Find a trend and stay on trend, take profit when you can and when happy.
Started to take a position in NTL in 2022, so was holding the bag for over two years. In 2024, decided to add to my position instead of take a 60% loss. Firstly, because they got a new CEO that appears reasonably competent, and seemed actually focussed of getting the mine into production - which I came to doubt was actually the focus for the previous Management. Then came a trickle of good news; New Government, open to being more supportive of extractive industries, New gravity mill was on order from Canada (no harmful chemicals used to extract the gold. There is deep-rooted anti-mining sentiment in NZ but I feel that the "small footprint" above-ground and the fact that they are not using harmful chemicals to extract the gold should make them less of a protest target), Then the gravity mill was in the country and being assembled (price still hadn't moved yet), Mill has a 100ton ore processing capacity (probably will need to be expanded at some point - but it is a start - at 4g/ton = NZD66,000 a day in revenue at current prices), New fast-track mining laws from Government issued, then clarified as also applying to gold mining, Then some big news; a new exploration permit was granted that is adjacent to the existing claim - and lies in the direction of the known gold strikes. There will be gold there, but the grades, locations, and depths are still an unknown. At least NTL will soon be adding a cash-flow to finance additional exploratory drilling. So, my 3x estimation is based on; No additional gold strikes in the new Rahu exploration area. No additional ore processing capacity being brought online (additional to the 100 ton capacity gravity mill that is; which isn't quite online as yet). So, in my eyes there was a significant margin of safety being created that could turn a good investment into a great one. We must always guard against excessive optimism, and I have defined "take profit" points identified already as mining can be a bit "boom-and-bust." In my opinion, since this share / stock was such a poor performer for so long, there is significant up-side. One of my major concerns is that such a large percentage of the indicated and inferred gold resource is of the less certain "inferred" variety. Will be hoping for additional positive news about this over the coming weeks and months. I have a reasonable time-horizon on this. Looking for a 200% gain in the next 3 to 5 years, although it may be much earlier than that. Best of luck everyone.
Finally, an investment idea! (after how much doom and gloom?) — Novo Nordisk. You will all be familiar with Ozempic, the Danish company’s flagship product and the reason so many celebrities, influencers, b listers and regular schmegular Americans are suddenly skinny. I ignored the stock for most of ‘23/24, because it was so expensive. I am still a value investor (for my sins) and I just didn’t see a lot of value there — it was priced in. Imagine my surprise as I was thinking about “megatrends” (vom) for the year ahead — AI, data, 'zempy. Novo stock has fallen 37.80% in the last six months. And you know what that means…that’s a real deal! Why is it a real deal? (Don’t you like booze stocks Eden?) Ozempic is not going away. At this point it is synonymous with weight loss as “Uber” is to ridesharing or Google is to search. Note this data per Barclays, from recently issued rx data in the US — Ozempic script issuance has grown +8.4%, while WeGovy slightly trails it at 7.4% — both owned by Novo. While Eli Lilly also makes a GLP, Novo is still the leader. Strong guidance from management on sales — +16% - 24% — roughly implies revenue of $48bn for ‘25 and $57bn for ‘26…that’s a compounder. America and much of the western world has an obesity problem. There is a clear incentive for governments to underwrite the drug because obesity has a clear social + fiscal cost on society — per UoA, the fiscal cost of obesity in NZ is at least $2bn¹. People have an incentive to use Ozempic, because they are vain. This is a nice hedge against the booze stocks I like so much. Benefit from both sides of the trade — buy booze at low teens multiples; buy Novo and benefit from lower drinking rates as there’s several studies that imply ‘Zempy reduces drinking. I don’t want Ozempic, because I like to live the good life. This does not mean the vast majority of people won’t use Ozempic. At the moment, one in eight Americans have used a GLP. That’s +334mn people. 40% of Americans are obsese. There’s a Lollapalooza effect happening here — a bunch of incentives — vain people, governments wanting less obese people, the various side health benefits of GLPs, etc. I like when a lot of incentives are aligned because you’re relying on psychology rather than projecting numbers on an excel spreadsheet. Novo has sold off recently due to a trial of its CagriSema drug missing expectations. Eyes on the prize, though — current GLPs, which still have plenty of market to saturate. Eli Lilly has traded up in recent times, while Novo has traded down. The two tend to trade in lockstep so the disconnect is an opportunity to buy the world’s leading GLP maker at a good price. Eli Lilly is the closest comp, but it trades at a 38x fwd multiple, while Novo trades at 20x — i.e. an almost 50% multiple discount (see chart). I like that too… Note analyst recs on chart also… This analysis is provided by Eden Bradfeld at BlackBull Research—sign up for their Substack to receive the latest market insights straight to your inbox.
Expect a crazy correction in gold. The first target ahead is 2840, where the price lands on the EMA 200 (2-hour timeframe) or EMA 84 (4-hour timeframe).
I would buy in the orange square. The lower the price to the bottom in this orange square, the more I would buy. The thicker blue line is long term support dating back to 2011. Check the support line on the RSI showing bullish convergence Be aware of breakdowns and fakeouts. Wars are growing, government defense spending is ever increasing.
I just had to say big thanks to @KivancOzbilgic as most if not all of these combined indicators are created and shared by his wizard. I combined various indicators into one which for me helps me greatly to find a trend and stay on trend.
Hey traders, could this be a selling opportunity for the EJ ? I have been waiting patiently for the pull back to take form under 4H, what is your opinion guys ?
Please look at these lines. I know whats coming. Trust me, I make bad trades consistently but this time it is different. PReTy LiNes.
Price got to a higher timeframe keylevel, consolidated, broke out and retested the resistance zone.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/BYpI0mJq/ Dow Jones Index violated a resistance line of a narrow consolidation range on a 4H time frame. Probabilities are high that the market will continue growing. Next resistance - 44820 ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️