Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Let’s take this from the weekly chart. Market has not dipped below the 2024-09 low but that was way too much to expect for bears. 14% down in 4 weeks straight selling is beyond unsustainable but it’s also very very unlikely that this was it and we just go up again. My thesis is a new bear trend until proven otherwise. How would bulls do that? Anything above 21100 would be too high for a retracement in a strong bear trend and it would likely fit a trading range narrative. Trading range would mean 2024-04 low at 17900 to 2024-12 ath at 22450. Bear trend is drawn on the chart and would lead to at least the 50% retracement of this bull trend since 2022, down to around 17500. When will we know? If market retraces below or to the 50% around 20400 and strongly reverses down again, I see my theory confirmed so far. For next week I can’t see anything but a big short squeeze to trap late bears. 19140 was such a weird place to reverse and I can only see this already being strong bulls buying the dip and trapping everyone who thought we were going for 19000. current market cycle: strong bear trend but pullback expected key levels: 19140 - 20500 bull case: Bulls have only going for them that this selling is beyond overdone and climactic and Friday' was a very strong bullish day on huge volume. My bear target was 19600 and we almost printed 19000. 20000 is the first obvious target for a pullback but I think a 50% retracement to 20700 is doable, since the daily 20ema is also at 20400. I expect the market to fight the real battle for either the new bear trend or a multi-year trading range around 20000. Invalidation is below 19100. bear case: Bears showed more strength and got below my measured move target of 19600 but failed above the 2024-09 low at 18867. Last time bears made this much money was 2024-07 where we corrected for 16.91% to then rally 25.59% higher over the next 19 weeks. Hand on heart I do think it’s much more likely we will see that pattern from 2024 repeated than a new bear trend. A trading range 19000 - 22450 is much more likely than going down to 16000. As of now. Can this change if the US really goes into a bigger recession? Of course but for now this is front-running the possible risk because we got up so much the past years that funds really need to secure some profits this time. For next week I have absolutely nothing for the bears. This selling is overdone and market is so much more likely to squeeze late bears, that I won’t look for any short trades until we see 20000 or higher. Invalidation is above 21100. short term: Heavy bullish bias for 20000 and likely 20400. Above 20500 air would get real thin again, if this was the start of a bear market. For now I think the pattern from 2024-07 is more likely to repeat than the bear trend as drawn on the chart. medium-long term - Update from 2024-03-16: My most bearish target for 2025 was 17500ish, given in my year-end special. We don’t know if we have printed the W1 of the new bear trend or repeat the pattern from 2024, where we sold of very strong to reverse even more strongly and make new all time highs. Market needs a bounce and around 20000/20500 we will see the real battle for the next weeks. current swing trade: None chart update: Updated the possible bear trend and added a bullish alternative to show what we did in 2024. For now the bullish path is more likely.
Based On My Trading Algorithms RUNEUSDT Is About To DROP -85%!!!
Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Weekly chart. First green week after 7 consecutive bear weeks. Astonishing eh. Weak bull bar anyhow and sideways is more likely than anything above 70, for now at least. We have now seen higher highs but the 2024-04 highs were not broken and market failed below 80. So the multi-year contraction is still valid. Same for the downside. Lows were not broken for now and bears would need to get below the 2024-09 low to make new ones. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 65 - 70 bull case: Bulls have nothing. Still. They need a daily close above 70 to start having arguments again. For now they just stopped new lows after 7 weeks and any bounce is likely to get sold again. Daily 20ema at 68.4 is their next target and above that they could try for 70. Since we made higher lows and lower highs last week, we are obviously in a triangle, which could break on Monday. Invalidation is below 64. bear case: Bears needed to take profits and reduce risk at these lows that were previous support. For now I see the chance of another leg down as very low so I don’t have many arguments for the bears. If we close strongly below 65, it opens up 64, then 62 but we have so many previous lows (support) down here, it’s just not a good short trade. Invalidation is above 71. short term: Neutral again. No shorts for me down here. Want to see either 70 or 63 next week. medium-long term - Update from 2025-02-23: Bear trend is getting weaker but I still see this going sideways around 70 instead of a range expansion. current swing trade: None chart update: Minor adjustments to the trend lines.
