Tesla’s market cap now surpasses the combined market cap of all major automobile producers. Elon Musk is undeniably a genius, yet this staggering valuation owes much to a robust bull market and post-COVID hype. If Tesla were valued using the same earnings and revenue multiples as the average automaker, its stock price would hover between $15 and $20 per share. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Tesla’s chart is one of the most striking I’ve ever seen. It reflects a powerful bull market that has completed an Elliott Wave five-wave structure, signaling that a bear market is likely next. Wave 4 formed a running triangle—a pattern typical in strong trends—and was followed by a short Wave 5, exactly as expected. Running triangles paired with a brief Wave 5 often indicate distribution. Indeed, Tesla’s chart reveals a beautiful four-year distribution phase (2021–2025). During this period, the stock struggled to climb higher due to persistent selling pressure. Strong hands have now offloaded their shares to weaker hands, setting the stage for a bear market. A triple divergence on the monthly RSI further confirms extreme overbought conditions and reinforces the case for selling. There’s no significant support until the $15–$20 range. If my prediction of a 2008-style crash in the S&P 500 (see related ideas) holds true, Tesla could bottom out around $15—a level that, intriguingly, aligns with its COVID-era low. "Bull market geniuses turn into bear market fools." Elon Musk net worth derives value mostly from Tesla and SpaceX as other companies are illiquid and very speculative. Current Musk's Tesla stake is worth around $100 billion if the price falls down to $15 it would be worth $6 billion, all other things being equal that alone would put a significant dent in his net worth. Musk is widely recognized as someone who leverages his Tesla shares and SpaceX to fund other ventures and lifestyle. It is not clear at what price level his margin calls are and what arrangements he has with banks but if crash of this magnitude happens all his Tesla shares could be wiped out with possible full blown bankruptcy. I wish him well and hope he does well, but this scenario is not unlikely and interesting to ponder.
XAUUSD Insights Scenario 1: Bounces at 1D Order Block with pullback to the Double Bottom pattern. Scenario 2: If it fails to bounce at the 1D Order Block, we might see it going down to 2728 level where we see an inverted Head and Shoulders Pattern before going up again and making a new all time high.
Based on time fib and Feigenbaum constants, CL is closing in on the bottom for this swing, expected within marked timezone. The swing highs/lows follows the Feigenbaum projections for the last few swings. I expect a dip below $57 before a new run higher, at least to $72-73.
? GBP/USD Technical Analysis – 4H Timeframe | Market Poised for Breakout or Breakdown? Key Support: 1.26888 Key Resistance: 1.28829 Market Structure: Consolidation with bullish undertones Bias: Neutral-to-bullish (pending confirmation) ? Market Overview: The GBP/USD pair is currently consolidating within a well-defined horizontal channel on the 4-hour chart, oscillating between 1.26888 (major support) and 1.28829 (key resistance). This prolonged range-bound behavior reflects a market in balance, where buyers and sellers are cautiously awaiting a catalyst to drive the next impulsive move. The price action suggests that this consolidation phase may be coming to an end soon. A breakout or breakdown from this tight range is likely to set the tone for the next major trend. Market participants should be alert to early breakout signals and volume surges as confirmation triggers. ? Price Structure and Key Observations: The market has printed a series of higher lows within the consolidation range, indicating a subtle bullish pressure beneath the surface. Price is hovering near the mid-range zone, consolidating after multiple failed breakout attempts at 1.28829. A squeeze in volatility is evident from narrowing candlesticks and declining ATR, often preceding explosive directional moves. ? Technical Indicators Breakdown: ✅ RSI (14): Currently trading around the neutral zone at 50, showing no clear directional bias. However, higher lows on RSI suggest potential bullish divergence forming, which could be an early signal of upward momentum building up. ✅ MACD: A recent bullish crossover below the zero line indicates potential for a shift in momentum. Histogram bars are starting to turn positive, supporting a near-term bullish scenario if price confirms with a breakout. ✅ Moving Averages: Price is trading above the 50-period SMA, which has acted as dynamic support on several occasions. The 200-period SMA remains below current price levels, indicating a medium-term bullish structure remains intact unless support is broken decisively. ? Potential Scenarios: ✅ Bullish Breakout Scenario: If price breaks and closes above 1.28829 on strong bullish volume, it would represent a major breakout from the current range. This could open the door for a new impulsive leg to the upside. Upside Targets: ? 1.29650 – Short-term resistance level from previous highs ? 1.30300 – Psychological round number and previous supply zone ? 