The goal of a successful trader is to make best setup, money is secondary.
Weekly timeframe: Overbought - RSI and Stochastic Oscillator. Hanging Man and Bearish Engulfing candlestick patterns. The market needs to retest the previous supports. Never forget that the market retest all the major prices before proceed with an uptrend or a downtrend move, as also never forget the direction of the market in the bigger timeframes. If you want to buy an asset do not fall in the trap: (buy the dip + buy the dip + buy the dip) = BUY THE DIP
Trading XAUUSD (gold vs. the U.S. dollar) during a USD bank holiday is generally a bad idea due to reduced liquidity and unpredictable price movements. With U.S. banks and financial institutions closed, major market participants are absent, leading to lower trading volumes. This lack of liquidity can cause erratic price action, wider spreads, and unexpected volatility spikes, making it harder to execute trades at desired levels. Additionally, with fewer institutional traders influencing the market, technical patterns and key support/resistance levels may not hold as expected. Instead of taking unnecessary risks in an illiquid market, it’s often better to wait for normal trading conditions when price action is more reliable and spreads are tighter. FUSIONMARKETS:XAUUSD
Due to US holiday, yesterday's gold didn't have much movement. However, it also didn't break above 2900. This is a confirmation of downside potential. I am expecting the price to go deeper at first to my daily target of 2855 then to my weekly target of 2790.
Gold (XAUUSD) may see a liquidity grab to the downside before continuing its bullish move. The price could sweep key support levels to collect orders before pushing higher. This move is common in smart money concepts, where big players manipulate price to trigger stop losses before driving the market in the intended direction. Traders should wait for confirmation signals and avoid early entries. Patience is key—once liquidity is grabbed, a strong bullish move could follow. Stay alert and trade wisely! ? Technical Analysis by Ali Khan
MRK, along with many othe rpharma stocks has taken some serious beating. But we like fear - as an opportunity- and it’s here( I dare say it) based on the bottom most will rejection, aka a shooting star. So here are my forecasts in my crystal ball:: 1. Overall Trend and Structure • Longer-Term Trend: MRK peaked near the $115–$120 region in late 2022/early 2023 and has since been making lower highs and lower lows on the weekly timeframe. This suggests a downward bias over the past 12+ months. • Recent Price Action: Price is hovering around the mid-$80s, testing support in the $80–$83 zone. This area held as support a few times in 2021–2022 and is now being revisited. • Break of Structure (BOS) & Change of Character (CHoCH) Markers: • The chart indicators label potential break-of-structure levels where bulls and bears exchanged control. • Since late 2022, these BOS levels have mostly favored the bears, confirming the downtrend. • A bullish CHoCH would require a strong close and sustained trading above the most recent swing high (somewhere in the $90–$92 zone on the weekly). 2. Key Technical Indicators 1. Stochastic Oscillator (Lower Panel) • Appears oversold or near the lower region. On a weekly timeframe, this sometimes suggests that bearish momentum could be losing steam. A bullish crossover from oversold levels often points to a short-term rebound. 2. Momentum Oscillators (e.g., RSI/MACD, if present) • While not explicitly shown, the lower indicator panel with wave-like patterns suggests momentum has been negative but may be stabilising. 3. Support & Resistance Levels • Immediate Support: $80–$83 zone. A weekly close below $80 could open the door to the mid-$70s or even $70. • Initial Resistance: $90–$92 (recent swing highs). Price needs to reclaim this region to confirm a potential bullish reversal on the weekly timeframe. • Secondary Resistance: $95–$100. If the price clears $92, this would be the next zone of overhead supply from prior consolidation. 