ZS1! Futures are now net long n the regression break. Roll on this pair is -0.9% per a month. I am not taking this trade
Remember to not FOMO into CRYPTOCAP:BTC and altcoins on massive green candles! Tomorrow, the Trump tariffs will officially hit, and the market could dump! If this happens, don't panic, but instead capitalise on the opportunity to buy the dip! Remember, profits are made when you BUY LOW AND SELL HIGH!
Thesis - The Road to $9,000: How Gold’s 2024 RSI Breakout Signals a New Supercycle Executive Summary In January 2024, gold's quarterly RSI broke decisively above the 70 level — a rare technical event that historically marks the beginning of powerful, long-duration uptrends. This breakout echoes a similar RSI move in April 2005 that preceded a near eight-year bull market, driving gold from ~$430 to nearly $1,900 — a 340% increase. If history rhymes, this recent momentum surge may be the opening act in a multi-year supercycle with a potential price target north of $9,000 per ounce. This thesis presents a comparative analysis of the 2005–2011 bull phase and the emerging 2024 trend, using momentum indicators (RSI, MACD), long-term volume-weighted price levels (VWAP), structural breakouts, and Fibonacci projections to extrapolate a scenario in which gold embarks on its largest bull run in decades. I. A Signal from the Past: RSI Above 70 In April 2005, gold’s quarterly RSI crossed 70 — a level traditionally interpreted as “overbought,” but in trending markets, often signals the start of something big. Over the next 2,800 days, gold’s price rose relentlessly, guided by momentum, monetary policy shifts, and secular macro themes. Now, in January 2024, that same RSI level has been breached again — not from a spike or panic move, but from a slow, base-building structure spanning over a decade. The setup is eerily familiar: a long consolidation, followed by a clean breakout, and now, an overbought momentum profile with room to expand — not collapse. II. Charting the Similarities: 2005 vs. 2024 Metric 2005 Bull Start 2024 Setup RSI breach of 70 Q2 2005 Q1 2024 Starting price ~$430 ~$2,000 Breakout 20-year base 13-year base Duration of trend ~7.7 years Projected to 2031 MACD cross Preceded RSI Also preceded RSI VWAP position Price > VWAP Price > VWAP The MACD crossover in both instances occurred just before RSI broke out, indicating a build-up of medium-term momentum. This alignment of long- and medium-term signals suggests that the 2024 move is not a short-lived spike, but the beginning of a sustained structural trend. III. Fibonacci Extrapolation: The Case for $9,000 Applying Fibonacci extensions from the 2015 bottom to the 2020–2023 consolidation, the 2.618 extension level aligns around $8,700–$9,000. This is also consistent with the proportional move from 2005–2011 (a ~340% gain from breakout levels). If gold’s breakout in 2024 mirrors the strength of its prior secular trend, a target of $9,000 by 2031–2032 is not just plausible — it may be conservative. IV. The Narrative Behind the Numbers Gold does not rise in a vacuum. Behind the charts lies a macroeconomic context of de-dollarization, fiscal expansion, rising debt-to-GDP ratios, and weakening confidence in fiat currency regimes. The 2005–2011 bull unfolded against the backdrop of global financial instability and loose monetary policy. Today, those drivers are amplified. The demand for gold as a hedge — not just against inflation, but against systemic fragility — has never been stronger. Conclusion: Overbought for a Reason OANDA:XAUUSD The RSI has entered overbought territory again — but this isn’t a red flag. It’s a green light. In strong secular trends, being overbought isn’t a signal to exit — it’s a hallmark of strength. If the structural, momentum, and psychological conditions align as they did in 2005, gold may be embarking on a journey toward $9,000 over the next 7 to 8 years. This thesis aims to chart that road — and illuminate the signals already flashing along the way.
