangle resistance cleanly • Bearish structure forming lower highs • Tight range under rejection = breakout likely ⚙️ Trade Management Tips • Trail stop loss after TP1 • Lock profits gradually into support zones • Watch for volume drop below $55 for confirmation ⚠️ Setup Invalidation ❌ Break and hold above $59.54 ❌ Strong bullish breakout with volume ❌ Price closing above trendline & horizontal resistance
The value of a nation's currency is a critical barometer of its economic health and global standing.1 Typically, in times of international turmoil or economic uncertainty, the U.S. dollar, as the world's reserve currency, tends to strengthen.2 This "safe-haven" effect is driven by increased demand for the dollar as investors seek stability and liquidity. However, recent trends have seen the greenback exhibit a notable weakening, even amidst persistent global anxieties.3 This begs the crucial question: how worrying is this deviation from the norm, and what are the potential implications for the U.S. and the global economy? To understand the significance of a weakening dollar, it's essential to first recognize the factors that typically influence its strength. These include interest rates set by the Federal Reserve, inflation levels, the overall performance of the U.S. economy relative to others, trade balances, and geopolitical stability.4 Higher interest rates tend to attract foreign investment, increasing demand for the dollar and thus its value.5 Strong economic growth similarly boosts confidence in the currency.6 Conversely, high inflation erodes the dollar's purchasing power, while a significant trade deficit (importing more than exporting) can indicate an oversupply of the currency in global markets, leading to depreciation. Historically, during periods of global crisis, the dollar has often acted as a port in a storm. Events like geopolitical conflicts, financial market meltdowns in other regions, or global pandemics have typically triggered a "flight to safety," with investors flocking to the perceived security and liquidity of U.S. dollar-denominated assets, thereby strengthening the currency.7 This was evident during past crises, where the dollar often appreciated as investors sought refuge from volatility elsewhere. The current weakening of the dollar, therefore, raises eyebrows precisely because it seemingly contradicts this established pattern. While global uncertainties persist – ranging from ongoing geopolitical tensions in various parts of the world to concerns about the pace of global economic growth – the dollar has not consistently exhibited its traditional strengthening behavior. This departure suggests that underlying factors might be at play, potentially signaling deeper concerns about the U.S. economic outlook or the dollar's long-term standing. One potential reason for this weakening could be a shift in relative economic strength. If other major economies are perceived to be on a stronger growth trajectory or offering more attractive investment opportunities, capital might flow away from the dollar, putting downward pressure on its value. For instance, improvements in economic prospects in the Eurozone or emerging markets could lead investors to diversify their holdings, reducing their reliance on the dollar. Furthermore, concerns about the U.S.'s fiscal health, including rising national debt and persistent budget deficits, could also contribute to dollar weakness. While the dollar's reserve currency status has historically provided a buffer, a sustained period of fiscal imbalance could eventually erode investor confidence in the long-term value of the currency.8 Another factor to consider is the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. While higher interest rates typically support a stronger dollar, expectations of future rate cuts or a more accommodative monetary stance could dampen investor enthusiasm for dollar-denominated assets. If the market anticipates that the Fed will need to lower rates to support economic growth or combat deflationary pressures, this could lead to a weakening of the dollar.9 The implications of a weakening dollar are multifaceted and can have both positive and negative consequences for the U.S. economy. On the positive side, a weaker dollar makes U.S. exports more competitive in international markets, as they become cheaper for foreign buyers.10 This could potentially boost U.S. manufacturing and help to narrow the trade deficit. Additionally, a weaker dollar can increase the value of earnings that U.S. multinational corporations generate in foreign currencies, as these earnings translate into more dollars when repatriated. However, the downsides of a weakening dollar can be significant. Firstly, it makes imports more expensive for U.S. consumers and businesses.11 This can lead to higher prices for a wide range of goods, potentially fueling inflation.12 For businesses that rely on imported components or raw materials, a weaker dollar can increase their costs of production, which may eventually be passed on to consumers. Secondly, a sustained weakening of the dollar could erode its status as the world's reserve currency. While this is a long-term prospect, a decline in the dollar's dominance could have significant implications for the U.S.'s ability to borrow cheaply and exert influence in the global financial system.13 Thirdly, a weakening dollar could lead to concerns among foreign investors holding U.S. assets, such as Treasury bonds. If they anticipate further depreciation of the dollar, they might become less inclined to hold these assets, potentially leading to higher U.S. borrowing costs in the future. In conclusion, the current weakening of the dollar, particularly in the face of ongoing global uncertainties where it would typically strengthen, is a trend that warrants careful attention. While a moderate depreciation can have some benefits for U.S. exports, a sustained or significant weakening could signal underlying economic vulnerabilities or a shift in global investor sentiment towards the greenback. Factors such as relative economic performance, U.S. fiscal health, and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy will likely play a crucial role in determining the future trajectory of the dollar. The departure from its traditional safe-haven status serves as a reminder that the dollar's dominance is not immutable and underscores the importance of maintaining sound economic policies to underpin its long-term strength and stability. Monitoring these trends will be critical for understanding the evolving global economic landscape and its implications for the United States.
