H4 POI has been reached. Waiting for sell to the downside until the 79% is reached. Will take buys from that area to take longs to the upside, from the green arrow zone.
AMEX:SPY is at a pivotal point and could potentially be at the top of the bullish cycle that began in October 2022. If this prediction proves accurate, I think we could see a maximum low of $510 for this year. There are a couple of caveats, including one that will be a clear indicator of whether or not this wave count is accurate, which I will explain later. https://www.tradingview.com/x/LAJoxUrF/ On the 1000R chart ($10), this uptrend was confirmed by Supertrend and volume activity. Volume drastically increased at the start of Wave (3) in March 2023 and did not taper off until the start of Wave (4) in July 2024. This was the strongest impulse in the trend, which is common for Wave 3. You can also see the ADX line of the DMI indicator (white line) was at its highest level during that period. Assuming Wave (5) is already complete, we can observe that the volume in Wave (3) was considerably less than Wave (5). https://www.tradingview.com/x/ehhMsxH8/ Other observations supporting this wave count: - Wave (4) retracing into the territory of Wave 4 of (3) - Alternation in corrective patterns between Wave (2) and Wave (4); flat in (2) and straight down in (4) - Wave (5) extending to nearly 1.618 of (1) https://www.tradingview.com/x/I1nui1Xq/ While the points I’ve made so far suggest that the market may be on the verge of a crash, the image gets more complicated when you take a closer look on the 250R chart ($2.50). I’ll start with what I’m counting as Wave 4 of (5). The price ended at ATH in Wave 3 and then corrected in an unmistakable five wave descending wedge pattern. This can only be a fourth wave of a larger impulse, so we can conclude with a fair amount of confidence that the wave that follows will be the last. https://www.tradingview.com/x/OhLRWXRZ/ Here is where things get interesting. The price moved from $575 on January 13th to a slightly higher ATH of $609.24 on January 24th before being rejected again. This uptrend unfolded in a typical bullish pattern and left a notable gap at $584, which is the only gap still left unfilled. The trend change is confirmed on the moving averages. Notice the serious drop in volume that followed as well. https://www.tradingview.com/x/2gEgzfAE/ Despite the shift in volume, there are two issues I have with this wave count that are preventing me from calling this a confirmed correction: 1. Wave 5 of (5) was awfully short and only extended roughly $2 above the end of Wave 3 of (5). This does not break any rules, but it is unusual. 2. What I have labelled as Wave B of Wave (1) or (A) of the correction made a new ATH on Friday February 14th, which should invalidate this wave count since the end of Wave 5 of (5) should be the peak. https://www.tradingview.com/x/66GICv9z/ The second point is why some may think that we are about to resume the larger bull trend, however there is a possibility that they are mistaken based off the PA on the actual index SP:SPX and futures CME_MINI:ES1! . On the SP:SPX chart, we can see that the index did not break the ATH at $6128.18 set on January 25th, and instead rejected at $6,127.24. https://www.tradingview.com/x/FXyB0ctk/ CME_MINI:ES1! also failed to notch a new ATH on Friday and I have observed the price action create a nearly perfect bearish butterfly pattern. Also notice how the volume is significantly lower than in the uptrend that began on January 31st. So the question remains: are we at a tipping point or will the bulls regain control? Right now it’s unclear, but I will keep my bearish sentiment until SP:SPX makes a new ATH, which will invalidate this theory. Since only the ETF that tracks it only made a slightly higher high on low volume, I’m skeptical of the PA on AMEX:SPY at the moment. This is why I entered puts on Friday. https://www.tradingview.com/x/gV6b8w01/ If the trade plays out, I expect the price to quickly move to fill the gap at $584, which is still conveniently located at what I cam considering the 1.236 extension of Wave A, which is a common target extension in flat corrections. I will keep my puts open until this idea is invalidated, as the Wave C drop will likely be caused by a news event that could come at any time. Let me know if you guys are seeing the same thing or something different. Good luck to all!
Gold best sell zone 4h time frame M pattern next week target 2860 it's possible! Not financial advise trade and manage your own risk .
