Bad things happen when the dollar gets too strong.... Well, "the bad thing" now seems to be the dollar itself crashing lower. What a difference 2 months can make! Waging economic war against our allies, pulling military defense from allies, isolationism has not been working as expected. In fact, Trump has overplayed his cards, and his tactics are backfiring. CAUTION is in order!! Target not reached! Forced on me. As mentioned back on January 18, 2025, when the dollar gets this strong, bad things happen. https://www.tradingview.com/chart/DXY/e6RlEhki-DXY-SINGLING-DANGER/ As you can now all see, bad things did happen. Markets are crashing, and we are headed for an economic depression! WARNING!
CRYPTOCAP:INJ – Setting Up for a Potential Impulsive Move After a sharp correction, CRYPTOCAP:INJ may be preparing for a strong rebound. In a previous idea, I forecasted a bottom at $8.5 — and it dipped even lower to $7, fully retracing last year's pump. The price broke below the bearish flag after a clear bearish divergence at the top. It also sliced through my green buy zone and is now sitting right on a critical support level at $8.40. ? Signs of recovery are starting to show: ? MACD is climbing and approaching the median line — a bullish crossover could ignite an impulsive rally. ? Price is stabilizing above the key $8.40 support. ? RSI is low and consolidating — signaling potential upside. ? Volume is quiet — often a precursor to strong moves. The target is to re-integrate the green liquidity zone, to prepare another explosive pump. ? Reminder: around this time last year, CRYPTOCAP:INJ pulled off a 4x rally. While past performance doesn't guarantee future results, the setup looks promising. ? DYOR | This is not financial advice. #INJ #CryptoAnalysis #Altcoins #TechnicalAnalysis #MACD #CryptoMarket #BreakoutSetup #DYOR
https://www.tradingview.com/x/H8BSEHke/ Yesterday's candlestick closed as a bear bar near its low with a prominent tail above. In our previous report, we said the market formed a tight trading range in the last 3-4 days (small yellow box). The market is in breakout mode. Traders will wait for a breakout from either direction and trade in the direction of the breakout. The market formed a breakout below the 4000 on Friday. The bulls want a reversal from a wedge pattern (Mar 25, Apr 9, and Apr 18) and a lower low major trend reversal. The problem with the bull's case is that they couldn't create bull bars with follow-through buying. They must create strong bull bars to show they are back in control. The bears want a retest of the January low. They want a large second leg sideways to down with the first leg being the April 2 to April 9 low. They got a breakout below the April 16 low on Friday. They need to create sustained follow-through selling to increase the odds of a measured move down. Exports for the first 15 days are up ITS: 16.95%, AmSpec: 13.55%. Production is slowly picking up, but not in a big way yet. Refineries' appetite to buy physical remains lukewarm with the recent sharp falling market. The market remains Always In Short. So far, the move down since April 1 is in a tight bear channel with strong bear bars. The selling pressure is stronger than the buying pressure (bull bars with no follow-through buying). Because this week closed near its low, the market may gap down next week. Small gaps usually close early. Traders want to see if the bears can create a follow-through bear bar to confirm the breakout below the 4000 level. If they can create follow-through selling, we may see a retest of the January low around the 3850-3800 area. Or will the market lack follow-through selling, and reverse back above 4000 instead? For now, odds slightly favor the market to trade at least a little lower.
Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Expanding triangles are my least favorite structure and we are in one. I have no bias here because both sides have reasonable arguments. Bulls just want this selling to become a bear trap and test up to the upper bear trend line around 69 and bears can see it as a bear flag that tested the 50% retracement of this bear leg. current market cycle: trading range on the monthly chart - daily chart is a bear trend that could be transitioning into a trading range again key levels: 55 - 69 bull case: Bulls see it as a failed acceleration down and want to retest the prior bear trend line around 68. Same target as last week but this week they closed the weekly bar above 64 which was my line in the sand. If they continue here, they will likely squeeze much higher again. 69 next target. Invalidation is below 60. bear case: I give the bears one more day to form a strong reversal but the odds are low. This breakout could go much higher and Friday looks like a give-up bar. Argument for the bears is that we are still at the 50% retracement and the breakout-retest of the March low 64. Any prices above 64.2 is invalidation for the bears. I will only view this as bearish again, if bears break the bull trend line from the 54.48 low and that’s currently around 61. Invalidation is above 64.2. short term: Neutral at 64. Above 64.2 bullish and only below 61 I think bears have taken control again. medium-long term - Update from 2025-04-20: This does look like another bear trap below 60, which was to be expected. Depending on next week I will write some more here. For now It’s still a bear trend until bulls can reclaim 72.
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This is a monthly chart and TV keeps forcing "Target reached" on my updates. As such i am reposting this chart I first issued back on April 1st, 2025, before our "LIBERATION DAY" FACEPALM! https://www.tradingview.com/chart/MMTW/ZVHtWAkt-MARKETS-NOT-OVERSOLD-CAUTION/ We are still not oversold on a monthly chart! WARNING! Click Boost, follow, subscribe!
LSE:ONDO : Potential Reversal in Sight Signs suggest that LSE:ONDO may have reached the bottom of its consolidation phase, having fully retraced to its August 2024 lows. Momentum is shifting: MACD is climbing toward the median — a breakout above could signal the start of an explosive uptrend. RSI remains neutral, leaving room for a strong move in either direction. Volume is near all-time lows, often a precursor to a breakout. If the projected move plays out, the next resistance levels (based on Fibonacci ratios) are: ? TP1: $0.94 ? TP2: $1.17 ? TP3: $1.35 ? DYOR | Not financial advice.
Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Neutral and very similar to dax, as most of the time. I do think we will see one more leg down in this current bear trend before we could go sideways for longer, until earnings become the absolute fucking shitshow I expect them to become. We get daily news about big companies not exporting to China or to the US due to tariffs. No one believes this will go down smoothly. Bear trend line holding so far, 50% retracement for this bear trend was 19483 and the spike high last week was 19388 and bulls could not get above it this week. The daily 20ema is also right above us and every time market touched it, we sold and closed below. Triangle will likely break on Tuesday and I am having wet dreams about going below 17000 again. current market cycle: bear trend but above 19388 it ends and we will be in a giant trading range key levels: 15500 - 19500 bull case: Bulls want this trend to end and crush the hopes for a third leg down. That has not changed. Their only target is 19388 and if they get it, market is completely neutral and they will likely go for 20000 again. Bulls still have the triangle argument but below 18100 that is gone as well. At this point I think only very positive news could save the bulls. Market is likely waiting for big earnings next week and if Tesla surprises downwards, we will hopefully crash this m* again. Invalidation is below 18000. bear case: Last week my assumption was that the tariff exemptions were enough to pump this above the bull spike from the previous week but that failed and we went lower since. If even that can not lift the market to higher highs, what will? Only a big agreement with the EU and/or China. How likely is that? This US government doesn’t even know how to articulate their goals in negotiations, how do you think you could guess it? Market is in maximum limbo and since we are still somewhat high enough, we could see more risk-off trading. Until bears can get below 18000, we likely continue sideways. 3 big resistances held and the bear trend line is intact. Bears are heavily favored to continue down and I expect a third leg. Can the third leg get much below 16400? I don’t know but I doubt it. Only a deep recession would get us there and for that we would need earnings going real bad. Below 18000 I expect 17200 to be the next big support but a retest of 16400/16500 could happen. Invalidation is above 19388. short term: Neutral. Sideways most likely until a clear breakout above or below. Below 18000 we could do 17500 or 17000 fast. Above 19388 market is free to test much higher again. medium-long term - Update from 2024-04-20: My most bearish target for 2025 was 17500ish, given in my year-end special. We had the clear W1 and W3 but now it’s messy. Only a big tariff agreement news can move the markets and that can go either way. You have no edge in guessing what will happen, so having huge swing positions right now does not make much sense. If earnings go bad, we will go much lower. What is the next big support to be hit? The lows of 2022 at 12565. Can we really get there? With a deep recession and some bigger failings, sure but for now it’s unrealistic to expect it.
If you find this information inspiring/helpful, please consider a boost and follow! Any questions or comments, please leave a comment! ZRO is worth keeping on the radar. Out of most altcoins it arguably has the cleanest setup for a potential bullish reversal—at least structurally. While it could be done here, I’m leaning on the idea that the Y wave still needs one more leg down. That’s typically the behavior we see: Y waves tend to be slower and more drawn out compared to the W wave. If that holds true again, the ideal target zone falls between $2.12 and $1.88. That would allow for a proper test of structure while staying within the bounds of the larger corrective patterns most likely target. This is still a bullish interpretation—but only after one more low and a meaningful reaction from it. That said, both the bull and bear counts are pointing down in the near-term. My personal invalidation sits above the (c) wave high. If ZRO clears that, this setup likely needs to be re-evaluated. Until then, any move beyond the orthodox end of wave A of the Y leg should be considered “enough” from a pattern swing perspective. Patience here could pay off—especially if price enters the key zone and shows strength. Trade safe, trade smart, trade clarity.
Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Neutral but below 21300 really bearish if the selling is decent. I do think we saw a double top bear flag past 2 weeks and are going down from here. Invalidation is clear, above 21700 I am wrong and this could go much higher because it likely means that bears are giving up. Below 21300 I expect 21000 to be hit and if a news bomb helps, much lower again. Market now failed 2 weeks at the prior upper bull trend line from 2023-05, 50% retracement for this bear trend and the daily 20ema. 3 big reasons why this will likely continue to be resistance. current market cycle: bear trend but very likely that we have seen the lows and have transitioned to a trading range - will have a definitive answer next week. key levels: 19000 - 21700 bull case: Decently bullish week but 21500 was and still is huge resistance. Bulls could not close anything above it and since they tried for 3 days staight, chances for them are not high that we will get the breakout above next week. Until bears can make lower lows below 21100, bulls are in control of this, since they have printed 3 consecutive bullish days and we are up 12% from the lows. Their only target now is to close a strong 1h bar above 21700 and then I think the last bears will cover and this goes straight to 22000. Invalidation is below 21100. bear case: Bears are keeping this a lower high but if market continues to poke at 21700, eventually it will break and more bears will cover. Bears have the 3 big arguments on their side: 50% retracement held, daily 20ema held and we have not made higher highs and so this could very well just be a giant bear flag ready to break down over the next days. Volume was atrocious last week, compared to the 2 prior weeks and next week we will likely seen a big move again. For now there are no positive news for the bulls and the trade war is in full swing. Even if we go above 21700, my base case is a revisit of 19000 or lower for the year. Invalidation is above 21605. short term: Neutral. Breakout is imminent and right now I very slightly favor the bears but market is currently more neutral than anything else. Bullish above 21700 and bearish below 21300. medium-long term from 2024-03-16: Bear trend is ongoing but for now I still think 19500 and below is an amazing buy if you can hold for years. Things will have to turn really bad for this market to find acceptance below the bull trend line from the covid lows and right now this trade war is just front running. Markets were not priced for risk 3 weeks ago but this drop was too much too fast. My bearish targets for this year are met and with the current environment I will not call for lower prices than 19000. If the trade war turns real bad, yeah sure but for now it’s not.