This Week in Finance Deposit protection may rise in the UK, IG Group snaps up Freetrade, and trading surges at Interactive Brokers. Republic dives into crypto, while regulators push new FX and derivatives rules. UK Wants to Raise FSCS Deposit Protection to £110,000 The Prudential Regulation Authority (PRA) has proposed an increase to the Financial […]
https://www.tradingview.com/x/YfmueeHm/ Hello,Traders! NATGAS went down again But will soon hit a horizontal Support level around 3.784$ So after the retest we can go Long on Gas with the Take Profit of 3.907$ and the Stop Loss of 3.725$ Buy! Comment and subscribe to help us grow! Check out other forecasts below too! Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Gold, long considered a safe-haven asset during times of economic uncertainty, experienced a sharp reversal of fortune this Friday, tumbling as much as 2.4% and extending losses from the previous session. This significant decline came as a surprise to many who had witnessed the precious metal steadily climb to record highs in recent weeks, fueled by persistent inflation concerns, geopolitical instability, and expectations of easing monetary policy. However, the resurgence of tariff anxieties has triggered a broad selloff across various asset classes, including gold, as investors recalibrate their risk exposure in the face of heightened economic uncertainty.1 The catalyst for this sudden shift in market sentiment has been the renewed threat of escalating trade tensions.2 While the specifics of the "tariff shock" are crucial in understanding the market reaction, the general principle is that the imposition or threat of tariffs can disrupt global supply chains, increase costs for businesses and consumers, and ultimately dampen economic growth.3 This increased uncertainty and the potential for negative economic consequences have prompted investors to reassess their portfolios and, in many cases, reduce their exposure to assets perceived as riskier or less liquid, even those traditionally considered safe havens.4 Gold's traditional role as a safe haven stems from its historical use as a store of value, its limited supply, and its lack of correlation with traditional financial assets during periods of stress.5 In times of economic turmoil, investors often flock to gold as a hedge against inflation, currency devaluation, and market volatility.6 This flight to safety typically drives up the price of bullion.7 However, the current market reaction suggests a more nuanced dynamic at play. The tariff shock appears to have triggered a broader reassessment of risk, leading to a selloff that encompasses not only equities and other riskier assets but also traditional safe havens like gold. Several factors could be contributing to this phenomenon. Firstly, the prospect of tariffs can lead to concerns about slower global growth.8 If economic activity contracts, it could reduce overall demand, potentially impacting even safe-haven assets like gold, particularly if investors anticipate lower inflation in the long run. While gold is often seen as an inflation hedge, a significant deflationary shock could negatively affect its price. Secondly, the imposition of tariffs can create uncertainty about future economic policies and international relations.9 This uncertainty can lead to increased volatility across all asset classes, prompting investors to reduce overall exposure and move towards cash or other highly liquid assets. In such scenarios, even assets perceived as safe havens might be sold off as part of a broader de-risking strategy. Thirdly, the recent run-up in gold prices to record highs might have made it a target for profit-taking. After a significant rally, any negative news or shift in market sentiment can trigger a wave of selling as investors look to lock in gains. The tariff shock could have provided the catalyst for such profit-taking, exacerbating the downward pressure on gold prices. Furthermore, the interconnectedness of global financial markets means that negative sentiment in one area can quickly spread to others.10 The fear of a trade war can impact equity markets, leading to margin calls or a general desire to reduce risk across portfolios, which could include selling gold holdings. The extent of the gold selloff – a 2.4% drop in a single day is significant for a traditionally stable asset – underscores the severity of the market's reaction to the tariff