XAU/USD is rising towards the resistance level which is an overlap resistance that lie sup with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could reverse from this level to our take profit. Entry: 3,124.63 Why we like it: There is an overlap resistance level that lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement. Stop loss: 3,146.29 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance level. Take profit: 3,097.69 Why we like it: There is a pullback support level that lines up with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
In line with the daily candle formation, gold market is poised to mitigate 3128 for trend correction, triggering an imbalance sweep that could push prices toward 3090. If this level doesn't hold, the market may shift toward new bullish projections.follow for more insights, comment , and boost idea
Waiting for a little pull back on the 4H then I will be looking for an entry.. D and W say SHORT
Our analysis is based on multi-timeframe top-down analysis & fundamental analysis. Based on our view the price will rise to the monthly level. DISCLAIMER: This analysis can change anytime without notice and is only for assisting traders in making independent investment decisions. Please note that this is a prediction, and I have no reason to act on it, and neither should you. Please support our analysis with a like or comment! Let’s master the market together. Please share your thoughts and encourage us to do more by liking this idea.
? GBP/AUD TRADE PLAN ? Date: April 2, 2025 ? Plan Type Main Swing Plan ? Bias & Trade Type Bullish Reversal Setup – Long-term trend continuation after pullback ? Confidence ⭐⭐⭐⭐ (80%) Reasons: – D1 bullish BOS structure – H4 OB + Liquidity sweep alignment – Rejection wicks and EMA defense – AUD weakness and GBP relative strength – Macro sentiment moderately Risk-On ? Status ✅ Waiting for first tap into zone (Zone not touched – fresh institutional entry opportunity) ? Entry Zones Primary Buy Zone: 2.0490 – 2.0515 (H4 OB + FVG + EQ lows liquidity sweep) Secondary Buy Zone: 2.0445 – 2.0465 (Deeper liquidity + refined OB with inducement) ❗ Stop Loss SL: 2.0390 (Under all key structural lows and invalidation wick) ? Take Profits ? TP1: 2.0625 – Partials & SL to BE ? TP2: 2.0700 – Swing liquidity pocket ? TP3: 2.0785 – D1 premium zone target ? Risk:Reward Minimum R:R = 1:3.4 Optimized for swing precision setups ? MANAGEMENT STRATEGY – Enter only after confirmation in zone – Move SL to BE after TP1 – Scale partials at TP2 – Let final position run with trailing SL toward TP3 – If missed: wait for rejection candle + consider refined re-entry ⚠️ Confirmation Criteria – H1 bullish engulfing or pin bar in zone – MACD or RSI momentum shift on M30+ – Volume spike near OB or FVG – Rejection during London or NY open for best fill ⏳ Trade Validity Valid for 1–3 days (H4 swing bias) ❌ Invalidation if H4 closes below 2.0390 ? Fundamental Alignment ✅ GBP remains resilient on wage/inflation expectations ✅ AUD pressured by weak commodities + dovish RBA ✅ Risk-On tilt mildly favors GBP flows ? Final Summary We are looking to buy GBP/AUD from 2.0490–2.0515 zone, with deeper buffer at 2.0445–2.0465. Structure, liquidity, OB + momentum all align for a clean bullish swing continuation. Only execute after proper zone confirmation. Smart Money model fully supports this setup.
Price is moving within an ascending channel with price now testing support. Look for potential buy setups after a change of sentiment on the smaller time frames if this meets your strategy rules. This is an idea of what may happen. You should always trade with a well tested and profitable trading strategy using good risk management.
04.01.2025 / NASDAQ:ICCT #ICCT Fundamentals. Neutral news background. Technical analysis. Daily chart: Short Squeeze on 2nd day after a strong close in the previous session. Premarket: Gap Up on increased volume. Trading session : There was a pullback, which was stopped at the level of 3.70 after the initial impulse at the beginning of the session. After that, the price began to tighten to the level against the initial movement, making pullbacks, each subsequent one was smaller than the previous one. We are considering a long trade in case the level holds. Trading scenario: pullback along the trend (false tightening) to level 3.70 Entry: 3.86 when trend line is broken upwards, tightening structure is broken Stop: 3.66 we hide it below the level with a small reserve Exit: Close part of the position after the impulse movement on increased volume at 12:00 p.m. We close the rest of the position at a price of 4.49 when exit down the trade range. Risk Rewards: 1/3 P.S. In order to understand the idea of the Stock Of The Day analysis, please read the following information .