Bearish divergence on the hourly RSI. If we close below the uptrend, I see us down to first support which is, in my view, flimsy, so could result in a second leg down to the second support. Risk profile looks nice relative to the top of the red daily fib-band.
THIS IS THE TIME FOR BITCOIN TO PROVE ITSELF AS DIGITAL GOLD. Risk = 6 Reward Smell of fear in markets Spot BTC ETFs available as well as many other routes for institutional adoption Friendly US administrative crypto stance Chance for BTC to catchup people with their pants down (squeeze) Markets de-leveraged and de-risked due to very recent cliff dive by markets Investment Analysis: Bitcoin (BTC) Bitcoin, the pioneering decentralized cryptocurrency, has established itself as a significant asset class with a market capitalization exceeding $1 trillion as of April 2025. Priced at $62,500, it has seen a 5.08% increase over the past month and a 45.35% rise year-to-date. This analysis delves into Bitcoin’s investment potential, focusing on macroeconomic factors, monetary policy, fiscal policy, unemployment, inflation (including tariffs), US and Chinese bonds, and the strength of the US dollar (DXY). Macroeconomics The global macroeconomic environment in 2025 shapes Bitcoin’s outlook: Global Economic Context: Uncertainty driven by trade disruptions and geopolitical tensions enhances Bitcoin’s appeal. For instance, a severe tariff scenario (e.g., 60% on Chinese goods) could reduce US GDP by 2.1% in 2026, amplifying economic volatility. Bitcoin often thrives as a hedge during such periods. US Economic Trends: The US economy is slowing toward its potential growth rate, supported by stable inflation near 2% and low unemployment. T https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/bk6bhaiX-Update-Elliot-wave-says-no/ his mixed picture positions Bitcoin as a diversification tool amid uncertainty. Emerging Markets: Recovery in regions like Colombia contrasts with US-China trade tensions. Bitcoin’s decentralized nature makes it attractive in areas facing currency instability or capital controls. Bitcoin benefits from macroeconomic instability, reinforcing its role as a "digital gold" alternative. Monetary Policy Central bank policies significantly influence Bitcoin’s price dynamics: Federal Reserve: The Fed is anticipated to implement modest rate cuts in 2025 to avert an economic slowdown. Lower interest rates decrease the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like Bitcoin, historically driving price increases during monetary easing. Global Monetary Environment: Accommodative policies from institutions like the European Central Bank and Bank of Japan sustain global liquidity, supporting risk assets such as Bitcoin. Money Supply Dynamics: With a fixed supply of 21 million coins, Bitcoin stands out as a potential shield against inflationary monetary policies. As central banks expand money supplies, its scarcity becomes a key draw. Monetary easing and Bitcoin’s fixed supply create a favorable backdrop for price appreciation. Fiscal Policy Government fiscal strategies indirectly impact Bitcoin: US Fiscal Outlook: The US faces a choice between stimulus and consolidation. Increased spending could elevate inflation, boosting Bitcoin’s appeal as a hedge. Conversely, austerity might temper inflation, potentially reducing demand. Global Fiscal Pressures: High debt levels constrain expansive fiscal policies worldwide, possibly slowing growth. Bitcoin’s independence from traditional systems makes it appealing in this context. Tariffs as Fiscal Levers: Proposed tariffs could raise government revenue but also increase costs, contributing to inflation. This could drive investors toward Bitcoin. Fiscal expansion and inflationary pressures align with Bitcoin’s strengths as an alternative asset. Unemployment Labor market conditions reflect economic health and influence Bitcoin: US Labor Market: Unemployment is projected to remain low at 4.0%–4.1%, signaling economic resilience. While this supports traditional investments, Bitcoin often gains traction during economic shifts or as a diversification option. Global Trends: Slight unemployment upticks in regions like Canada and Europe may indicate softness, potentially increasing Bitcoin’s safe-haven appeal. Low unemployment supports economic stability, but Bitcoin’s role shines in transitional phases. Inflation (Including Tariffs) Inflation dynamics, intensified by trade policies, are pivotal for Bitcoin: US Inflation: Forecasted at 2.5%–2.9% in 2025, with core rates slightly higher, inflation remains moderate. Bitcoin’s fixed supply positions it as a potential inflation hedge, especially if pressures rise. Tariff Impacts: A 10% tariff on Chinese imports could add 0.1% to inflation, with broader tariffs amplifying this effect. Higher inflation might enhance Bitcoin’s store-of-value narrative. Global Inflation Risks: Commodity price surges or geopolitical tensions could further elevate inflation, indirectly supporting Bitcoin’s price. Inflationary pressures, particularly from tariffs, bolster Bitcoin’s investment case. US and Chinese Bonds Bond markets reflect risk appetite and affect Bitcoin’s attractiveness: US Bonds: Relatively high yields currently favor bonds over Bitcoin for safety-conscious investors. However, anticipated rate cuts could lower yields, shifting capital toward Bitcoin’s growth potential. Chinese Bonds: As the world’s second-largest bond market, China’s bonds face pressure from economic slowdowns and trade disputes. Instability here could drive capital into decentralized assets like Bitcoin. Yield Dynamics: Bitcoin lacks yield, but its capital appreciation potential shines when bond yields decline. Falling bond yields could redirect investment flows toward Bitcoin. Dollar Strength (DXY) The US dollar’s strength inversely affects Bitcoin: Current Dollar Trends: A strong DXY