news. This move also highlights the fact that even safe-haven assets are not immune to broad market dislocations and shifts in investor sentiment. Looking ahead, the trajectory of gold prices will likely depend heavily on how the tariff situation unfolds and its actual impact on the global economy. If the tariff threats escalate into a full-blown trade war with significant negative consequences for growth and corporate earnings, we could see further volatility across all asset classes. In such a scenario, the initial reaction might be continued selling pressure on gold as investors prioritize liquidity and de-risking. However, if the economic fallout from tariffs becomes more apparent and concerns about stagflation (slow growth with high inflation) resurface, gold's traditional safe-haven appeal could reassert itself. In a stagflationary environment, gold could once again become an attractive asset as a hedge against both economic stagnation and the erosion of purchasing power. Moreover, any signs of easing monetary policy by central banks in response to slowing economic growth could also provide support for gold prices. Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold and can also be inflationary in the long run. In conclusion, the recent tumble in gold prices following the tariff shock demonstrates that even traditional safe-haven assets are susceptible to broad market selloffs triggered by significant economic uncertainties. The initial reaction appears to be driven by a general de-risking across asset classes and potential profit-taking after gold's recent record highs. However, the future performance of gold will depend on the evolving economic landscape, the actual impact of tariffs, and the response of monetary policy. While the immediate reaction has been negative, gold's role as a potential hedge against economic turmoil and inflation could see it regain its footing if the negative consequences of the tariff shock become more pronounced. Investors should closely monitor developments in trade policies and their broader economic implications to gauge the future direction of gold prices. The current volatility serves as a reminder that even in the realm of safe havens, market dynamics can shift rapidly and unexpectedly.
We may be witnessing a historic moment in the evolution of Bitcoin. On April 3rd, 2025 at 15:00 UTC, Bitcoin officially broke its correlation with the S&P 500 a connection that had persisted for years. Since that moment, the divergence has become clear: • The S&P 500 has continued its sharp decline, now down over 7%, amid rising macroeconomic uncertainty and trade tensions. • Meanwhile, Bitcoin has held strong, even climbing up to 4%, and has now entered a period of sideways consolidation rather than following the broader market into panic. As of April 4th, 2025 at 20:00 UTC, this trend is holding and it might just signal the start of a new era for digital assets. ? A Shift in Market Psychology Historically, BTC has mirrored traditional markets, especially during moments of fear. But this time is different. Bitcoin is resisting the gravitational pull of global financial weakness. This could mean that investors are starting to see Bitcoin not as a high-risk tech bet, but as a legitimate hedge against global instability a digital store of value. ? Why It Makes Sense • ? Borderless: Bitcoin is not tied to any single economy or government. • ?️ Decentralized: No central authority can manipulate its supply. • ? Scarce and predictable: With a fixed max supply of 21 million, Bitcoin offers transparency and reliability. In a world of rising protectionism and financial tension, Bitcoin offers what traditional systems can’t: a neutral, incorruptible asset available to anyone, anywhere. ? What’s Next? If the decoupling continues, we could see: • ? Capital shifting into Bitcoin for protection, not just speculation. • ? A new wave of adoption, as institutions and individuals look for safe havens. • ? Altcoin markets gaining momentum, once confidence trickles down from Bitcoin's stability. ? Final Thoughts This moment could be a turning point. While traditional markets falter, Bitcoin holds firm. While governments talk tariffs and trade wars, Bitcoin offers freedom. If this trend continues, it may redefine the role of Bitcoin in the global economy — not just as a volatile asset, but as a truly global store of value and pillar of financial independence.