Hi Traders, This Element shows us a huge divergence. I think this is a chance to ride this wave. Be careful and keep an eye on the BTC too! I'm just a Paper trader :-)
we need close above this FVG and make it to IFVG !! Orderflow is still Bullish !!
Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr bitcoin: Neutral. 91000 - 100000 is the range and market is going back and forth in it. No deeper meaning to this since we have been in it for 3 weeks now, which means the market is in balance. We will likely see a breakout next week and both sides have equal chances as of now. comment: 2024 closed at 93401, so my guess for the close was decent. Now bears need to start picking it up again and get a daily close below 90k. Since we are in a tight trading range, the market is in balance and we could also retest 108k before more downside. Nothing I am currently very interested in trading. current market cycle: Bull trend with a blow-off top. We are at the very end of it. It will turn soon. Daily close below 90k is confirmation for the bears. key levels: 90k - 110k bull case: Bulls have going for them that we are in a trading range close to 100k. The problem for them is, the longer they can’t find acceptance above 100k, the more likely it becomes that we test down again. A daily close above 100k is what they need for probably a retest of the ath at 108k. Invalidation is below 90k. bear case: Bears still not doing enough. I start writing more for them once we have a daily close below 90k. I still expect the selling to accelerate below it but for now we are stuck at the highs. First target below 90k is the 50% retracement for the Trump rally at 88k. Below that the breakout retest 74k. Invalidation is above 101k. short term: Neutral again between 90k and 100k. Clear invalidation levels given, now it’s about patience. I highly doubt bulls can get another leg up. Same outlook was last weeks. medium-long term: 75000 is my biggest target for now and until bears get there, any lower target is just unreasonable. My bias is bearish going into 2025 and I think the odds of a bigger leg down are good. current swing trade: None chart update: Nothing
The current market situation is uncertain. The market often moves contrary to public sentiment. Currently, most expect a correction. ETF inflow/outflow data indicates significant outflows from December 19, 2024, to January 2, 2025, which is evident in the BTC chart. On January 3, 2025, there was an inflow of $905M. In a bearish scenario, panic could dominate the market, making it difficult for BTC whales to sustain distribution above $100,000. However, if a bullish scenario unfolds, the $91,000–$108,000 zone could act as a strong support level after a price increase to $135,000 or the 161.8% Fibonacci level. This bullish scenario would become even more significant if the growth aligns with major international events at the end of January, February, or March. ? 1. Bullish Scenario: The price breaks through the current resistance levels, targeting up to $136,000 or the 161.8% Fibonacci level. 2. Bearish Scenario: A correction to the $80,000–$90,000 range or the 38.2-61.8% Fibonacci levels, with a potential test of the $88,000 support level aligned with the 800 EMA. ? About Me: I maintain a personal trading journal. I don't possess extrasensory abilities or insider information. Disclaimer: Trading involves risk—always do your own research and seek professional advice. We are not responsible for any financial losses. #DYOR Share your thoughts in the comments below ?
Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr wti crude oil futures: Bullish until bears come around. Big bull surprise to start 2025 with strong follow through above 72. Market has still a bit room to the bear trend line, that started in 2024-04, around 75. I can’t see this breaking above 77.38 and I have my doubts about a break of the trend line, so longs are no option for me here. I want to see selling pressure next week and wait for decent second signal before shorting this. comment: Big bull surprise early in 2025. I did not expect the market to just melt through 3 months of lower highs. We now have the big bear trend line right above us around 75 and it’s reasonable to expect market to get there before we could see bigger profit taking. Any short would need a stop 77.4 but I still think the odds are very good for the bears that we won’t make a higher high. Volume is still garbage so once we have decent selling pressure, I will take that swing short. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 70 - 75 bull case: Bulls want 75 and a retest of the bear trend line. Easy as that. They could overshoot it some but market has respected it two times before so I expect the trend line to hold. Volume is atrocious so it’s possible that the market just melts lower over the next 1-2 weeks after the retest. It would be very strong by the bulls if they keep the market above 70 now. Invalidation is below 70. bear case: Bears have nothing for now but since we have made lower highs since 2023-09, they expect this to be one as well and the closer they can short to 77 the better. It’s too early to short and bears need to build much bigger selling pressure. We will probably have to go sideways first before this can come down again. Invalidation is above 77.4. short term: Bullish until bears come around. Longing pullbacks is decent until we make lower lows again. Every touch of the 2h 20ema was bought, so keep looking for longs close to it. medium-long term - Update from 2025-01-02: Still no better medium-long term outlook to write about. The triangle has been going on for so long, it’s highly unlikely that we will break above it. current swing trade: None chart update: Nothing
https://www.tradingview.com/x/FKsyGvOz/ My dear friends, Please, find my technical outlook for SILVER below: The instrument tests an important psychological level 29.80$ Bias - Bearish Technical Indicators: Supper Trend gives a precise Bearish signal, while Pivot Point HL predicts price changes and potential reversals in the market. Target - 29.30$ About Used Indicators: Super-trend indicator is more useful in trending markets where there are clear uptrends and downtrends in price. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Update : Exactly as we analyzed !! still Bullish !
Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr gold futures: Neutral but slightly bearish if bears get follow through on Monday. Market tested the 50% of the last leg down and found more sellers than buyers. Bulls now have 3 pushed up which went nowhere as of now. We also closed right at the daily 20ema so this is as neutral as it gets. If bulls get a daily close above 2680, we can continue to 2700 and below 2650 I expect more downside to 2600/2620. comment: Likely more neutral than anything else. 50% retracement of recent bear leg is 2680 and market stopped there on Friday. We have more room to the upside inside this bigger triangle. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 2620 - 2720 bull case: Bulls want a retest of 2700 but they have tried 3 times now and price went nowhere. Friday could have been a retest of the breakout but bulls would need a very strong reversal on Monday to confirm that. Bulls don’t have much until they get above 2680 and then the upside could be limited to 2700. No matter how you put it, this is not strong buying by the bulls and nothing to get excited about. Invalidation is below 2600. bear case: Bears sold every new high at made money for 3 weeks now. They also fail to make lower lows and that is why we are in a bigger triangle with bad follow-through after every decent bull/bear bar. I think Friday was strong enough to expect a bit more downside but where do you put your stop? 2680? Very high probability market will retest it or go above before it turns again. Most bears would like to short closer to 2700. Invalidation is above 2730. short term: Neutral inside given range. medium-long term - Update from 2024-01-02: If we break strongly above 2700, we will likely retest 2740-2760 and depending on that move, we will either stay inside the big range 2560 - 2760 or retest 2800 or even higher. current swing trade: None chart update: Nothing
Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr sp500 e-mini futures: Neutral. Much less bearish than dax because the pull-back above 6100 was so strong. We are right below the most important price 6000 and with it the bear case lives or dies. If bulls can go above again and test the bear trend line around 6050, the odds for the bears become really bad. Much more likely outcome then is more sideways inside the triangle. If bears do a strong move below 5900 on Monday/Tuesday, they took control again and odds are decent for the big second leg down. It’s 50/50 for me right now who wins this. comment: 6000 is the big round number for both sides to close above or below. The longer bears can close below, the better the odds for a second leg down. I do think bear’s fumbled their chance for now a bit with the strong bullish close on Friday. If bulls continue higher on Monday we will likely test the bear trend line 6040ish again and it will be interesting to see if big sellers come around again. If the bears would have been stronger, this second bounce at 5870 wouldn’t have happened. The current triangle could continue for couple more days. current market cycle: Trading range key levels: 5870 - 6100 bull case: Strong close on Friday and it’s reasonable to expect more upside on Monday. The current descending triangle pattern has room for a couple of more days. Bulls who scaled into longs with a stop below the October and November low 5797 are making money and bears would need to build bigger selling pressure below 5860 for them to cover. I don’t think many bulls will hold long on Monday if we fail to trade above 6000. Invalidation is below 5860. bear case: Bears are not doing enough below 5800. Bulls printed a decent double bottom to buy. Now they need to stop the market from finding acceptance above 6000 again. If we stay below 6000 and go more sideways between 5860-6000, I do think bears are favored for the second leg down because scaling in bulls can’t hold long if we break below 5860 and late bulls who got trapped above 6100 will likely also give up on a bigger pull-back above 6100 again. Invalidation is above 6100. short term: Neutral between 5900 - 6000, bullish above 6000 for at least 6040 and bearish only below 5860. Shorts near 6050 are great r:r wise and I will take them for a swing. medium-long term - Update from 2024-12-22: Ultimately 5200-5300 in 2025. Again, rough guess as of now and since we have not seen a strong first bear leg, these targets are the lowest I am willing to give an honest outlook about. If bears surprise and we see a huge leg down to 5500, we will go much lower for the second and third leg. current swing trade: None chart update: Nothing
Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr dax xetra: Bulls printed 5 consecutive bull bars but price went nowhere. We are still below the daily 20ema and this looks like a shallow pull-back in a bear trend. Bears need a strong close below 19800 to confirm it. If bulls close above 20000 again, bears could give up and we test higher again. Market is in breakout mode and we will see a bigger move next week. Right now I see the odds 60/40 for the bears. comment: I don’t have anything to add to my tl;dr paragraph. current market cycle: Bull trend or trading range. Only a daily close below 19600 would be my confirmation for the trading range. key levels: 19600 - 20100 (below 19600, 19000/19200 come into play / above 20100, 20400 or higher is possible again) bull case: Bulls are preventing the market from making a new low for now but they fail to close daily bars above 20000. Once they do that again with follow-through, they likely took control of the market again and we could expect higher prices above 20200 again. Their first target above 20000 is to close the bear gap to 20240 and above that there is no more resistance until 20400. Invalidation is below 19600. bear case: Bears are doing good in keeping the market below 20000 which is the most important price for both sides. I still favor the bears to get a second leg down to 19200/19400 but those odds will only rise if we close below 19600. Market is currently in balance. Invalidation is above 20100. short term: Slightly bearish but once this goes with some momentum above 20000 again that bearish bias is gone. Bears have the setup here and now and if they fail to break down below 19600 early next week I will view this as neutral or bullish if we go above 20100. medium-long term from 2024-12-22: Any short near 20000 is reasonable if you can hold for another 1000 points higher. 17000 is much more likely than 21000 though. My first target for the next months is 19000, followed by 17700ish and ultimately down to 16000-16300 in 2025. current swing trade: None chart update: Added bear gap and still having my preferred path down as a two legged correction down to 19000.