3. Possible Scenarios & Probability Estimates Below are hypothetical scenarios with rough probability estimates, assuming no major market-wide shocks and stable macro conditions. Bullish Reversal Scenario (Est. 55–60% probability) 1. Hold Support around $80–$83: • If MRK holds above this region on a weekly closing basis, buyers may attempt a short-term bounce. • Timeframe: Could take 2–5 weeks for a solid weekly close confirming support. 2. Upside Targets: • First Target: $90–$92 (key swing high + psychological level). • Second Target: $95–$100 if price breaks and holds above $92 on strong volume. 3. Catalysts to Watch: • A weekly close above $92 would be a “change of character” from lower highs to a potential new uptrend on the weekly. • Bullish crossover in the Stochastics or MACD on the weekly. Continued Downtrend Scenario (Est. 40–45% probability) 1. Failure at $80 Support: • If the stock breaks below $80 on a weekly close, the downtrend likely continues. • Timeframe: A decisive break can happen within 1–3 weeks if sellers remain strong. 2. Downside Targets: • First Target: $75 region, near previous support levels. • Second Target: $70 if selling pressure accelerates and overall market sentiment remains weak. 3. Catalysts to Watch : • Weak earnings, lowered guidance, or broader market declines. • Stochastics remaining in oversold territory without crossing back up, indicating persistent downward momentum. 4. Trade Direction & Time Estimates • Short-Term (1–4 weeks): • Expect choppy price action around $80–$83. A near-term bounce is possible if momentum indicators turn bullish. • If a bounce materialises, watch $90–$92 as a critical resistance. • Medium-Term (2–3 months): • If bulls successfully defend $80 and break $92, a run to $95–$100 could happen by mid-spring to early summer. • Conversely, if $80 fails, the downtrend may persist into the $70s in a similar timeframe. 5. Risk Management Considerations 1. Confirm Volume & Momentum: • Wait for a weekly close above (or below) key levels ($80 support or $92 resistance) to confirm the trend direction. 2. Position Sizing: • If going long near $80 support, consider a stop-loss just below $80 (e.g., $78–$79) to limit risk. • If anticipating a breakdown, watch for confirmation (weekly close below $80) before entering short positions. 3. News & Fundamentals: • MRK is a large pharmaceutical company sensitive to drug approvals, patent news, and broader healthcare developments. Technicals alone might not capture sudden catalyst-driven moves. Final Thoughts • Most Likely Near-Term Path: A technical rebound attempt from $80–$83, but the stock must decisively clear $90–$92 to signal a genuine bullish reversal on the weekly chart. • Overall Bias: The multi-month trend is still down, so the burden of proof is on bulls to show a structural change in character. Again, these are probabilistic views. Good luck out there
Die RWE AG befindet sich seit Monaten charttechnisch in einem Abwärtstrend (1D). Da mein Handelsansatz hauptsächlich in der Trendfolge mit Einstieg aus der Korrektur besteht, würde ich daher normalerweise nur nach Short-Signalen suchen. Mit RWE hat mir der Aktien-Screener aber hier zusätzlich eine unterbewertete Aktie aufgezeigt, die aus meiner Sicht charttechnisch ein hohes Rebound-Potential bietet: - Kurs bildet derzeit kein neues Tief aus --> mögliche Bodenbildung - Kurs befindet sich im Chart am Tiefpunkt aus Juli 2021, diese Supportzone hat bereits im November 24 mit hohem Volumen gehalten. Wenn wir uns die Zone im 4h-Chart ansehen, erkennen wir erhöhte Handelsaktivität in diesem Preisbereich, s. Bild. https://www.tradingview.com/x/UoaMasWa/ In diesem Bereich scheint möglicherweise ein "fairer Preis" ermittelt worden zu sein. Sollte der Kurs von der Zone nach oben abprallen und die Widerstandszone 4H auf Schlusskursbasis durchbrechen, würde der Kurs gleichzeitig über den EMA200 schließen, was einen Trendwechsel begünstigen kann. In Summe ergeben sich 2 Szenarien für einen sehr attraktiven Counter-Trend-Trade: 1) High-Risk-Variante: Einstieg bei Kurs > aktueller Tagesschlusskurs mit Stop unter der Supportzone. 2) Medium-Risk-Variante: Einstieg bei Überschreiten des Widerstandsniveaus 4H bei ca. 30 EUR mit Stop unter dem letzten Swing-Low o.ä. Das Kursziel ist theoretisch bei > 40EUR zu sehen, was einen sehr attraktiven Rebound-Trade ermöglichen kann. Wie immer, nur meine persönliche Meinung, keine Kauf- oder Handelsempfehlung.
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