1.31000 – Extended target aligned with Fibonacci 1.618 projection Confirmation Factors: Break + retest of 1.28829 as new support RSI holding above 60 MACD expanding positively ❌ Bearish Rejection / Breakdown Scenario: Should the pair fail to break above 1.28829 and print a strong bearish rejection candle (e.g., Shooting Star, Bearish Engulfing), the pair could retest the lower support of 1.26888. A clean break below 1.26888 with a decisive bearish close could signal a trend reversal, shifting sentiment toward the downside. Downside Targets: ? 1.26000 – Near-term psychological support ? 1.25200 – Previous demand area and key fib level (61.8%) ? 1.24400 – Long-term trendline support (if applicable) ⚙️ Trade Strategy & Risk Management: Breakout Traders: Wait for a confirmed candle close outside the range (either above 1.28829 or below 1.26888) before entering. Avoid false breakouts by validating with volume and momentum indicators. Range Traders: Continue fading the range boundaries (buy near 1.26888, sell near 1.28829) while the channel remains intact. Use tight stop-losses just beyond the range to mitigate whipsaw risks. Swing Traders: A successful breakout presents excellent risk-reward setups for multi-day trades, especially if accompanied by high volatility and news catalysts (e.g., NFP, BoE/Fed announcements). ? Conclusion: The GBP/USD pair is coiling tightly within a critical decision zone between 1.26888 and 1.28829. The tightening price structure, supportive indicators, and market indecision suggest that a major breakout is imminent. Whether bulls take control or bears force a breakdown will largely depend on macroeconomic catalysts and institutional order flow. Traders are advised to stay patient, let the market reveal its hand, and execute only on high-probability setups with clear confirmations. This is not the time to chase the market—this is the time to prepare for the move. ? Let me know in the comments how you're positioning yourself on GBP/USD this week! ? Follow for more real-time setups, macro breakdowns, and professional market insights. ? Stay sharp, stay technical. Would you like me to generate a matching TradingView chart snapshot with drawn zones and notes to go with this analysis for posting?
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The United Postal Service NYSE:UPS finally closed out the last remaining price gap on the daily chart (since 2020) and entered my "crash" simple moving average zone. With a P/E of 15x, earnings forecast growth of 8.12% per year, and a dividend over 6%, NYSE:UPS "may" be a good buy and hold through these tumultuous economic/trade war times. I wouldn't place a continued price drop near $75-$85 out of the question, but I'm not in the game of calling bottoms. At $92.00, NYSE:UPS is in a personal buy zone. Word of caution: if this stock really tanks due to trade issues and massive recession, $50s... Targets: $108.00 $120.00 $133.00
Where We Stand Entry vs. Current Price: I placed a sell at 1.27752, and the current price is now 1.27982—about 0.0023 (or roughly 23 pips) above my entry. In other words, you’re in a slight, manageable loss. Technical Context: The moving averages (like the DEMA at 1.2953 and EMA at 1.30089) and the SAR (at 1.29789) remain well above the current price, which means the broader technical landscape still supports a bearish bias. The directional indicators are favoring the downtrend (with minus DI significantly above plus DI) and even though the RSI is very low (around 20.4, indicating oversold conditions), in strong downtrends oversold readings can persist without triggering a full reversal. The high ADX-related values (DX ~60.95) further suggest that the trend is robust, even if there’s a brief pullback. Recent Price Action: On the daily chart, recent swings show that minor retracements can occur as the market digests news and key levels. The current price movement to 1.27982 may simply be a short-term bounce rather than a change in sentiment. Fundamental Environment: With upcoming news (like the FOMC minutes on April 9th and additional US/UK data later in the week) adding volatility, the market might briefly test higher levels. However, these fundamentals haven’t yet overturned the prevailing technical context. What to Consider Hold with Caution: Given that the overall bearish structure, along with key technicals (moving averages, SAR, and directional indicators), still supports a downtrend, keeping the trade is reasonable. The slight pullback above your entry can be viewed as a temporary retracement. Risk Management: Watch Key Levels: Monitor if the price decisively holds above a certain level (say, if it pushes well above 1.2800 with strong momentum). That could signal the potential for a sustained reversal—in which case I might need to exit or partially close your position. Upcoming Fundamental News: The scheduled data releases can spike volatility. Be prepared for erratic price action around these events. It might be wise to reduce my position size or set alerts to protect your downside if the trade starts to move against you. Recommendation I lean toward keeping the trade because: The overall technical setup (moving averages, SAR, and directional movement) remains bearish. The recent pullback appears to be minor and doesn’t breach key resistance levels that might signal a reversal. RSI oversold conditions in a strong downtrend aren’t uncommon, so while they may indicate potential for a bounce, they don’t necessarily negate the downtrend.
