Let's do a full top down analysis. There's a lot of chatter about this and that why BTC is rallying and selling, but let's take a step back and look at the full context of the TA. Because here a simple bit of logic - if the TA forecasts were drawing the chart before the news, the news is not as important at the TA. The thing that has already told you what would come is the logical thing to use to attempt to roadmap what might be ahead. And it was a foreseeable technical break. https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/jKMWFDTe-Possible-Stages-of-BTC-top/ That was a basic Elliot forecast off a butterfly high and this is correct within a small margin of error on every swing. Not only is it getting the top and the bottom, it is also getting the correct style the swings are in. We'll look more at that later but first let's just zoom out and take a overall view of where we are. All of the main action in BTC over the last 6 months or so has been inside the zone of the 1.27 - 1.61 of the last major swing. https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/kxDNskwq-BTC-Meets-First-Major-Test-at-1-61-Extension/ When we're in this zone we can typically map out three main moves that are likely to happen. One is a breakout upwards, one is a correction and then an uptrend and one is a market break. A trend failure. Full reversal of the trend. Heading into this area, any of these three things are fair game. It's wise to be prepare for all of these whenever you get to a major 161 level. A trend decision will be made there. As you can see from the 3 paths proposed, the bull breakout obviously failed. The corrective move would be predicted to end around 80K and it pending failure now and the bear move currently looks most fitting. Using simple PA has its limitations but if we were to sell hard from here ... it could hardly be said to be unexpected from the context of the monthly chart. Right? https://www.tradingview.com/x/85htxXO5/ In the original Elliot thesis when we got into the latter end of the break leg there were a couple things we could look for. One would be a spike out to a predictable level (wave 5) and the other would be a correction to a predictable level and in a predictable style (ABC correction). These would have been 77K - 93K. Here's the post about that before the low was made. https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/w2paUTKW-Possible-Quick-Flush-and-Bigger-Bull-Trap-Now/ There should be parabolic action in a two leg correction for the ABC. https://www.tradingview.com/chart/SPX/AH6oy2wX-Basic-bearish-Elliot-wave-structure/ That would look like this. https://www.tradingview.com/x/U2IZRCjD/ From here the market would have to do three things. One, stop rallying. Seemingly inexplicably. It seems to have only one way it can go but it goes the other. Second is we have to make the drop in the Elliot manner with a break, pullback and then a bigger break. We have this. https://www.tradingview.com/x/JpxYt5lw/ Notice how this little rally move is marked into the template for the rally and drop. https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/w2paUTKW-Possible-Quick-Flush-and-Bigger-Bull-Trap-Now/ These conditions would now imply we're inside of a bigger wave 3. And a big wave 3 predicts a capitulation which would be no less than 50% off the high and I currently feel we're probably talking more like it hitting 45K or so before a bounce. Nothing to say that bounce would have to be the low. It's a good time to consider your risk exposure to a break in my opinion.
? Price Action & Trend Analysis Analyzing market trends using price action, key support/resistance levels, and candlestick patterns to identify high-probability trade setups. Always follow the trend and manage risk wisely! Price Action Analysis Interprets Market Movements Using Patterns And Trends On Price Charts. ???Follow us for Live Market Views/Trades/Analysis/News Updates.
A month ago, I called this out and got a lot of flack for it! BTC has dropped below 80k and guess what, it will hit 70k soon. No one will be buying up on a losing asset even if "experts" say it will go to 200k. Maybe yes, maybe no, but one thing is for sure that you will have a massive drawdown and it could take years to recover. The strategic Crypto fund will take years to operationalize, but financial and consulting institutions which have been laying people off for years. Could be bullish, but not today esp. with the liquidity squeeze and high interest rates. Best of luck and always do your own due diligence!
Rising Distillate Production and Inventory Build U.S. distillate fuel inventories ( ECONOMICS:USDFP ) saw a sharp increase of 3.9 million barrels last week, reflecting a significant rise in refinery output. Distillate fuel production reached 5.2 million barrels per day (bpd), marking one of the highest levels in recent months. The increase suggests refiners are responding to strong seasonal demand for diesel and heating oil, particularly in industrial and freight sectors. While distillate stockpiles remain below the five-year average, this recent buildup provides a short-term cushion against supply constraints. The inventory growth contrasts with the broader decline in total petroleum stocks, which fell by 2.2 million barrels, highlighting the selective increase in diesel availability. Demand Trends and Market Implications Despite rising inventories, demand for distillate fuels remains strong, with four-week average consumption reaching 4.3 million bpd, a 14.2% year-over-year increase. The surge is driven by industrial activity, freight transportation, and winter heating demand, which have kept diesel consumption elevated. Retail diesel prices have shown relative stability, reflecting balanced supply and demand dynamics. However, the increase in refining capacity dedicated to distillate production could introduce short-term pricing pressure, particularly if demand softens. Investment and Trading Considerations The expansion in distillate inventories presents several key considerations for market participants: • Refining stocks, such as Valero ( NYSE:VLO ) and Phillips 66 ( NYSE:PSX ), could benefit from increased diesel production, depending on refining margins. • Heating oil futures ( NYMEX:HO1! ) may face near-term volatility as supply balances against continued winter demand. • Freight and industrial sectors remain a strong driver of diesel consumption, making economic indicators in these sectors critical to watch. On this basis: The significant rise in distillate inventories highlights refiners' strategic production shift to meet diesel demand. While short-term price stability remains, continued strong consumption could limit downside risks, keeping distillate markets well-supported.
