Implied and realized volatility indexes hit the highest levels since August's yen carry trade unwind. Bitcoin (BTC), the world's largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, has always been synonymous with volatility. However, recent market activity indicates a significant surge in price fluctuations, with both implied and realized volatility indexes reaching levels not seen since August of the previous year. This spike in volatility coincides with a renewed frenzy in the Bitcoin options market, suggesting that traders are anticipating significant price swings in the near future. Understanding Volatility In financial markets, volatility refers to the degree of variation in the price of a trading asset over time. High volatility implies that the price of an asset can fluctuate dramatically over a short period, while low volatility suggests relatively stable price movements. Volatility can be measured in two primary ways: 1. Realized Volatility: This is a historical measure of how much an asset's price has fluctuated in the past. It is typically calculated by looking at the standard deviation of price changes over a specific period, such as 30 days. 2. Implied Volatility: This is a forward-looking measure of how much the market expects an asset's price to fluctuate in the future. It is derived from the pricing of options contracts, which give the holder the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell an asset at a specific price on or before a certain date. Current Market Trends The increase in implied volatility suggests that options traders are pricing in a higher probability of significant price swings in Bitcoin. This could be due to a number of factors, including: • Increased Institutional Participation: The growing involvement of institutional investors in the Bitcoin market has led to larger trading volumes and potentially greater price swings. • Regulatory Uncertainty: The lack of clear regulatory frameworks for cryptocurrencies in many jurisdictions continues to create uncertainty and contribute to volatility. • Market Sentiment: Overall market sentiment towards Bitcoin can also play a significant role in its volatility. Positive news and developments can lead to rapid price increases, while negative news can trigger sharp declines. Options Market Frenzy The surge in Bitcoin volatility is closely linked to a renewed frenzy in the Bitcoin options market. Options contracts provide traders with a way to bet on future price movements without having to directly buy or sell the underlying asset. The recent increase in options trading suggests that traders are actively seeking to capitalize on the expected price swings in Bitcoin. One notable trend in the options market is the increasing demand for call options, which give the holder the right to buy Bitcoin at a specific price. This indicates that many traders are betting on further price increases in the cryptocurrency. Potential Risks While the current market conditions may present opportunities for some traders, it is important to be aware of the potential risks associated with high volatility. Rapid price swings can lead to significant losses for those who are not adequately prepared. For latecomers to the Bitcoin market, the risk of immediate unrealized losses is particularly high. If the price of Bitcoin were to suddenly decline, those who recently bought in at higher prices could see their investments quickly lose value. Conclusion Bitcoin's recent surge in volatility, coupled with the frenzy in the options market, highlights the inherent risks and opportunities associated with this digital asset. While the potential for significant gains exists, traders must also be prepared for the possibility of substantial losses. As the Bitcoin market continues to evolve, it is crucial to stay informed and exercise caution when making investment decisions.
Wave 3 hit Fib 2.618. Wave 4 is completing ABC correction, touched Fib 0.618. Assuming wave 4 is bottomed, we are expecting $130 for wave 5. Nevertheless, I am hoping wave 4 continue to go lower than top of wave 1, to form diagonal and expecting much higher target (Fib 4.236 ?)
Just recently opened a SEI short. 85% tp @ 0.3175 close @ $0.0.285 Potential early 70% partial at 0.33 Based on higher timeframes it seems like the market wants a lower price as it keeps getting rejected. Failed to close the week back above the 0.348 level. Attempt to push up today and was met with more selling pressure. Hence am anticipating that the market will make a new low....the targets I have I would say are conservative> I could see it falling to $0.285 but maybe after another correction, I don't expect it to fall in straight line.
FOREXCOM:CHFHUF is currently testing a major support area that has previously served as a strong base for bullish reversals. It could become a great potential buying opportunity if buyers confirm control. I think an upward move toward 437.900 is very plausible. If the support fails to hold, however, further downside might happen. Be sure to wait for clear confirmation of buyer strength before taking long positions.
Persistent Systems Ltd. is a technology services company. It engages in delivering digital business acceleration, enterprise modernization, and next generation product engineering services. The firm operates through the following segments: Banking, Financial Services & Insurance, Healthcare & Life Sciences, and Technology Companies & Emerging Verticals. Persistent Systems Ltd. CMP is 6090.90. The Positive aspects of the company are Company with Low Debt, Company with Zero Promoter Pledge, Stocks Outperforming their Industry Price Change in the Quarter and Company able to generate Net Cash - Improving Net Cash Flow for last 2 years. The Negative aspects of the company are high Valuation (P.E. = 77), Companies with growing costs YoY for long term projects and MFs decreased their shareholding last quarter. Entry can be taken after closing above 6094 Targets in the stock will be 6241, 6392 and 6547. The long-term target in the stock will be 6704 and 6810. Stop loss in the stock should be maintained at Closing below 5850 or 5566 depending on your risk taking ability. Disclaimer: The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock or index. We do not guarantee any success in highly volatile market or otherwise. Stock market investment is subject to market risks which include global and regional risks. I or my clients might have positions in the stocks that we mention in our posts. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message. Do consult your investment advisor before taking any financial decisions. Stop losses should be an important part of any investment in equity.
