Coming into this week, we are observing a clear shift in market bias that occurred at the end of last week, transitioning from bearish to bullish. After running the highs and selling off, we are now looking to run the lows and then buy back into the same highs. This setup could shape up to be a strong week for longs in gold, potentially leading to a clean bull run as Christmas approaches and the market slows down. Based on the content shown on our charts, we can see there was "money out" within our supply zone, which triggered the previous downward shift. Now, we are looking for "money in" within our entry timeframe, which is the 15-minute chart. Watch for a clear entry around the lows. Additionally, there is liquidity above the current highs, which could fuel the next upside move. Trade safely and stick to your plan.
Leading diagonal pattern on the first wave in Intermediate degree indicates the trend is UP! Trend is in Primary degree as wave ((3)).
tl;dr sp500 e-mini futures: Same as for dax. Shallow two-legged pullback to the moving average is a perfect buy signal once we trade above 6087 again. I have targets at 6300 or higher and the chart is as clear as it gets. Only a daily close below 6000 would change the outlook. Quote from last week: comment: Chart is clear, do not look for shorts until we see bigger selling pressure. Current structure has a lot of room to the upside, if you like it or not. My tl;dr covered most of it. comment: Nothing has changed from last week. Market went nowhere and it has formed a perfect very shallow two-legged pullback to the ema. Above 6080 it’s a clear buy signal and I can see this going for 6300 into year end. No bearish thoughts, since bulls are in full control and best bears could do last week was a 70 point pullback. That is as weak as it gets. current market cycle: Bull trend - very late key levels: 6000 - 6300 bull case: Chart is still the same and structure did not change. Once we break above, long it for 6150+. Nothing more to say about this. Invalidation is below 6000. bear case: Dax outlook covers also sp500 and nasdaq. Bears are not doing anything and until they come around big time, only look for longs. Bears need a daily close below 6000 for me to reevaluate. Invalidation is above 6120. outlook last week: short term: I won’t put out a bullish outlook after such a climactic rally without any decent pullbacks. You can only go wrong here. Neutral until bears come around and if the rally continues, it will be without me. If bears come around, first target is obviously 6000 and there I expect another bounce before market decides if it wants to go below 6000 or not. → Last Sunday we traded 6099 and now we are at 6055. Good outlook. short term: Neutral until we break above 6080 and then 6120. Above 6120, market has to find a top and that could be all the way up to 6300. medium-long term - Update from 2024-12-15: Will write a new outlook for 2025 next week. current swing trade: None chart update: Removed the potential bearish two-legged correction. Only bullish targets remain for now.
Gold Technical Analysis The market will remain volatile this week due to the impact of Fed Rate Decision and GDP data. Gold's direction will hinge on these events, particularly the Fed's stance on interest rates. Bearish Scenario: Continuation Conditions: - Price needs to stabilize below 2653 (Pivot Point). - A further breakdown and 1H or 4H candle close below 2638 will open the door to 2623. - Bearish momentum could strengthen further if the Fed rate remains at 4.75% or signals a hawkish stance. Bullish Scenario: Continuation Conditions: - A rate cut of 25 bps by the Fed will support bullish sentiment, driving prices upward. - Price needs to break and hold above 2653, targeting resistance levels at 2665, 2678, and 2690. Key Levels Pivot Point: 2653 Resistance Levels: 2665, 2678, 2690 Support Levels: 2638, 2623, 2612 Trend Outlook - Bearish: If the price stabilizes below 2653 and key support levels break. - Volatile: Driven by the Fed's decision and market reaction to GDP data. Summary - Bearish Trigger: Close below 2638, targeting 2623 and potentially 2612. - Bullish Trigger: Fed cuts rates by 25 bps, and price breaks above 2653, aiming for 2665 and higher levels. previous idea: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/XAUUSD/hWZ74gen-GOLD-Consolidation-and-Breakout-Levels-Movement/
tl;dr dax xetra: Market has printed the most shallow two-legged pullback imaginable and this is as bullish as it gets. Are bulls getting stopped by at least 2 upper trend lines which could continue to be resistance? I highly doubt it. If we get above 20600, there is no reason to not just go to 21000 or higher. I have two potential measured moves above 21000 but until we have a daily close above 20800, there is no reason to look for targets that high. Bears can only begin to dream again with a daily close below 20000. Quote from last week: comment: Late bull breakout during the week like the week before that. Another clear buying signal going into next week. There is not much to add from my tl;dr. Both of my upper bull trend lines run through 20k and I have multiple measured move targets there. More than enough reasons to be bullish and look for longs. Bears can do almost nothing to change my mind, unless we see on giant bear bar closing below 19100 on Monday. comment: Since the market did not go down even the slightest, we can not hold any other thoughts than bullish ones. I won’t do anything other than small scalps on this though. On my chart I have marked the most extreme cases to either direction for the next 3 weeks. I give the bearish one a chance of at max 30% while the bulls are heavily favored to either move higher or at least sideways only. I can’t really imagine reaching 21500+ but that’s the biggest measured move I have calculated. I do think 21k and then sideways is the most reasonable outlook. current market cycle: Bull trend - parabolic rally which is the very end. key levels: 20000 - 21000 bull case: Bulls send a strong message, closing Opex above 20000, so they remain in full control and 21000 has become a possibility for the next 3 weeks. We are still trading near at least 2 upper bull trend lines but since market is not showing big reactions to the downside, we can only expect higher prices. A daily close above 20500 brings 21000 in play. Invalidation is below 19100. bear case: The pullback did not manifest at all and even if bears get this down to 20000 next week, I think we find way more buyers then sellers at that price. Bears really have no arguments at all on their side, besides the upper trend lines which are above us but at this point, I doubt they will be much resistance going into the next 3 weeks. Only thing that would make me more neutral would be a really strong bear bar closing below 20000 tomorrow. If bears somehow manage to do that, we could test down to my C target from last week, which is the breakout price around 19670. For now, I won’t look for shorts unless we see a huge volume increase on strong follow through-selling. Invalidation is above 20500. outlook last week: short term: No more bullish outlooks. I want to see big juicy red bars and people posting on x about “buying opportunity of a lifetime” while they double down all the way back to 19000. Neutral until bears come around. No interest in buying anything above 20100 as of now. 20k might be a decent long scalp for a quick bounce. → Last Sunday we traded 20384 and now we are at 20405. Perfect outlook, given I was neutral until bears would come around. They did not and market went nowhere on the week. short term: Given that we are in the most bullish season of the year and bears could not even get the market to drop into Opex, I can not hold any bearish wishful thought anymore and I will only look for small long scalps over the next 3 weeks. Daily close below 20000 would make me reevaluate. medium-long term - Update from 2024-12-15: Will write a new outlook for 2025 next week. current swing trade : None chart update: Added potential measured move higher.
