OANDA:XAUUSD Continuing to endure a fierce sell-off fueled by market profit-taking and a stronger US dollar, the US Dollar Index rose to a 10-day high on Friday of 107.66 amid concerns about US trade policy and data that raised fears of a recession. US President Trump confirmed 25% tariffs will be imposed on Mexican and Canadian products next week, March 4. This increases market uncertainty. Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau said Canada does not want to get into a trade war with the United States, but if the United States imposes tariffs on Canadian goods on March 4, Canada "will immediately have an extremely strong response." Bloomberg said currency traders bought the dollar after US President Trump confirmed he would impose 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico next week. On Friday, the Atlanta Federal Reserve's GDPNow model predicted that U.S. GDP growth in the first quarter of 2025 would be -1.5%, compared with a previous forecast of 2.3%. The US Dollar was boosted after the data was released due to concerns about an economic recession. OANDA:XAUUSD fell to lows in early New York trading on Friday as Wall Street's major indexes opened weak as investors remained cautious about the potential for price pressure from President Trump's policies. As US PCE inflation data was in line with expectations, the data suggested the Federal Reserve may be more cautious in cutting interest rates, which helped the dollar remain at a two-week high. The US core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose 0.3% month-on-month and 2.6% year-on-year in January, in line with expectations. The overall PCE price index in the United States increased 0.3% month-on-month and 2.5% year-over-year in January, also in line with expectations. However, “personally” believes that PCE data does not significantly change Fed price expectations, so it essentially has a small impact on gold prices. Spot gold prices fell 2.7% in the past trading week, the largest weekly decline since November last year. Next, the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP), (ADP) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) reports will become important market data. If inflation data rises too high, it could trigger a sharp sell-off in gold, and the opposite effect if slowing inflation data stimulates market bets on the Fed's ability to cut interest rates. Of course, further analysis of the above data will be sent to readers in daily publications. Economic data to watch next week Monday: Euro Flash CPI Estimates, US ISM Manufacturing PMI Wednesday: ADP jobs report; ISM US Services PMI Thursday: European Central Bank Monetary Policy Decision, US Weekly Jobless Claims Friday: US nonfarm payrolls. https://www.tradingview.com/chart/XAUUSD/qV7ZQlQ0-GOLD-MARKET-ANALYSIS-AND-COMMENTARY-March-03-March-07/ Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD In addition, investors will also pay attention to the European Central Bank's (ECB) monetary policy decision, which could have an impact on gold prices next week. The ECB is expected to cut interest rates again next week, which could partially support the USD, thereby negatively impacting gold prices next week. With its current position, gold does not have enough conditions to continue falling in price as long as gold maintains price activity above 2,835 USD and Fibonacci retracement of 0.382%, along with the Relative Strength Index above 50. On the other hand, a confirmation signal for gold price to end the downward correction cycle is price activity returning to the price channel. However, traders also need to be careful as a new bearish cycle will open up once RSI goes below 50, the price chart is sold below 2,814 USD, so protective positions should be placed behind 2,814 USD. In the short term, gold is still in a downward correction cycle and the notable points will be listed as follows. As for "personally", I continue to defend the view that declines are only short-term corrections and not a sustainable trend, declines can also be considered an opportunity to buy. Support: 2,835 – 2,814USD Resistance: 2,868 – 2,900USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2896 - 2894⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2900 →Take Profit 1 2888 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2882 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2819 - 2821⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2815 →Take Profit 1 2827 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2833
Technical Analysis (TA) Overview: ? Price Action: XOM is testing a key reversal zone, showing strong buying pressure after breaking out from a descending trendline. The price is now consolidating near resistance. ? Support & Resistance: Resistance Levels: $112.87 (Major Resistance), $115 (Call Wall) Support Levels: $109 (High Volume Node), $108 (Put Wall) ? Indicators: MACD: Bullish momentum building, but still in a weak positive zone. Stoch RSI: Overbought levels (95+), suggesting a potential short-term pullback before continuation. ? Volume Profile: High liquidity around $111-$112, indicating a potential battle between buyers and sellers. GEX (Options Analysis) - Key Insights: https://www.tradingview.com/x/gAGVyHyk/ ? Gamma Exposure (GEX): Positive GEX at higher levels suggests dealers may hedge by selling, acting as resistance. ? Call Walls (Resistance Levels): $112-$115 (Highest positive GEX zone) → Likely resistance, where price action might slow down. $120 (Extreme Call Wall) → If momentum sustains, this could be a long-term target. ? Put Support Levels: $109-$108 → Strong support, if broken, could trigger a sell-off to $105 (next put support). ? Options Sentiment: IV Rank (IVR): 32.7 → Moderate implied volatility, options not overly expensive. Calls 11.3% → Mild bullish positioning in the options market. Potential Trade Setups: ✅ Bullish Scenario: If XOM holds above $111, a breakout toward $115+ is possible. ❌ Bearish Scenario: Failure to hold $109 could send XOM back to $105-$106. ? Suggestion: Watch for a retest of $109 as support before a breakout move! ? Final Thoughts: Short-term traders: Look for confirmation above $111 for a quick move to $115. Swing traders: Ideal entry on a pullback to $109-$110, targeting $115+. Options traders: A breakout over $112 with rising call positioning could fuel momentum. ? This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research before making trading decisions! ?
