Lets see if this pattern plays out to the maths - the drop should equal the rise - This is a different type of chart than i normally draw and shows lower prices but i'm interested to experiment with a classic pattern
Similar distribution pattern to 2022 Feb drop, price continues to make Higher Highs and indicators make Lower Highs while trading in overbought zones Dont think its the best time to invest but to rather Trade instead with how high price is. I'm looking at about 40% in price fall by February like the last time but for now long positions may be better at $43, and then price topping out at $50. To prolong this pattern but not necessarily invalidate it I need to see a breakout above $50 and some type of quick retest with price action overshooting to the high end of the Major Resistance Zone $55, then we can end up seeing more than a 40% drop.
Bitcoin is likely going to touch $70-75K soon, then a bullish move and a double top is possible with the price reaching a new high ($120,000) There is an order flow imbalance at 30K. If Bitcoin loses 70K, the price can reach the major support below that which is $50K. Then a pullback to the lost 70K support is possible and after a failure $30K is waiting for bitcoin. CRYPTOCAP:BTC IS NOT bearish on the long term at least not yet but you have to get your bags ready for a new ATH afterwards. 150-200K can be the next HH.
Gold technical analysis: Gold rebounded today and continued to short. Gold was shorted at 2627 in the early trading. The article also directly publicly suggested that it was shorted at 2627. Gold fell and harvested. Gold had a good start this week. Gold shorted at 2627, 2620 and 2613 during the day and won three consecutive victories. Gold shorts were even better. The rebound continued to short. The US market fell to the 2600 mark as expected, and the bearish idea was perfect. Judging from the current trend, the highs are constantly lowering, and the bears still control the main theme. The 2600 mark is a bit in danger. selling strategy Sell at 2608-2610, SL 2616, TP 2600-2590, break the position and look at the 2585 line; buying strategy Buy S 2577 at 2583-2585, TP 2595-2605, break the position and look at the 2610 line;
Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr dax futures - Neutral between 20000 - 20100, Bearish below 20000. Bears tried to break down the bear flag and make new lows but failed above 19900 and bulls retraced 50% of it. Good for bears is that they kept the 1h 20ema resistance and xetra closed the year below 20000, which is a sell signal going into January. Bulls did a good job at retracing more than 50% of the sell-off the keeping it above 20000. Market formed a triangle so buy low and sell high inside it. Below 19900 we could see an acceleration downwards and I see the chance of that happening much greater than going above 20160 again. comment: Xetra closed below 20000 and that was very important for the bears. The December bar is now a nasty reversal bar and once we make new lows below 19800, bulls can’t hold long since we could easily pull back down to 19100 - 19400. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 19800 - 20200 bull case: Bulls do not have much going for them currently, other than keeping the market close to 20000 and that means above the breakout price for the recent bull leg. They have to keep this above 19800 or this bull leg was indeed the exhaustive end of this bull trend and market will test lower. Bulls would need a daily bull bar closing above 20000 to begin with. Invalidation is below 19800. bear case: Bears are in control but not as strong as I hoped they would be. Daily bear bars all have tails below but at least bears have now printed 5 consecutive bear bars. This looks clearly like a bear flag about to break down after the strong selling from 20500 down to 19800. Confirmation would be a daily close below 19800 and bears next target then is 19500 and testing the bull trend line. Bulls would have to break above two bear trend lines to start making the market neutral again. Invalidation is above 20160. short term: Neutral around 20000. Bearish below 19990 and uber bearish below 19900 for 19800 or lower. medium-long term from 2024-12-22: Any short near 20000 is reasonable if you can hold for another 1000 points higher. 17000 is much more likely than 21000 though. My first target for the next months is 19000, followed by 17700ish and ultimately down to 16000-16300 in 2025. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Selling the pull-back at 20100 down to 19900 was good. Buying 19900 second best trade today.
tl;dr sp500 e-mini futures - Bearish. Good selling today and bulls could not close above the breakout price around 5990. The close was near the open of the week and since we had a big gap down, this is bearish confirmation. Below 5900 this could very well close the year below 5860, which would be a nasty bearish reversal bar on the monthly chart and a clear sell signal going into January. Bulls need to break above the trend line and 6000 again and a close above it would be neutral. comment: I am heavily favoring a yearly close below 5900 as of now. The selling is strong enough and bears made lower highs again. Anything below 5860 would surprise me though. We are in a clear bear channel and bulls need something above 5965 and bears a break below 5900. The open of December was near 6100 and the lower bears can close this monthly bear bar, the better. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 5800 - 6050 bull case: Bulls retraced 78.6% of the sell-off which was the fib retracement to the tick. Did it help? No. Very strong selling into the close again and after hours. Bulls need to fight for 6000. The only thing they have going for them is that we made a higher low. Any yearly close above 6000 would be good for them. Invalidation is below 5860. bear case: Bears are trading below the 1h 20ema, daily 20ema and have 2 bear trend lines going for them. They need strong follow through tomorrow and close this below 5865, which was the previous December low. We have nested bear channels on the 1h chart but also a triangle with last weeks low. Objectives for the bears tomorrow are to keep the 1h 20ema resistance and break below 5900 to test 5865. Invalidation is above 6038. short term: Neutral 5950 - 6000. Bearish below 5950 for 5900 and then 5865. Uber bearish below 5865. medium-long term - Update from 2024-12-22: Ultimately 5200-5300 in 2025. Again, rough guess as of now and since we have not seen a strong first bear leg, these targets are the lowest I am willing to give an honest outlook about. If bears surprise and we see a huge leg down to 5500, we will go much lower for the second and third leg. current swing trade: Nope trade of the day: Selling since Globex open. The reversal from the 5918 low was very strong and trapped many late bears. Second best trade was to take it and hold until market stalled for multiple hours near 5990.
GBPJPY remains in a bullish net with a potential upswing, but be mindful of bank of japan currency manipulation which is evident and a character of its monetary policy team. On monthly chart 2007/2008 was significant for yen as they crashed British pounds from 260.465 to as low as 119.958 by April 2009. the pair remains bullish on monthly chart .
This is the account that occurs to me so far as valid. An initial 1-2 and a particularly long correction WXY, which would be ending in the last 5. Alternatively: (in gray) the second hump can also be counted as 1-2 (I have a hard time finding evidence for one or the other). It would also be finishing with the last 5 and it would be the beginning of 3 of 3. /* =========================================================== */ Esta es la cuenta que se me ocurre hasta ahora como valida. Un 1-2 inicial y una correccion particularmente larga WXY, que estaria terminando en el ultimo 5. Alternativamente: (en gris) la segunda joroba peude contarse tambien como 1-2 (me cuesta encontrar evidencias de una u otra cosa). Tambien estaria terminando con el ultimo 5 y seria el inicio de 3 de 3.
xauusd sell big fall soon if you want daliy trade then fallow my chart my target is 2590 fallow my trade Markets are struggling to find a reason to move too much in either direction ahead of the New Year’s market closures, which will see most global exchanges shuttered during the middle of the trading week xauusd sell now 2610;2616/sl 2620 tp 2600 more tp 2590 and target 2580
Hands down best megacap to hold right now. ADX, CCI, RSI, P/B, P/FCF, its all there, while market is fomoing TSLA, let this one rip up, and then once tesla double bottoms you swap your amzn profits for TSLA pump in 2026.