Since the uptrend began in November 2023, the AMEX:SPY has experienced a drawdown of approximately 9-10%, with 11% being the maximum drawdown. Similarly, drawdowns have typically overshot below the 200-day moving average (200DMA) by an average of 3%. By this measure, the worst-case scenario for this drawdown could see AMEX:SPY fall to the $544 to $542 range. I think we could see a bounce within this week.? SP:SPX
On January 30, the American payment services provider Mastercard presented results that far exceeded forecasts. It earned 12,874 million dollars (12,351 million euros) in 2024, 15% more than the previous year. Net income reached 28,167 million dollars (27,023 million euros), 12.2% more. Meanwhile, operating costs reached 12,585 million dollars (12,074 million euros), 13.5% more. Mastercard CEO Michael Miebach commented on the results: “This quarter we have achieved good results, with net income growth of 14%, or 16% without taking into account currencies.” He continued: “Our diverse capabilities in payments and services and solutions, including the acquisition of Recorded Future this quarter, set us apart and position us well for long-term growth, as we outlined at our investor day.” ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ---> What does it look like technically? DESPITE THE STOCK MARKET CRASH we are immersed in due to the TRADE WAR, if we look at the chart, the trend is still clearly bullish and has not yet broken ANY important support that would put it in danger, therefore, EVERYTHING INDICATES THAT WE ARE FOUND WITH A GREAT OPPORTUNITY TO GO LONG, since the market has fallen a lot and it is logical to expect an upward correction in the next few days of the SP500 index, which will logically support the rise in the price of Mastercard. Furthermore, the price today touched the 61.8% Fibonacci and respected it (DESPITE THE CRASH), which gives us another clue that the area is respected and is possibly the floor of the next bullish impulse. -------------------------------------- Strategy to follow: ENTRY: We will open 2 long positions if the H4 candle closes above 553 POSITION 1 (TP1): We close the first position in the 575 area (+4%) --> Stop Loss at 530 (-4%). --> Ratio 1:1 POSITION 2 (TP2): We open a Trailing Stop type position. --> Initial dynamic Stop Loss at (-4%) (coinciding with the 530 of position 1). --> We modify the dynamic Stop Loss to (-1%) when the price reaches TP1 (575). ------------------------------------------- SET UP EXPLANATIONS *** How do you know which 2 long positions to open? Let's take an example: If we want to invest 2,000 euros in the stock, what we do is divide that amount by 2, and instead of opening 1 position of 2,000, we will open 2 positions of 1,000 each. *** What is a Trailing Stop? A Trailing Stop allows a trade to continue gaining value when the market price moves in a favorable direction, but automatically closes the trade if the market price suddenly moves in an unfavorable direction by a certain distance. That certain distance is the dynamic Stop Loss. -->Example: IF the dynamic Stop Loss is at -1%, it means that if the price drops by -1%, the position will be closed. If the price rises, the Stop Loss also rises to maintain that -1% in the rises, therefore, the risk is increasingly lower until the position becomes profitable. In this way, very strong and stable price trends can be exploited, maximizing profits.
Gold is on a relentless hunt for the $2,720 level, navigating through a well-defined ascending channel where the upper boundary has acted as long-term resistance and the lower boundary as dynamic support. The price has respected this structure, with multiple touches reinforcing its integrity. However, a recent double top near the upper boundary signals potential bullish exhaustion, increasing the probability of a downside move. If the price remains below this key level, further declines are likely, with $2,720 emerging as a crucial support zone—aligned with the golden pocket on the Fibonacci retracement, making it a prime area for a reaction. The Alternative Scenario: The New Economy's Bullish Case Despite the bearish structure, gold in the new economy presents an alternative bullish outlook. A smaller bullish channel has formed between $2,789 and $2,855, suggesting that buyers are still in control within this range. If this mini uptrend holds, it could fuel another breakout attempt above recent highs, invalidating the bearish scenario and positioning gold for a renewed push toward higher levels. For now, gold is at a crossroads, with $2,720 as the primary target on the downside—but if buyers defend this level or sustain the new bullish channel, the uptrend may persist in the evolving economic landscape.