3/4/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:NXT NXT, Bitcoin, NVDA... that's it down to 3 positions the kings nxt - massively understated growth, mgns, consensus cash and buybacks coming (50% position in deep ITM LEAPS) bitcoin - there is no second best. way higher, even if we do a dip to 60s, 70s ST... who knows. (30% position) nvda - 25x PE for 50% CAGR. cash machine (10% position in deep ITM LEAPS) looking to only own the highest conviction stuff in trumps chaos tape where downside maybe 20-30% max but where even based on where we r today, upside is already 2-3x to 1 plus. 10 cash. probably goes to NXT to bitcoin if/when OBTC gets you 10% off spot ;) be well. omg. but we've seen this before. V
The recent Bitcoin (BTC) price action suggests a bearish sentiment despite the broader long-term uptrend. The market reached an all-time high of $109,000 on January 20, 2025, before reversing, signalling potential downside risks. Formation of a Double-Top Reversal Pattern BTC has formed a double-top pattern, a classic bearish reversal setup. The critical “neckline” support level at $91,900 was breached, confirming the trend reversal. A corrective pullback from this level has intensified selling pressure, increasing the likelihood of further downside movement. Key Support & Resistance Levels Immediate Resistance: $86,227 Major Resistance Levels: $89,075 $91,900 (previous neckline, now acting as resistance) Key Support Levels: $77,900 $74,900 $72,750 (long-term support) Bearish Scenario If BTC fails to sustain a move above $86,227, the price could resume its decline. A rejection at this level would reinforce downside pressure, targeting $77,900 initially, with extended losses toward $74,900 and $72,750 in a deeper correction. Bullish Alternative: Breakout Confirmation A daily close above $86,227 would invalidate the immediate bearish outlook. A sustained breakout could lead to a rally toward $89,075, followed by a potential retest of the $91,900 neckline resistance. A confirmed reclaim of $91,900 could shift momentum back to the bulls, opening the door for renewed upside. Conclusion BTC’s price action remains bearish in the short-to-medium term, with key resistance at $86,227 dictating the next move. A failure to break higher could reinforce the downtrend, while a confirmed breakout above resistance would shift sentiment bullish. Traders should closely watch these critical levels for confirmation of the next directional move.
? Price Action & Trend Analysis Analyzing market trends using price action, key support/resistance levels, and candlestick patterns to identify high-probability trade setups. Always follow the trend and manage risk wisely! Price Action Analysis Interprets Market Movements Using Patterns And Trends On Price Charts. ???Follow us for Live Market Views/Trades/Analysis/News Updates.
Gold continued to rebound yesterday and gradually strengthened in the European and American markets. It once stood at 2890. So whether we are looking at the return of the bullish trend or the early short correction. This depends on the definition of the trend. If you see a return to the bullish trend, then today we must see a continued rise. If you see a correction of the bearish trend, the daily single positive rebound today is a decline. From the perspective of the return market, the rebound in the early morning of Friday continued on Monday, and the daily line turned positive at the high closing, which means that the market is not very weak. The continuation of the rebound indicates that the support below is strong. Although this wave of retracement and decline is 124 US dollars, it seems to be a large decline, but compared with the previous continuous rise, it can only be regarded as a retracement correction of the bulls, which does not change the overall trend. If it can rise again today and return to the channel, then we can see the return of the bullish trend, or there will be a second high of 2956. As for whether it can set a new high, we will talk about it at that time. Gold continued to rebound yesterday and gradually strengthened in the European and American markets. It once stood at 2890. So whether we are looking at the return of the bullish trend or the early short correction. This depends on the definition of the trend. If you see a return to the bullish trend, then today we must see a continued rise. If you see a correction of the bearish trend, the daily single positive rebound today is a decline. From the perspective of the return market, the rebound in the early morning of Friday continued on Monday, and the daily line turned positive at the high closing, which means that the market is not very weak. The continuation of the rebound indicates that the support below is strong. Although this wave of retracement and decline is 124 US dollars, it seems to be a large decline, but compared with the previous continuous rise, it can only be regarded as a retracement correction of the bulls, which does not change the overall trend. If it can rise again today and return to the channel, then we can see the return of the bullish trend, or there will be a second high of 2956. As for whether it can set a new high, we will talk about it at that time.
Pat on the back... Gave an early warning on NVDA on end Jan 2026.... Down, down all due to Trump... Maybe he is a market crasher in the 2nd term lol...
LTC WON’T SURGE YET: SHORT-TERM PRICE PATH AHEAD LTC isn’t ready for a big breakout. In the near term, expect it to dip to 89$, then rebound past 110$ before sliding back to 60$. This choppy ride reflects its weekly chart consolidation—stay sharp for the 89$ entry