increases Bitcoin’s cost in other currencies, potentially reducing global demand. Recently, the dollar has maintained strength, posing a headwind. Monetary Policy Influence: Expected Fed rate cuts could weaken the dollar, making Bitcoin more appealing to international investors. Historical Patterns: A weaker dollar often correlates with Bitcoin price surges, reflecting its role as a dollar alternative. A softening dollar could catalyze Bitcoin’s next rally. Growth Projections Bitcoin’s price trajectory hinges on broader trends: Adoption Momentum: Growing institutional uptake, including Bitcoin ETFs and corporate treasury allocations, underpins demand. Technological Edge: Blockchain advancements enhance Bitcoin’s utility and security, supporting its long-term value. Price Potential: Projections suggest Bitcoin could reach $80,000–$100,000 by the end of 2025, implying a 28%–60% upside from its current $62,500 level. Conclusion Bitcoin, at $62,500, offers a compelling investment case in the 2025 landscape: Tailwinds: Accommodative monetary policy, moderate inflation, and economic uncertainty enhance Bitcoin’s appeal. Its fixed supply and decentralized nature align with fiscal expansion and potential currency weakening. Headwinds: A strong dollar and elevated bond yields may limit near-term gains, while fiscal tightening could reduce inflationary support. With potential to hit $80,000–$100,000 by year-end, Bitcoin is well-positioned for growth, particularly if rate cuts materialize and global uncertainty persists. Its dual role as a speculative asset and a hedge against traditional financial risks makes it a strategic portfolio component. Investors should watch dollar strength and bond yield trends as key indicators.
Shares of Nvidia Corporation (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:NVDA ) have gained over 3% on Friday 11th April. The positive results come after U.S. markets rallied on tariff news. President Trump announced a 90-day pause on new tariffs. Reciprocal tariffs for most countries dropped to 10%, sparking investor optimism. Major U.S. indices rose sharply following the announcement after being under pressure from rising trade tensions. The pause was seen as a welcome shift toward calmer negotiations. However, Trump excluded China from this relief. Instead, he stated that tariffs on Chinese goods would increase to 125%. This came after China announced new retaliatory tariffs on U.S. imports. The tough stance toward China contrasted with the softened approach to other countries. Despite the relief, market uncertainty remains. Investors are unsure whether the rally will last. Ongoing trade disputes, especially with China, could disrupt momentum. Nvidia's price rose to $110.78, gaining $14.99 on Friday's session. The stock reached an intraday high of $111.53 and a low of $107.48. The current resistance sits at $153.13 high. Technical Analysis Nvidia bounced sharply off the $92 support zone, highlighted by strong buying pressure. The RSI sits at 49, indicating neutral momentum. A clear resistance lies near $153.13 high. If Nvidia breaks this level, a move toward $180 is likely. If it fails, price may revisit the $92 zone. Two scenarios are possible. The stock could either continue upward to $180 or face rejection and fall back. Watch the $153 level closely for confirmation.
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Today looks like it is a completion of a B wave, so I expect C down into Monday and Tuesday. I'm looking for some selling into the end of the day.
Bitcoin / BTCUSD continues to replicate the 2014-2017 Cycle, giving us a clear perspective of the bullish trend amidst the high volatility since the start of the year. The different phases since the bottom are identical between the two Cycles and right now we are on Phase 4, supported firmly by the 1week MA50. Hard to believe but if history continues to repeat itself, BTC may skyrocket as high as $300k by the end of this Cycle. Follow us, like the idea and leave a comment below!!
Pattern: Completed 5-Wave Impulse + ABC Zigzag Correction Current Price: 1.3056 Forecast: Bearish B-Wave Reversal Incoming? Technical Breakdown: Major impulse from 2007 to 2022 marked as 1 to 5 A corrective ABC move completed at the key resistance zone Price currently facing rejection from the C wave top High probability of a B-Wave trap forming before a drop to the 1.14 zone Strong confluence with historical structure and Fibonacci retracement Next Move: Watch for a weekly candle close below 1.28 to confirm the reversal. Bears may target the 1.14 zone in the next leg down. Wave Structure Visualized (Top-Right Inset): Shows possible B-Wave drop before bullish C continuation — a perfect trap zone for early bulls. Trade Plan: Short bias below 1.30 with SL above 1.32 Target: 1.18–1.14 zone Re-assess price action near 1.14 for long opportunities Stay Sharp, Stay Green!
There is a strong support zone holding on the weekly timeframe, and it's exactly from this level that a reversal signal has appeared on the four-hour chart, along with a structure shift and a candle close. Moreover, the RSI indicates a bullish divergence. Now, it's just the weekly trendline that needs to be broken—once that happens, nothing can stop ETH from turning bullish.
Long-term structure points to upside potential, initially toward $6. Short-term, expect consolidation or a brief dip toward $1 in a worst-case move. Patience may pay.
Currently, gold prices are exhibiting an upward trend, fluctuating between $3230 and $3233. Based on market analysis, it is anticipated that gold prices will continue to rise. It is recommended to enter long positions near $3230, with a target profit around $3235 to secure short-term gains. Continue to monitor market developments, maintain profits, and adjust stop-profit levels as necessary to navigate potential market fluctuations.