If this Monthly Chart for March holds then the NASDAQ:QQQ is COOKED! Next Level: $450 Crash level: $370-$400 ? - Breaking out of WCB Trend - Volume is WAY less than 202 Market Crash (Can get worse) - Breaking out of Bullish Channel - Topping tail wicks Not financial advice
? Gold (XAU/USD) Trade Plan https://www.tradingview.com/x/eD9xgE4n/ **? Market Structure:** Gold is near a key support zone, making this an important level for both buyers and sellers. --- ### **? Bullish Scenario (Buy Trade Plan)** ? **Entry:** **Above $2,893** (After strong confirmation) ? **Take Profit (TP):** - TP1: **$2,898** - TP2: **$2,903** - TP3: **$2,9108** ⛔ **Stop Loss (SL):** **Below $2,880** ✅ **Confirmation:** Price must hold above **$2,888** with bullish candles or a strong breakout above $2,893. --- ### **? Bearish Scenario (Sell Trade Plan)** ? **Entry:** **Below $2,880** (After clear breakdown) ? **Take Profit (TP):** - TP1: **$2,875** - TP2: **$2,870** - TP3: **$2,865** ⛔ **Stop Loss (SL):** **Above $2,888** ✅ **Confirmation:** A strong bearish candle closing below **$2,880** increases the probability of further downside. --- ### **? Risk Management Tips:** ✔ **Always use stop loss** to protect capital. ✔ **Secure partial profits** at TP1 and adjust SL to breakeven. ✔ **Avoid trading in a choppy market; wait for clear breakouts.**
Gold (XAU/USD) Technical Analysis – 1H Chart ?? ? Overview: The chart shows Gold (XAU/USD) in a downtrend after failing to break above resistance. Key zones are marked: Resistance (~$2,920 - $2,960) and Support (~$2,840 - $2,860). A potential bearish move is suggested towards the support area. ? Resistance Zone (~$2,920 - $2,960) ? Price has struggled to break this level multiple times, leading to rejection. Sellers are likely in control, pushing the price lower. ? Support Zone (~$2,840 - $2,860) ?️ This area has historically acted as a strong demand zone. Possible price reaction here, with a bounce back up if buyers step in. ? Bearish Scenario: A retest of minor resistance (~$2,900) before continuing downward. If price reaches support, a reversal or further breakdown could occur. ? Bullish Recovery? Only a strong breakout above $2,920 would shift momentum to bullish. ? Conclusion: Short-term bias: Bearish ? Key watch: Price action at support (~$2,840) for possible bounce ?
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AUD/USD succumbed to the renewed selling pressure and retreated to three-day lows near 0.62750, flirting at the same time with the temporary 55-day SMA.
Gold is showing bullish signs, but I am waiting for stronger confirmation before entering. Here’s my breakdown: The Technical Analysis was done on different Timeframes (15m,30,1H,2H,4H,1D) ? Technical Analysis: • Price rejected strong support with two long-wick candles. • Bollinger Bands show oversold conditions. • Williams %R confirms price is in the oversold zone. • Price is at VAL on the PVP indicator, signaling a potential long setup. • Price grabbed Liquidity ? Fundamental & Sentiment Analysis: • Seasonality: March has a 50-60% historical bullish bias. • COT Data: USD is weak → bullish for gold. • Crypto Correlation: BTC, ETH, and SOL are falling, indicating risk-off sentiment, which favors gold. ? Why I’m Waiting: • OBV is still falling → No buyers stepping in yet. • MACD is still bearish → No momentum shift yet. • Spread hours → Low volume, fakeouts possible. • Low Volatility Sessions (Sydney,Tokio) ? Plan: • Waiting for confirmation: OBV increase, MACD crossover, or a reclaim of VWAP/key level. • Entry: During London/New York session if confirmation appears. • Risk Management: • Risking 1.85% of my account ($10k) with 0.25 lot size. • Stop Loss: Below liquidity grab (to be adjusted). • Take Profit: Minimum 1:2 R:R (adjusting based on price action). ⚠ I will update this trade when confirmation appears! Let’s see how it plays out. (65-70% Probability of Winning this Trade)
The price of ?GOLD appears to be on a downward trend following a period of consolidation. A break below a support level within a sideways trading range is a strong indication of a continued decline. It is likely that the price will drop to the 2870 support level or lower.