As the new trading session begins, EUR/USD continues to follow its previous trend. The pair is moving exactly as anticipated, currently testing the 0.5 - 0.618 Fibonacci retracement levels. The previous bullish channel has been broken, signaling a potential shift in momentum. Selling pressure remains strong, fueled by the weaker ISM Manufacturing PMI, which has increased USD volatility but hasn’t been enough to change overall market sentiment. From my perspective, the bears are still in control, and I’m betting on their dominance to persist. What about you? Do you agree with my outlook?
gold if comes above 85000 again can make strong bullish trend also can make new all time high
EUR/USD is showing a slight decline to fill the GAP before potentially rebounding strongly. Currently, the price is testing the 1.03837 support zone, which aligns with the ascending trendline, forming a key confluence area. If buyers hold this level, EUR/USD could bounce back to test key resistance zones at 1.04366 - 1.04820. However, before an upward move, the price may continue a slight pullback to fully close the GAP, especially as pressure from the EMA 34 & 89 remains present. If the price holds above 1.03837, the bullish momentum is likely to be triggered, targeting 1.04820 in the short term. Trading Strategy Buy around 1.03837, with a stop-loss below 1.03600, targeting 1.04366 - 1.04820. Buy if the price breaks 1.04366, confirming stronger bullish momentum. Short-sell if the price gets rejected at 1.04820, expecting a retracement to support before confirming the next move. The Eurozone CPI report (03/03/2025) could have a strong impact on EUR/USD. If CPI exceeds expectations, EUR may gain support from the anticipation of ECB’s continued tightening policy. Conversely, if the data falls short of expectations, selling pressure may return, limiting EUR/USD’s upside potential.
? Technical Analysis (TA) for AMZN * Current Price Action: AMZN is attempting to recover from a downtrend, showing signs of a reversal after hitting the reversal zone near $204-$206. The price has broken out of a falling wedge, signaling a potential short-term upside. * Key Levels to Watch: * Resistance 1: $212.50 (Volume Profile POC) – A breakout could confirm bullish momentum. * Resistance 2: $220 (2nd Call Wall) – Price may slow down or reject here. * Major Resistance: $225-$230 – A strong resistance area and gamma wall. * Support 1: $210 – If AMZN pulls back, this is the first key level to hold. * Support 2: $205 (Put Support) – A breakdown below this would signal further downside risk. * Critical Breakdown Level: $200 – Losing this level could trigger a larger sell-off. ? Indicators: * MACD: Bullish crossover, indicating early momentum shift. * Stochastic RSI: Overbought near 99, suggesting a possible short-term pullback. ? Options Flow & GEX Analysis https://www.tradingview.com/x/XBFj9Qob/ * GEX (Gamma Exposure) Key Levels: * 88.08% Call Resistance at $220 → Breaking above could fuel upside momentum. * 71.12% 3rd Call Wall at $230 → A strong gamma resistance area. * Highest Positive NetGEX / Call Resistance at $225 → Dealers could hedge against further upside. * Put Wall Support at $205 → A strong support area from options positioning. * 3rd Put Wall at $200 → Breaking this level could accelerate downside volatility. ? IV & Sentiment: * IV Rank (IVR): 41.7 → Moderate implied volatility, options are reasonably priced. * IVx Avg: 41.4 → Steady, indicating a stable options environment. * Options Sentiment: Calls = 3.3% → Very low bullish bias in options flow. ? Trade Scenarios & Strategy ? Bullish Scenario (Breakout Play): * Entry: Above $212.50 with strong volume. * Target: $220, then $225. * Stop Loss: Below $210. ? Bearish Scenario (Rejection & Breakdown): * Entry: Below $210. * Target: $205 or $200. * Stop Loss: Above $212.50. ? Final Thoughts & Suggestion * AMZN is testing a key reversal zone. A breakout above $212.50 could push it toward $220+. * If it fails to hold $210, expect a retest of $205-$200, which is a major support zone. * Volume and options flow will be key – if gamma levels start unwinding, expect volatility to spike! ? Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only. Trade responsibly and manage risk! ?
