? CRUDE – 16th week of the base cycle (28 weeks). A double bottom has formed, signaling the start of the second phase. The extreme forecast on March 19 pushed crude upward from a sideways trend. However, the beginning of the second phase is very weak. A strong resistance level lies ahead at 70 on current futures. ? My bearish outlook remains unchanged, as outlined in my summer 2024 crude oil post. The crude market has been in a sideways trend since fall 2022. This resembles the 2010-2014 period. Timing suggests a resolution in 2025. However, this does not mean history will repeat exactly—it is simply a similar setup. We will continue to navigate based on the current extreme forecasts. ⚠️ The current base cycle cannot yet be classified as bearish, as it has not broken its starting point. Watch for the midpoint of retrograde Mercury on March 24. The next important extreme forecasts for crude are March 27 and March 31.
It is my experience from EUR USD in 15 Min should become til a strong FVG and after 40 Pips downtrends it needs to correction the sell trend
? GOLD – 4th week of the new base cycle (15-20+ weeks), which began with retrograde Venus on March 3 from the extreme forecast level of October 28 (2850 on current futures). The start of retrograde Mercury had no impact on gold’s bullish trend. Mercury simply lacked the energy, as Venus is far stronger. Gold entered a correction at the pivot forecast on March 19, which I mentioned last week in the context of the stock market. ⚠️ Holding the long position from the extreme forecast on March 3. The movement range to the pivot forecast on March 19 for GC futures exceeded USD12K per contract. The next extreme forecast for gold is March 24 – the midpoint of retrograde Mercury. There is also a pivot forecast on March 27, but that is more relevant to crude.
rounding top pattern forming but yet to fill top shape. Aiming 25000 next week.
Next week, the trend of USOIL still remains highly uncertain. Technically, the current price is continuously fluctuating within a range. Around $70 serves as a strong resistance level, while $66.05 is a key support level. Fundamentally, the tense geopolitical situation and the supply decisions of OPEC+ provide some support for oil prices. However, the slowdown in global economic growth, coupled with the increase in US crude oil production, exerts downward pressure on oil prices. Barring unforeseen events, USOIL is likely to trade in the range of $66 - $70. Once the key levels are broken through, the direction of the trend will become clear. In terms of trading operations, it is recommended to adopt a "buy low and sell high" strategy within the range of $67.5 - $69.5. I will share trading signals every day. All the signals have been accurate for a whole month in a row. If you also need them, please click on the link below the article to obtain them.
? S&P500 – 10th week of the base cycle (average 20 weeks), which began with the pivot forecast on January 13, now in the second phase. The bear is completing the overdue 50-week and 4-year cycles. Target levels are outlined here. The expected range for the base cycle low is mid-May to mid-June. At this point, I anticipate a reversal between the extreme forecasts of June 16 and June 23, marking the start of a new 4-year cycle. The beginning of any cycle, even a bearish one, is always bullish, and the start of a 4-year cycle can be very strong. ? Meanwhile, retrograde Venus and Mercury are predictably working against each other. As I mentioned in early March and in previous posts, retrograde Venus played out with a one-week lag upward. Retrograde Mercury on March 17 did not support the phase start as I expected last week; instead, it delayed the bullish move but lacked the energy to reverse it. Venus remains the stronger influence. The situation resembles the beginning of the second phase of the base cycle. Note the weak start of this phase. ⚠️ Technically, we are in a bearish base cycle. Therefore, the second phase is also expected to be bearish, with a short rally followed by a steep drop below the opening. A strong resistance level is at the familiar 5850 mark. The next extreme forecast is March 24 – the midpoint of retrograde Mercury. There is also a pivot forecast on March 27, but that is more relevant to crude.
The SPX is approaching a make-or-break moment. Over the next two weeks, we should gain clarity on whether the broader market is gearing up for new all-time highs, or if it's time to consider the possibility of a top forming — potentially signaling the onset of a more serious downside move (i.e., a bear market). Key resistance levels are in focus. Any strong rejection from these areas will be interpreted as a sign of weakness and could serve as an early signal for a lower low in the making. The red line on the chart represents a critical threshold — price should not close below it on a daily basis (and ideally, not on a weekly basis either). Also worth noting: the 5400 level holds significant liquidity, making it a key area to watch. For now, the approach is to remain cautiously long, as long as these levels continue to hold.
1- After an Uptrend price is moving in a range. 2- Price has bounced from the bottom of the range. One can expect the price to move towards the top of the range.
AUDUSD on 1h chart, is most likely going down once the red trendline breaks. That will also be a break of a triangle (RED) A large bearish flag with Head and shoulder pattern almost complete. The centre line and the trendline break frequently meets the centre of the swing range. So if the red trendline breaks we are looking at 130 pips down! which is the height of the shoulder if not the head to the breakpoint. Also a remote possibility that it will break upwards from the triangle
we are going bullish soon ,its respecting sib levels and rsi indicates bullish pattern risght away ,emas are reacting as support ,waiting for one bullish engulfing canlde to confirm longs,good time to buy spot