The week has started by price pushing lower to complete wave 5 with an ending diagonal. Currently price have made first impulsive wave to the upside. If this count is correct I anticipate a correction for wave 2 before pushing higher. Remember this is counter trend. #Elliotwavesglobal
There has been sort of a mixed mood on financial markets during the previous week. The week started with a positive sentiment, although it was around the level of 5.931 at one short point. The S&P 500 was moving toward the higher grounds for the rest of the week, reaching the highest weekly level on Thursday, at 6.083. Still, after the NFP data were posted, the market turned to the negative sentiment, dropping strongly within the day, finishing the week at the level 6.025. What was the actual problem with the NFP data? The US economy added 143K new jobs, while the market was expecting to see the figure around 170K. This difference is not so huge, so there was no problem. However, the average hourly earnings were the one to spoil the game on the market, considering that they increased by 0,5% above the market estimate of 0,3%. This was the breaking point for investors, where they anticipate that increased earnings will support increased spending in the future period and consequently higher inflation. A higher inflation means that the Fed will hold interest rates at current levels for a longer period of time, which means that investors need to revalue their positions. And, another drop in the US equity markets just happened. Despite job developments, which are temporary, the investors continue to be concerned about trade tariffs imposed, or planned to be imposed, by the new US Administration. This brings higher sensitivity to equity markets, which will react to any news to this topic in the future period. So, it might be expected that the volatility will continue. As for quarterly results of the major companies, Amazon shares dropped around 4% after the results. The company had relatively solid quarterly earrings, however, the push in the price was provoked by providing a relatively low guidance to investors regarding companies expectation for Q1 earnings. They provided only an expectation of 5% to 9% growth in revenues in the first quarter, but analysts are noting that this would be the lowest quarterly growth of the company in its history.
USD goes up. Oil goes down. Oil is heavily longed, I expect a major flush down.
It will take a lot to beat that gap down, but trading is nothing without risk.
As I said tow days ago . As long As 2851 hold gold still up . But my strategy not to buy on highs better to look for correction go short then buy dips for today I will go short now @ 2898 and will add more @ 2906 SL @ 2930 with big Prize at 2805 Reasons to short : Touch up trend RSI is divergence + close to 200 FIBO Good luck WEGO
Considering the current situation of the chart and the divergence that has formed in indicators, it is logical to assume that USDT dominance has the potential to drop towards 4.26% zone meaning that there is going to be some upward move in the market. So it is rational to look for buy/long opportunities in 4H charts.
The major data posted during the previous week for the US market was related to jobs data, released on Friday. The non-farm payrolls in January reached the level of 143K, while the market consensus was standing at 170K. At the same time, the unemployment rate dropped by 0,1 percentage point to the level of 4%, from previous 4,1%. Average hourly earnings were higher by 0,5% for the month, bringing it to the level of 4,1% on a yearly basis. As for other macro data posted for the US during the previous week, the ISM Manufacturing PMI for January was standing at 50,9, a bit higher from market estimate of 49,8. The jobs openings for December show a bit weaker data at 7,6M, in relation to the market expectation of 8M new jobs. The S&P Services PMI for January reached the level of 52,8, which was lower from the market expectation of 54,3. Friday also brought data for Michigan Consumer Sentiment preliminary for February at the level of 67,8, which was lower from estimated 71,1. The Michigan 5 years inflation expectations were also increased by 0,1 percentage point to 3,3%, from previous 3,2%. Initial inflation estimate for inflation in January in the Euro Zone was 2,5% a bit higher from the market consensus of 2,4%. The core inflation is still elevated at the level of 2,7% y/y, again higher from forecasted 2,6%. The HCOB Composite PMI final for January in Germany was standing at 52,5 while the same indicator for the Euro Zone was at the level of 50,2. Both indicators were in line with market estimates. The retail sales in the Euro Zone in December was higher by 1,9% on a yearly basis, despite its drop of -0,2% for the month. The trade balance in Germany ended the year at the positive territory of 20,7B euro, much higher from estimated 17M euro. During the previous week the eurusd currency pair was traded in a mixed manner. The Monday trading session started with a strong move from levels around 1,03 all the way down toward 1,05. This was not at all sustainable for the currency pair, so the rest of the week eurusd was traded between 1,044 and 1,031. The reversal toward the down side occurred in the Friday trading session, after the NFP and unemployment data. The currency pair ended the week at the level of 1,032. The RSI is still struggling to hold levels above the 50, but still without success. The indicator was mostly moving around the 45 level. This is an indication that investors are still not quite sure which side to trade. The moving average of 50 days is still diverging from MA200, indicating that there will be no cross of lines in the near period. Friday's move of the currency pair to the higher grounds for the US Dollar, which occurred after the NFP data were released, is actually pointing that the market is still expecting interest rates to stay higher for a longer period of time. Although the figure of NFP jobs was lower from market expectation, still average hourly earnings showed some increase in the latest period, which might bring inflation to higher grounds, and consequently, impact Fed's decision to hold interest rates at current levels for a longer period of time. Markets will use the week ahead to digest a bit of the latest jobs data, in which sense, some reversal might be possible. Still, without significant data related to inflation, it should not be expected to make any significant move toward the upside. The Resistance line at 1,04 could easily be tested, however, for the higher grounds, there is currently no clear indication on charts. Just in case that the market decides to continue with the downtrend, then the level of 1,02 might be tested. Important news to watch during the week ahead are: EUR: Industrial Production in January in the Euro Zone, GDP Growth rate Q/Q second estimate for Q4 for the Euro Zone, USD: Fed Chair Powell testimony at Tuesday, Inflation rate for January, the Producers Price Index in January, Retail Sales in January, Industrial Production in January
FX:EURUSD continues to consolidate around 1.0300 level. Recently, the market gapped down again, but that gap has already been filled. Last week, the price declined following a news release, respecting the downward trendline and breaking below the 1.03500 level. Overall, the price is forming a triangle pattern, forming lower highs and higher lows. Given that the market has bounced off the upper boundary of the pattern, I anticipate it may retest the lower boundary. I expect the market to reject the resistance and subsequently retest last week's low. My goal is support zone around 1.02270 Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad ??
USD/JPY Short Minimum entry requirements: • Break above area of value. • 1H impulse down below area of value. • If tight non-structured 15 min continuation follows, 5 min risk entry within it if the continuation is structured on the 5 min chart or reduced risk entry on the break of it. • If tight structured 15 min continuation follows, reduced risk entry on the break of it or 15 min risk entry within it. EUR/NZD Long Minimum entry requirements: • Break below area of value. • 1H impulse up above area of value. • If tight non-structured 15 min continuation follows, 5 min risk entry within it if the continuation is structured on the 5 min chart or reduced risk entry on the break of it. • If tight structured 15 min continuation follows, reduced risk entry on the break of it or 15 min risk entry within it.
I think Bitcoin will have one more upside. When? That's anyones guess.