The trade setup has been marked on the chart. At the entry level we need to see some bearish momentum or candlestick pattern. DYOR
DXY March 20 Analysis Price parent bias is bear Price is Discount M/W/D Previous session DISCOUNT and DISCOUNT on the daily range new 8:30 March 19 delivery Price was in a discount after consolidation rallied in London to session 50 as I suspected and rallied to the daily range 50. Retraced with a small consolidation coming into NY. 7 macro judus swing small consolidation to reverse and rally to buy stops target and FVG. FOMC price retraced a discount on the .79 DR and consolidated. Stop hunt raid? Note how prices swing was from .79 to .79 on the daily range. March 20 delivery Its likely after the raid on buy stops and that Price is now rebalancing a HTF FVG that we could see price continue to seek lower prices. It could show signs of wanting to come to the 50 previous session range so be open to what the chart prints. My Model Factors Price will have to do the following for me to trade *session liquidity taken *macro time only *first presented FVG *4 candle pattern *hour analysis down to 1 min every 15 minutes *every hour mark out what price has done Stay open to build narrative once Asia opens. Stay open to reading price delivery
ROME, ITALY, 19th March 2025, FinanceWire
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BASED IN TECHNICAL ANALYS THIS IS MY IDEA FOR NEXT 6 MONTHS !! The next six months could see BTC climbing toward new all-time highs, potentially testing levels between $120,000 and $200,000. This aligns with optimistic forecasts from industry experts, such as Standard Chartered’s $200,000 target by year-end 2025, driven by sustained institutional inflows and adoption (e.g., via ETFs However, short-term corrections are likely. Bitcoin’s current consolidation around 65.000 70.000
- positive Inflation outlook > more rate cuts expected > bearish for the US market Deeper retracement expected
? ? ? Market-Moving News ?: ??? People's Bank of China (PBOC) Interest Rate Decision ?: On March 20, the PBOC will announce its latest interest rate decision. While specific expectations are not detailed, any adjustments could influence global markets, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region. ??? Bank of England Interest Rate Decision ?: The Bank of England is scheduled to announce its interest rate decision on March 20. Analysts anticipate that the central bank will maintain the current rate at 4.5%, following a recent reduction. This decision will be closely watched for its implications on the UK economy and global financial markets. ? Key Data Releases ?: ? Thursday, March 20: ? Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 AM ET) ?:This weekly report indicates the number of individuals filing for unemployment benefits for the first time, providing insight into the labor market's health. Forecast: 225,000 Previous: 220,000 ? Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (8:30 AM ET) ?:This index measures manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia Federal Reserve district, with positive numbers indicating expansion. Forecast: 10.0 Previous: 18.1 ? Existing Home Sales (10:00 AM ET) ?:This data reflects the annualized number of previously constructed homes sold during the prior month, offering insights into the housing market's strength. Forecast: 3.95 million annualized units Previous: 4.08 million annualized units ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult with a professional financial advisor before making investment decisions.⚠️ ? #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
Well, apparently you can't just rely on daily indicators and an open gap. All I did was lose money on premium burn with the calls I bought last week, but I added next week's XLF calls when the market opened and XLF went red for some stupid reason. Wound up dumping everything near the daily peak when I regained lost profits, so at least I'm even now, lol. What I realized is that you gotta pay attention to the 3 hr indicators even at the bottom. You can see how it sold off Monday afternoon/night because RSI and MFI hit overbought, and we got the Powell pump because MFI hit oversold premarket today, I don't have time to pay attention to the market all day because I have a job now, lol, so you guys will have to track MFI and RSI on your own. 3 hr chart, standard settings for RSI and MFI and make sure your time zone aligns with US east coast (NY), or else the 3 hr charts will look different. There's also a small gap up aftermarket today that also needs to be filled. Probably more whipsaw, lol. At this point, I'm only trading if I see indicators go oversold or overbought. WIll post plots pre-market if I have time. Good luck.
