OANDA:CADCHF is approaching a significant support zone, marked by prior price rejections and strong buying pressure. This area has historically acted as a key demand zone, indicating the potential for a pullback if buyers regain control. The current market structure suggests that if the price confirms a rejection from this support zone, there is a high likelihood of an upward move. I anticipate that if rejection occurs, the market may head higher toward the 0.62870 level, which represents a logical target within the current market structure. If you agree with this analysis or have additional insights, feel free to share your thoughts in the comments!
SPY has been in an uptrend since October 2023. Support has always held on a weekly level. Should it fail to close in the channel on the weekly, then we may see a correction 9%-13%. Should it hold, we can target an additional 12%-18% upside. We will see how it unfolds.
According to the wave analysis we expect the price rise again to the blue levels
You can buy within this range or slightly lower with confirmation.
You can buy within this range or slightly lower with confirmation.
A term I have coined, "The Valley of Risk", describes a price chart which has had a prior very strong bullish trend, pulls back to its 50% Retracement Support, and then fails to hold it... entering a long, grinding, bearish deflation which coincides with the heavy negative emotion being felt by those still holding the bag. Inside the "Valley of Risk" nothing one does is correct: If you sell... it will bottom and rally If you buy... it will continue down If you baghold... it will continue to go down until you cannot stand it and #1 This is just a pattern of human emotion being reflected on a price chart... which is what price charts ultimately are. It is best to avoid going into the Valley of Risk and have strict rules against bagholding. Deploy your capital elsewhere that there is a better potential rate of return. When I teach about this concept I always look back to Zillow NASDAQ:Z . This was a stock I bought "on a dip" at 111 and made the right decision to sell my position at a loss at 102 when the stock price violated the 50% Support. This allowed me to avoid the horrible Earnings miss gap and the final -74% depreciation. My position still would not have recovered as of writing. https://www.tradingview.com/x/eOl5wNHR/ As I published months ago, it became clear to me that the over exuberance and fancy financial buzz words being thrown around about NASDAQ:MSTR were signs of a ponzi about to collapse. Well, the "Bitcoin nuclear reactor" has cooled and the leverage baked into Microstrategy would be its downfall. That has now come to pass. There are some other interesting elements of price action which have been textbook in this decline that I want to talk about in this post. The 50% Retracement: https://www.tradingview.com/x/8ZNGgnlv/ The operative level for the last 3 months has been 328. This is the 50% Retracement of the YOLO rally. In the pullback from the ATH 440 became the 50% Retracement Resistance. The Ichimoku Cloud Breakout Confirmed: https://www.tradingview.com/x/XNBhXgDD/ The other textbook setup was when the Ichimoku Cloud Breakout was confirmed by the Lagging Span entering clear bearish space after price had exited the cloud. Interestingly, this happened at the same exact day as Bitcoin; last Friday. You can read more about this strategy and my 14 year study of how effective it is in my recent Ideas: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/36keaMBx-Ichimoku-Bitcoin-Bull-Trend-Ends/ So what now? That is the eternal question of "The Valley of Risk". There is never a good answer because the technical supports have been broken. Personally though I need to answer this question for my bearish positions. The most logical point to look would be the Volume Profile POC at 165. However, Microstrategy is going to move concurrent to Bitcoin itself and knowing the past bearish cycle patterns this week, through brutal, will find a bottom. I do not believe it will be the final bottom only that price may hesitate at some point for perhaps even a month. My trade management This week I will be selling premium against my long Puts, which go out to 2027, to offset my Theta while still remaining short Delta.
As interest rates are set to drop. Safe momentum bullish idea. Sell portion of position as we retest high. we can set ATH again depending on economic conditions.
In my previous big bear break analysis of BTC I gave the area we trade in now as the last wobble before the break. https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/FnJ2lKaj-You-do-not-know-the-future-stop-telling-people-you-do/ First rejection to 90. Wobble 90 - 88. Capitulate under there. We have the drop and the wobble. Now we'll see if the break is legit.
For the short term, I see NIO rising further on wave 3-5. Additionally, I see a bull flag playing out. https://www.tradingview.com/x/JwQzKJ9e/ It could even propel us out of this pattern. https://www.tradingview.com/x/iBORqVki/ But if it breaks out, can NIO also push through this larger resistance line? https://www.tradingview.com/x/qgp3w3Dm/ And this one? https://www.tradingview.com/x/qIsR9Gom/ All I see is confluence. https://www.tradingview.com/x/hWGupEQ8/ Good luck to all.
Market Overview Trend: Strong Bearish ? Resistance: $309.30 → EMA 200 acts as a ceiling Support: $296.00 → Local demand zone Indicators: MACD: Bearish, no reversal confirmation RSI: Oversold (17.96 on 30m) – potential for short-term bounce VWAP: Below average – sellers control momentum ? Risk: High probability of a short squeeze if volume spikes ? Scalping Strategy (5x Leverage) ? Momentum Scalping: Buy: Near $297–$299, targeting $305 Sell: Near $305–$309, targeting $298 Stop-loss: Below $295 ? Breakout Scalping: Above $310: Long to $318 Below $296: Short to $290 ? Mid-Term Trend Forecast (1-3 Weeks) If $310 holds, potential retest of $320 If $296 breaks, freefall to $285 ? News & Market Context ? Tesla planning major initiatives in early 2025, including Model Y Juniper launch & self-driving advancements → Bullish Long-Term ? However, short-term market reaction is bearish due to macro pressures ? Decision: ? Short-term: Scalp long near $297, sell at $305+ ? Mid-term: Avoid heavy long positions until $310 breaks ? Ideal Play: Short bounces, enter longs only above $310 ? Final Verdict: "Survival isn’t about guessing—it’s about acting before the rest wake up." – LucanInvestor