AUDJPY is currently forming a bearish flag. For this reason, we should see price continue to hike into 99,99. This is the Daily timeframe therefore entering now would be a bit late. I will break down the analysis further until we find an entry.
Today's Market Overview: General Trend: The market seems to be consolidating after breaking key structural levels (BOS and CHoCH). The price is hovering near resistance zones (Premium and EQH) and shows potential for a move toward lower support zones (Discount and Equilibrium). Key Support and Resistance Levels: Support Zones (Fibonacci Levels): The range of $2,690 to $2,684 serves as a critical support area. Resistance Zones: The area around $2,718 to $2,725 acts as a strong resistance zone, likely to impede further upward movement. Scenarios for Tomorrow (January 21, 2025): If the price breaks above the $2,718 level and sustains, it may target the next resistance at $2,725 or higher. If the price drops below $2,698, it could retest the support zone between $2,690 and $2,684. Fibonacci Insights: Key Retracement Levels: Based on the chart, critical Fibonacci retracement levels seem to align near $2,705 (0.382) and $2,690 (0.618), making these levels important for potential reversals. Recommendations for Tomorrow: For Bullish Traders: Wait for the price to stabilize above $2,718 and look for buy (long) opportunities targeting $2,725 or beyond. For Bearish Traders: If the price breaks below $2,698, short positions targeting the $2,684 support zone could be profitable.
Tesla ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) can still double from here: https://www.tradingview.com/x/ZwpmdRC4/ Click chart above to see the detailed analysis?? With Elon Musk actually becoming the richest person on this planet, Tesla is simultaneously attempting another all time high breakout. All the recent bullish momentum could further fuel this rally, leading to new all time highs and another 2x in Tesla's market cap. Levels to watch: $450, $900 Keep your long term vision, Philip (BasicTrading)
Key Level Zone: 18.380 - 18.520 HMT v4.1 detected. The setup looks promising, supported by a previous upward/downward trend with increasing volume and momentum, presenting an excellent reward-to-risk opportunity. HMT (High Momentum Trending): HMT is based on trend, momentum, volume, and market structure across multiple timeframes. It highlights setups with strong potential for upward movement and higher rewards. Whenever I spot a signal for my own trading, I’ll share it. Please note that conducting a comprehensive analysis on a single timeframe chart can be quite challenging and sometimes confusing. I appreciate your understanding of the effort involved. Important Note : Role of Key Levels: - These zones are critical for analyzing price trends. If the key level zone holds, the price may continue trending in the expected direction. However, momentum may increase or decrease based on subsequent patterns. - Breakouts: If the key level zone breaks, it signals a stop-out. For reversal traders, this presents an opportunity to consider switching direction, as the price often retests these zones, which may act as strong support-turned-resistance (or vice versa). My Trading Rules Risk Management - Maximum risk per trade: 2.5%. - Leverage: 5x. Exit Strategy Profit-Taking: - Sell at least 70% on the 3rd wave up (LTF Wave 5). - Typically, sell 50% during a high-volume spike. - Adjust stop-loss to breakeven once the trade achieves a 1.5:1 reward-to-risk ratio. - If the market shows signs of losing momentum or divergence, ill will exit at breakeven. The market is highly dynamic and constantly changing. HMT signals and target profit (TP) levels are based on the current price and movement, but market conditions can shift instantly, so it is crucial to remain adaptable and follow the market's movement. If you find this signal/analysis meaningful, kindly like and share it. Thank you for your support~ Sharing this with love! HMT v2.0: - Major update to the Momentum indicator - Reduced false signals from inaccurate momentum detection - New screener with improved accuracy and fewer signals HMT v3.0: - Added liquidity factor to enhance trend continuation - Improved potential for momentum-based plays - Increased winning probability by reducing entries during peaks HMT v3.1: - Enhanced entry confirmation for improved reward-to-risk ratios HMT v4.0: - Incorporated buying and selling pressure in lower timeframes to enhance the probability of trending moves while optimizing entry timing and scaling HMT v4.1: - Enhanced take-profit (TP) target by incorporating market structure analysis
? Is Trump Coin Poised to Skyrocket Post-Inauguration? ?️? Let’s dive into the possibilities for Trump Coin as a pivotal moment approaches: --- ? Bear Market Status: Trump Coin is currently in a downtrend, but analysts suggest a potential post-inauguration surge could be on the horizon. --- ? Historical Performance: During Trump’s last inauguration, Trump Coin skyrocketed to $72, followed by a sharp decline after he assumed office. Could history repeat itself, or is this time different? --- ? Key Highlights: 1️⃣ Whale Control: 80% of Trump Coin’s supply is controlled by CIC Digital and Fight Fight Fight, two entities linked to the Trump Organization. This concentration grants them significant price influence. 2️⃣ Current Price: Trump Coin is currently trading at $39, per the latest market data. --- ? What to Watch: Pre-Inauguration Activity: Increased trading volumes or institutional moves could indicate an incoming rally. Key Levels: Watch for potential breakouts or support at critical price points. --- ? Key Question: Will Trump Coin rally once again, or is the hype fading? ? Your Thoughts: What’s your take on Trump Coin? Is it a hold, buy, or sell? Share your insights below! ? Reminder: "The market rewards those who act with knowledge, not emotion." Stay informed and stay sharp!