RISK-ON ? I’m seeing so many people incorrectly analyzing the September 2019 emergency repo OMOs, which were short-term liquidity injections from the Fed, and then comparing it to the price of BTC going down, before QE officially started in March 2020 because of the pandemic. Here’s what really happened. September 15, 2019 was a tax deadline, pulling ~$100B out of markets as large corporations paid the IRS and funds flew into the TGA. Meanwhile, the Treasury issued new T-Bills to rebuild cash reserves following the post-debt ceiling resolution in August, draining another $50-100B as big banks and institutions absorbed the securities. During this time, the Fed continued reducing its balance sheet (QT) down to $3.76T, but the balance sheet did not leave enough slack for unexpected cash drains to the system, such as corporate taxes and Treasury issuance. Unfortunately, the Fed was flying blind and did not have a hard number estimate for “ample reserves” in the banking system. These reserves were largely hoarded by a few of the larger banking institutions due to Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR) rules and a higher IOER at 2.1% vs the ON RRP rate of 1.7% - a 40 bp spread. This caused a liquidity crisis in the US repo market because bank reserves held at the Fed ($1.36T) were too low and repo lending dried up. Banks weren’t able to access each other’s reserves to fund daily operations. SOUND FAMILIAR !? The US just resolved its CR to avoid a government shutdown, and they will be refilling the TGA by issuing new T-Bills. The reverse repo facility is also nearly drained. Today, we heard the Fed will be reducing its securities runoff from $25B - SEED_TVCODER77_ETHBTCDATA:5B on April 1st, an 80% adjustment. One of the main drivers is they wanted to get ahead of another 2019-style repo crisis (although they won’t say this), rather than being reactive and having to perform emergency OMOs once again. Now to go back to my original point with people saying the Fed reducing its balance sheet runoff is a big nothingburger based on BTC price action in 2019. BTC dumped because of the repo crisis, NOT because markets needed QE. By early 2020, the liquidity crisis was resolved, and BTC pumped ~45% before the pandemic hit in March and nuked the chart. Proof is in the pudding - just look at the 2017 bull market. QT started in October 2017, and the market ripped until early 2018. The Fed reducing its balance sheet runoff by 80% is definitely a signal of risk-on for educated market participants, as it leaves more reserves in the financial system, which gives banks more liquidity to loan the market. i.e. M2 go up. But keep listening to your favorite large accounts who are all of a sudden macro gurus, what do I know ?
Great day for crypto and XRP today! Not only because of the long awaited update on SEC case that came from Brad G, but also the pump created post FOMC today. If you have been following my analysis, you are aware that price has been traveling as predicted. HOWEVER, it is still early to claim anything . News pump definitely shakes up the market, but only after things are calmed down that we can see where we are. I am still looking for a strong break of the $2.6 level(purple horizontal line) to confirm my bullish bias. To keep things bullish, I have below 2 scenarios that I can see happening. Scenario 1: https://www.tradingview.com/x/2YE1kP8N/ That's the scenario I showed you before. In this scenario, Wave 1 peaks below the confirmation level, charges up on wave 2 and blasts through on wave 3. Price was moving slow and steady, but it was still following this path that I had shared with you all. Scenario 2: https://www.tradingview.com/x/x1bKFIOE/ With the news that came out today, it becomes a little more risky to predict price movement. Even though XRP pumped above the previous Wave 1 price, it still hasn't broke the $2.6 key level and is now showing signs of resistance around the level. With that in mind, it is possible that the peak you saw today is our new Wave 1, and price could retrace back (possibly even less than what is shown in the chart if buyers can defend that $2.3 support) before we go for the confirmation breakout. On both scenarios, I expect price to move slow just like in the beginning of last pump, when price movement caught many by surprise and the FOMO meter went off the charts. I am also basing these scenarios on the idea that this pump might be near its end Although I am just bringing up my bullish bias, there is still possibility of price going back towards $2 or lower to finish this consolidation phase. But I do believe that the crypto market has found its bottom, or at least we are pretty close. What we must do now is take a nap and wake up when trading view send us the alert that will make husbands leave their wives and the unemployment rate to soar(iykyk). For right now, let's remind ourselves that we are just observers of the market and that no one knows what the gods of the chart have planned for the future.