Short after Resistance Test ($3,005 - $3,010) ? Entry: Sell within the $3,005 - $3,010 range if there is a clear rejection and price weakness. ? Take-Profit 1: $2,985 (immediate support) ? Take-Profit 2: $2,970 (recent lows) ? Stop-Loss: $3,015 (above resistance) ? Probability: High – Confirmed by weak volume on rallies and strong resistance. Trade Rationale: Key Resistance Zone ($3,005 - $3,010): This level has historically acted as a supply zone, where sellers step in to push prices lower. If price action shows rejection (e.g., wicks or bearish engulfing candles), it confirms a high-probability short setup. Weak Volume on Rallies: Volume analysis suggests that bullish momentum lacks strong participation. A rising price with decreasing volume often signals an exhaustion of buyers, increasing the probability of a reversal. Technical Indicators Align: RSI (Relative Strength Index): Overbought or showing bearish divergence, signaling potential downside pressure. MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Losing bullish momentum or forming a bearish crossover, indicating potential for a pullback. Donchian Trend & Moving Averages : Price is testing upper Donchian bands and key moving averages are suggesting overextension. Risk-Reward Ratio: > The stop-loss at $3,015 ensures protection against false breakouts. > The first take-profit ($2,985) targets the nearest support, locking in quick profits. > The second take-profit ($2,970) aligns with recent swing lows, maximizing the downside potential. Final RRR (TP2) is 1 : 3,4 Conclusion: A rejection from the $3,005 - $3,010 resistance zone presents a solid short opportunity, backed by weak bullish momentum, technical confluence, and favorable risk-reward. If the price fails to break higher and shows signs of rejection, this trade setup has a strong probability of success. ⚠️ Final Warning: Trading involves significant risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Always use proper risk management and never trade with money you can't afford to lose. This analysis is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. What do you think about this setup? Would you take this trade? Drop your thoughts in the comments! ?
Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Trading range week is behind us. Targets below are the same. 75k and maybe 70k. Bulls need to claim 95k again. I don’t have much to write about this right now. It’s a clear bear trend but it’s trying to bottom out above 75k. Next dip below 80k is the most important one. If bears fail again, we could try to 100k again. current market cycle: bear trend key levels: 70k - 94k bull case: Bulls need anything above 91k to break above the bear trend line but giving this some room, even 94k could still not be enough for them to stop this bear trend. They are doing good at keeping the market above 80k and if they prevent the bears from testing the previous ath at 73.8k, that would be the third try and likely the last before many bears give up and bulls could test higher again. Invalidation is below 70k. bear case: Bears need to close the bull gap down to 73800, no ifs or buts. Invalidation is above 94k. short term: Neutral. Need strong selling momentum again for me to join this. medium-long term - Update from 2025-02-23: 75000 is still my biggest target for 2025. It’s happening. 70k/75k and then I expect a bigger bounce first. Then we will see if we can go lower or not. For now it’s very low probability that the big bull trend line from 2023-10 breaks anytime soon. current swing trade: None chart update: Nothing
Key Support & Trendline Confluence: The price recently bounced off the long-term ascending trendline, which has been a strong support level since late 2023. The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level ($40,205) provided additional confluence for a potential reversal. Resistance Levels & Breakout Potential: Immediate Resistance: $42,000 – A break above this level could confirm a bullish continuation. Major Target: $45,065 – If momentum sustains, this all-time high could be tested soon. Bullish Scenario: A successful breakout above $42,000 could lead to an accelerated move toward $45,065 and beyond. The trendline’s support indicates that bulls remain in control, and the recent rebound suggests renewed buying interest. Risk Management & Confirmation: Bullish confirmation: Sustained price action above $41,500 with strong volume. Invalidation level: A breakdown below $40,000 could indicate a potential trend reversal. Conclusion & Strategy: Short-Term: Monitor price action around $42,000 for breakout confirmation. Mid-Term: Expect a bullish move toward $45,000+ if the trendline holds. Long-Term: If price breaks all-time highs, further upside potential is possible. ? Bullish Confirmation Above $42,000 | ⚠️ Caution Below $40,000
Based On My Trading Algorithms ARBUSDT Is About To Move Down 7%!!!
A few months ago, the total crypto market cap surged past its previous highs, reaching a new all-time high of $3.7 trillion. The current pullback appears to be a bullish retest of the breakout level, potentially setting the stage for the next upward leg.
Midterm forecast: While the price is above the support 64.000, resumption of uptrend is expected. We make sure when the resistance at 79.361 breaks. If the support at 64.000 is broken, the short-term forecast -resumption of uptrend- will be invalid. TVC:USOIL BLACKBULL:WTI Technical analysis: A peak is formed in daily chart at 79.355 on 01/15/2025, so more losses to support(s) 64.900 and minimum to Major Support (64.000) is expected. Take Profits: 68.354 70.182 72.434 74.449 77.410 79.361 83.961 87.000 93.882 100.802 109.192 126.350 __________________________________________________________________ ❤️ If you find this helpful and want more FREE forecasts in TradingView, . . . . . . . . Hit the 'BOOST' button ? . . . . . . . . . . . Drop some feedback in the comments below! (e.g., What did you find most useful? How can we improve?) ? Your support is appreciated! Now, it's your turn! Be sure to leave a comment; let us know how you see this opportunity and forecast. Have a successful week, ForecastCity Support Team
Upgrades upgrades upgrades. Welcome to fake forex forecast analysis. I see a huge LQ pool for a DOL to spool her price higher. With Potus and his tariffs, who knows what may happen.