So after we maked some profit (40%) on the previous analysis : https://www.tradingview.com/chart/ORDIUSDT/URfqI2j6-ORDI-bullish/ it's time for a new breakdown, Especially after the price took a dive this week following the market correction. We now have a strong up-trendline on the daily timeframe alone with the formation of a bullish CUP and Handle pattern. in summary , the price is currently at the bottom. and the upcoming target are as follows : Target 1 : 39.50$ (12%) Target 2 : 43.80$ (25%) Target 3 : 50% (50%) Target 4 : 74.50 (120%) StopLoss ? i haven't set a stop loss, but any daily close bellow the trendline (blue line) will start to worry me.I'll keep you updated . BINANCE:ORDIUSDT CRYPTO:ORDIUSD BINANCE:ORDIUSD
Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr bitcoin: Neutral. Market went nowhere last week. It’s testing and trying above 103k and it could not close a daily bar above it for now. I have a measured move at 110k but that’s about it for me. Obviously bears are not doing anything, so either don’t trade or look for long scalps. Bears need a daily close below 94k to begin having arguments again. Quote from last week: comment: Market did it and pulled back 11%. What do you think happens on the next try when bulls get above 102k/103k again? Upside potential is very limited and once we trade below 90k, I do think the selling will accelerate. Previous ath in BTC were heavily sold and I don’t expect that to change now. We have a clear channel that’s pretty shallow and once other markets show signs of profit taking, I do think this one will too. I would be very surprised if we close 2024 above 100k. comment : I still doubt we can close this above 100k for 2024. Bears are obviously not doing anything for now. Does that mean this is a decent long? Hell no. Last target I have is 110k but I don’t care about this market until we see a daily close below 90k. current market cycle: Bull trend with a blow-off top. We are at the very end of it. It will turn soon. key levels: 90000 - 110000 bull case: I have one measured move that leads to 110k but that’s about it. The 11% pullback was already too strong to expect this to go much further. As long as bulls keep it above the daily ema, they remain in control. Did not change a word since last week because nothing has changed for the market. Invalidation is below 90000. bear case: Bears not doing enough. Won’t waste brain resources making up stuff here. Daily close below 90k, then we can talk. Invalidation is above 110000. outlook last week: short term: Neutral again between 90k and 104k. Clear invalidation levels given, now it’s about patience. I highly doubt bulls can get another leg up. → Last Sunday we traded around 100k and now we are at 103k. Nothing changed since market stayed inside the range. Good outlook. short term: Neutral again between 90k and 104k. Clear invalidation levels given, now it’s about patience. I highly doubt bulls can get another leg up. Same outlook was last week. medium-long term - Update from 2024-12-15: Will write a new outlook for 2025 next week. current swing trade : None chart update: Nothing
? Bitcoin Update ? Current Price: $103,181 ? Technical Analysis: Resistance: $105,310 (Fibo 0.62) If this level is breached, the next targets are $110K - $124K. Support: $100,000 (Key psychological level) Losing this level could trigger a move down to $49,500 (Fibo 0.5) and $43,670 (Fibo 0.618). ? General Outlook: Bitcoin remains in a strong uptrend, but $105K is a critical resistance. Short-term corrections could occur due to profit-taking. If momentum holds, new all-time highs are possible. ? Altseason Insight: Altcoin Season is expected to continue between Dec 10, 2024 - March 10, 2025. ⚠️ Warning: A significant drop could follow after this period! #Bitcoin #Crypto #Altseason #TechnicalAnalysis ?
Leveraging our Adapted RSI w/ Regime Detection we can easily identify this bearish divergence alongside the weekly rsi signal suggesting Sell. Whilst higher timeframe orderflow is still bullish upon retest of $22-$23 - I would keep a close eye on intraday order flow heading into early this week as we have important economic data, notably BOJ policy rates decision later in the week, which implies increased volatility and likely, manipulation.
Hello friends This coin has become very trendy with its strange pumps. Now the price is compressed in a triangle and according to the strength of the trend, purchases can be made step by step. If you like this analysis, give us energy by liking and commenting.