The Cryptocurrency market is a great market. The Altcoins are great. Sometimes we are down and sad, or even mad, because we miss an opportunity that looks great. Here we have Notcoin (NOTUSDT) still trading at bottom prices. How good can it get? The good news is that the breakout here was really small. We have rising volume. Daily buy volume continues to rise but NOTUSDT is still trading below resistance. The last barrier before a major rise and bullish-run. When the opportunity is lost, we are sure to rush and even buy after prices are up. When prices are good and down, we tend to be disinterested —this time it can be different. The way to profit the most from Crypto is not by buying those that already moved up, the best decision is to buy those trading low/near support, before the breakout. We buy and we hold. A chart like this one looks great if we can have patience and focus on the long-term. Yes, it takes time but the only way to secure a low, bottom, price is by entering when there is no excitement, no hype, and right now this is the best time. This is a friendly reminder. I don't know how much longer an opportunity like this will be available but it won't be for too long. A few months from now, several years from now, we will look back and see how prices were at this point and notice that it only lasted a few months. Think of Bitcoin, how long did it trade at $3,500 in March 2020? For how long did it trade at $17,500 in late 2022? The time to enter the Cryptocurrency market is now. You will be happy with the results. Thank you for reading. Notcoin will soon breakout and start to grow. You can be certain. First Bitcoin and the big projects, and then the rest of the Altcoins. Bitcoin, Solana, Cardano, XRP and many others moved today. The rest of the market is sure to follow. We are bullish in March 2025 and beyond. This is the start of the 2025 bull-market. Namaste.
US10 YR Yield Weekly Chart Analysis: NFA -After sweeping the previous swing high we retraced back to 50% Fib(Equilibrium) -Expecting this Week's candle wick to sweep Sellside Liquidity-1 and bounce -If we bounce from here, iFVG-W (red rectangle) will be our resistance zone -Rejection from that level can send it back to sellside and our next target will be BISI-W(green rectangle) If any of these Support/Resistance levels are invalidated i will update the idea next week. **Major economic events can cause drastic moves and invalidate these levels**
? Technical Analysis (TA) for TSLA * Current Price Action: TSLA is recovering from a downtrend and has entered a reversal zone, breaking out of a descending channel. However, it's facing strong resistance near $298-$300. * Key Levels to Watch: * Resistance 1: $298-$300 (Volume Profile POC) – A critical area where sellers may step in. * Resistance 2: $310 (3rd Call Wall) – Breaking above this could trigger a gamma squeeze. * Major Resistance: $320-$337 – Strong rejection expected if price reaches this level. * Support 1: $290 (Volume Value Area Low - VAL) – A pullback could test this before another move up. * Support 2: $280 (Highest Negative NetGEX / Put Support) – A breakdown below this level could accelerate selling. * Breakdown Level: $273 – Losing this level could send TSLA toward $250. ? Indicators: * MACD: Bullish crossover, suggesting momentum may continue upward. * Stochastic RSI: Overbought near 96, signaling a potential pullback before another move. ? Options Flow & GEX Analysis https://www.tradingview.com/x/1HEhMnhq/ * GEX (Gamma Exposure) Key Levels: * 80.77% Call Resistance at $310 → Breaking above could fuel upside momentum. * 67.72% 2nd Call Wall at $350 → Strong gamma resistance, unlikely to break in the short term. * Highest Negative NetGEX / Put Support at $280 → If TSLA stays above, dealers will hedge bullishly. * 3rd Put Wall at $273 → A breakdown here could lead to increased downside volatility. * 2nd Put Wall at $250 → Below this, expect a sharp sell-off. ? IV & Sentiment: * IV Rank (IVR): 72.8 → High implied volatility, options are expensive. * IVx Avg: 84.3 → Elevated, indicating large expected price swings. * Options Sentiment: Calls = 33.8% → Some bullish bias but not extreme. ? Trade Scenarios & Strategy ? Bullish Scenario (Breakout Play): * Entry: Above $300 with strong volume. * Target: $310, then $320. * Stop Loss: Below $290. ? Bearish Scenario (Rejection & Breakdown): * Entry: Below $290. * Target: $280 or $273. * Stop Loss: Above $300. ? Final Thoughts & Suggestion * TSLA is testing a key reversal zone. A breakout above $300-$310 could push it toward $320+. * If it fails to hold $290, expect a retest of $280-$273, which is a major support zone. * Volume and options flow will be key – if gamma levels start unwinding, expect volatility to spike! ? Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only. Trade responsibly and manage risk! ?
i would like to see the upside of this pair as high probability , if the 4 hour fvg being inversion, it will go at least 193.223 level