Key arguments in support of the idea. • Excessive Optimism Amid a Weak Market. • Economic Uncertainty Driven by Trump’s Policies. Investment Thesis The recent surge in Deere & Co. (DE) stock is difficult to justify. Despite the company’s technological edge, the agriculture equipment market remains weak. Recent earnings from competitors CNH Industrial (CNH) and AGCO Corporation (AGCO) painted a grim outlook for 2025, with both reporting continued sales declines in Q4 2024 and disappointing margin forecasts. Following DE’s earnings release, the stock rallied over 15%, even as the consensus EPS estimate for FY25 was revised downward from $21.86 to $19.43. Industry weakness is further confirmed by AEM reports. Notably, none of the major players provided clear guidance on how tariff increases would impact them, aside from vague hints that pricing adjustments might be necessary. Even if higher tariffs result in a supply shortage for agricultural equipment and spare parts in the U.S., we do not expect significant optimism for the sector. While price adjustments may provide some support, 2025 is shaping up to be a challenging year for farmers: • Tariff hikes could delay interest rate cuts, making it harder to finance new equipment purchases. • Trump has frozen IRA farm subsidies and initiated a deportation program, potentially leading to labor shortages. • According to Bloomberg consensus forecasts, corn and soybean prices are unlikely to rise, further pressuring farm incomes. Price Action & Trading Outlook Historically, DE has traded within a wide range, often experiencing pullbacks after post- earnings rallies, especially when the run-up lacked clear catalysts. While the stock has a track record of beating consensus estimates, the current setup presents a high risk of correction given its elevated valuation multiples and macro headwinds. We anticipate a downside move to $432 over the next two months, with a stop-loss at $505.
USOIL: Due to a drone attack on a Russian oil pipeline pumping station, the oil flow from Kazakhstan has decreased. David believes that the price will rebound to the upper side soon BUY:71.2 TP:71.6 TP:72 SL:71.00 If you agree with my analysis, please continue to pay attention. I will share my views for free later - (David) If you don't know when to trade and want to avoid risks, you can continue to pay attention. TVC:USOIL FX:USOIL
Another one of NASDAQ:SOBR https://www.tradingview.com/x/cnHxzyIh/
GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS It looks like the price is testing resistance, aiming for 2,970, with a bullish structure within a rising channel. A temporary pullback toward 2,908 is expected, as it aligns with a key support zone and Fibonacci levels. If the price holds, a rebound toward 2,970 is likely. However, if 2,908 fails, a deeper retracement toward 2,880 may occur. A break below 2,880 could signal a corrective phase, weakening the bullish outlook and potentially triggering further downside movement. Traders, if you find this analysis helpful or have your own insights, drop a comment below! I’d love to hear your thoughts .
The EURCHF currency pair price action sentiment appears bearish, supported by the longer-term prevailing downtrend. The recent oversold bounce back is retesting major resistance at 0.9512. The key trading level is at 0.9520, which is the current swing high. An oversold rally from the current levels and a bearish rejection from the 0.9520 level could target the downside support at 0.9380 followed by 0.9340 and 0.9300 levels over the longer timeframe. Alternatively, a confirmed breakout above 0.9520 resistance and a daily close above that level would negate the bearish outlook opening the way for further rallies higher and a retest of 0.9550 resistance followed by 0.9580 levels. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
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