4/8/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:QQQ Don't fall for the meme So. You are following Trump on Truth Social. (strike 1) You are believing Dalio about the state of geopolitics. (strike 2) Jim Cramer is on in the background yelling (strike 3) Rando on X accounts "AI is a bubble" (strike 4) You can taper a USD ponzi scheme (strike 5) ... i could go on. Here's the reality. - The stock market is real money. "Money" being defined as "something that has productive value". It it the best money? Maybe. BTC is pretty good too. Each have their own properties. Is the USD "money"? Well. Yes, but mostly no. It's mostly a liability. - Is the global economy melting down? No. Have you not seen what AI can do beyond one-shotting prompts? This is far from what dotcom was. Dotcom never replaced people/ labor and services. So while there are a lot of meme companies out there attaching AI to their business descriptions, the core suspects are monetizing this today, and it's only getting more impressive (not by the week), but the *day* - Does the debt market matter more than stonks rn? Yes. Up until a few days ago, lower yields (on UST's) emboldened speech to not give a F. Well, that's changed. Back to "you can't taper a ponzi". So better own productive assets. Gold has sniffed this out. BTC usually follows 3-6 months on Gold (as a smaller asset class) unless China decides to go full retard Jerome (which they might). And historically, China stimmy is the trigger for BTC getting sent. Weird the moon bois don't track this. But put it in the back of your mental model. - So what do we do here? Productive assets that have visibility toward growth not just this year but into the next 3-5Y and are trading where cash yields and healthy balance sheets are >5% FCF's but ideally closer to 10%. - NASDAQ:NXT remains in a tough tide. Solar as a category has just been so scammy. And even tho US builders are sourcing mainly from Vietnam (not China) etc. etc. people don't do the work in a correlation 1 world. So do we retrace the $32/shr gap? Idk. But I sized up so hard today. And tmr I'll be updating if we gap lower. it's 33% of book today. i take to 40% if we get to sub $35. and i get to 50% (LEAPS!) if we close dat gap. - $OBTC. bitcoin at 8-10% off spot? lol. size manage, but definitely a good way to play the beta with larger size given the discount. almost like leverage without leverage. limits only. v illiquid. hence the discount. - I like NASDAQ:BLDE here at $2.5 the TL;DR is this. 1/ cash generative. 2/ main biz is organ transport, and consumer biz is cash generative ans mostly rich ppl Uber in the sky 3/ two-thirds of the valuation is net cash and 4/ you can sell august 15 2025 calls for 55-60c today (at $2.5/shr) locking in 20% yield with some downside production (where the stock would theoretically trade close to zero valuation and you'd honestly want to own the stock anyway). so i've sized this up to nearly 20% of book. - I like $UBER. 6% fcf yields. not tariff exposed. but it's defn travel-punching bag. I get it. Gap in the high 50s *shouldn't* fill, but i'm prepared if/when only because we're trading like everything is the same. That's what the room-temperature "I buy ETFs" crowd deserves. Pick and choose. So if we dump, this gets dumped and we go back there, I'd consider this an absolute gift. Flows vs. fundamentals already dominant. Better beta than mkt as we re-rip toward ATHs (my view remains) this year. - $GAMB. 15% fcf yields. not tariff exposed. normies r gonna gamble. they have founder-led beats/raises. M&A, low liquidity keeps this waffling but ultimately a winner. - $VST. trades like NASDAQ:NVDA (so does NASDAQ:NXT ) lol. it's a f'n utility that generates piles of cash, is insulated from the hyperscaler fall out (if/does happen... which is NOT my base case), but utimately has tons of power to serve up. $1.4M/MW cheap. 6% fcf yields. no brainer. - $NVO. honorable mention. Euro's can't seem to grow a pair and buy this obvious cash generative winner. GL. mm.. wealth isn't measured in USD's.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/dUsVyEG3/ Hello,Traders! GBP-USD made a bearish Breakout of the key wide horizontal Level of 1.2851 then made a Pullback so we are bearish Biased and a further bearish Continuation is to be expected Sell! Comment and subscribe to help us grow! Check out other forecasts below too! Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Could we see XRP back near $0.60 lows? The recent developments in the XRP ecosystem, including Ripple's acquisition of Hidden Road, have set the stage for a potential bullish reversal. As we've dipped into the monthly bullish fair value gap (FVG), I'm eyeing a rebalancing opportunity to $0.60, where price may seek to refill sell-side liquidity and shake out weak hands. As a developing trader, my strategy is to buy the dips and hold onto this asset. Although I initially considered purchasing more at $1.90, I've decided to allocate a portion of my crypto savings wallet to USD, waiting for a more favorable entry point. I'm targeting key levels below $1.50, $1, $0.80, and even $0.60 to split my funds and accumulate more XRP. This dollar-cost averaging (DCA) approach allows me to capitalize on potential price inefficiencies while minimizing risk. With the current market dynamics and XRP's recent news, I believe we're setting up for a bullish scenario. By DCA'ing into the asset as it dips, I'm positioning myself for potential long-term gains. Key Levels: Initial allocation: $1.90 (missed opportunity) Target allocation levels: $1.50, $1, $0.80, $0.60 Bullish target: Rebalancing to $0.60, followed by potential upside Thesis: Ripple's acquisition of Hidden Road signals increased adoption and use cases for XRP Monthly bullish FVG presents a rebalancing opportunity DCA'ing into the asset as it dips minimizes risk and maximizes potential returns This trade idea is based on my analysis and market observations. I'm sharing my thought process to spark discussion and encourage others to share their insights. As always this is not financial advice! Do your own Research!