Weekly: https://www.tradingview.com/x/gB9Zu6tD/ Daily: https://www.tradingview.com/x/4gwYxDcp/ 4H: https://www.tradingview.com/x/K06h61eT/
Key Level Zone: 15.230 - 15.500 HMT v6 detected. The setup looks promising, supported by a previous upward/downward trend with increasing volume and momentum, presenting an excellent reward-to-risk opportunity. HMT (High Momentum Trending): HMT is based on trend, momentum, volume, and market structure across multiple timeframes. It highlights setups with strong potential for upward movement and higher rewards. Whenever I spot a signal for my own trading, I’ll share it. Please note that conducting a comprehensive analysis on a single timeframe chart can be quite challenging and sometimes confusing. I appreciate your understanding of the effort involved. Important Note : Role of Key Levels: - These zones are critical for analyzing price trends. If the key level zone holds, the price may continue trending in the expected direction. However, momentum may increase or decrease based on subsequent patterns. - Breakouts: If the key level zone breaks, it signals a stop-out. For reversal traders, this presents an opportunity to consider switching direction, as the price often retests these zones, which may act as strong support-turned-resistance (or vice versa). My Trading Rules Risk Management - Maximum risk per trade: 2.5%. - Leverage: 5x. Exit Strategy Profit-Taking: - Sell at least 70% on the 3rd wave up (LTF Wave 5). - Typically, sell 50% during a high-volume spike. - Adjust stop-loss to breakeven once the trade achieves a 1.5:1 reward-to-risk ratio. - If the market shows signs of losing momentum or divergence, ill will exit at breakeven. The market is highly dynamic and constantly changing. HMT signals and target profit (TP) levels are based on the current price and movement, but market conditions can shift instantly, so it is crucial to remain adaptable and follow the market's movement. If you find this signal/analysis meaningful, kindly like and share it. Thank you for your support~ Sharing this with love! HMT v2.0: - Major update to the Momentum indicator - Reduced false signals from inaccurate momentum detection - New screener with improved accuracy and fewer signals HMT v3.0: - Added liquidity factor to enhance trend continuation - Improved potential for momentum-based plays - Increased winning probability by reducing entries during peaks HMT v3.1: - Enhanced entry confirmation for improved reward-to-risk ratios HMT v4.0: - Incorporated buying and selling pressure in lower timeframes to enhance the probability of trending moves while optimizing entry timing and scaling HMT v4.1: - Enhanced take-profit (TP) target by incorporating market structure analysis HMT v5 : Date: 23/01/2025 - Refined wave analysis for trending conditions - Incorporated lower timeframe (LTF) momentum to strengthen trend reliability - Re-aligned and re-balanced entry conditions for improved accuracy HMT v6 : Date : 15/02/2025 - Integrated strong accumulation activity into in-depth wave analysis
Someone asked me about predicting market movements with certainty. In response to a question about detecting large orders and forecasting market direction, let’s explore how markets truly operate and how to grow as a trader. The Nature of Market Movement Markets move through collective behavior, not individual orders. Even when sentiment indicators show a near 50:50 split between short/long positions, markets can still trend strongly in one direction. Why? Because market movement depends on: The aggressiveness of orders (market orders vs. limit orders) Timing of trade execution Position sizes and their distribution Psychological factors affecting mass behavior Example: Imagine BITSTAMP:BTCUSD with apparently balanced sentiment. Yet, if long positions are primarily passive limit orders while shorts are aggressive market orders with tight stops, the price could trend down sharply despite the "balanced" ratio. The Illusion of Certainty There is no way to predict market direction with certainty. The market comprises millions of participants with: Different analysis methods Various timeframes (scalpers to long-term investors) Diverse motivations (hedging, speculation, investment) Unique reactions to the same news Real-world Example: During major news events like FOMC meetings, you'll often see prices swing violently in both directions. Why? Because even with the same information, traders interpret and react differently based on their: Portfolio needs Risk tolerance Trading timeframe Overall market view Building Better Trading Habits Instead of seeking certainty, focus on developing good trading habits: 1. Risk Management First Use proper position sizing (never risk more than 1-2% per trade) Set stops based on technical levels, not arbitrary numbers Example: If trading support/resistance, place stops beyond the next significant level, not just at round numbers 2. Asymmetric Returns Aim for trades where potential profit exceeds potential loss Target 1:2 risk-reward at minimum Example: If risking $100, your minimum target should be $200 profit 3. Consistency in Strategy - Stick to your trading plan even when other strategies look attractive - Document all trades and review regularly - Example: Keep a trading journal with setup, entry, exit, and lessons learned 4. Building Good Habits Start each day with market analysis Review major news and potential impact Set clear entry/exit rules before trading Regular review of trading performance Example Schedule: - 8:00 AM: Market overview - 8:30 AM: Review potential setups - 9:00 AM: Check for news events - 4:00 PM: End-of-day review Common Pitfalls to Avoid 1. Strategy Hopping Switching strategies frequently based on recent performance Following multiple traders with different approaches Solution: Commit to one approach for at least 3 months 2. Overtrading Taking trades out of boredom or FOMO Solution: Set daily/weekly trade limits 3. Revenge Trading Trying to recover losses quickly Solution: Take a break after losses, review what went wrong Remember: The market doesn't care about what you want. It moves based on collective action, not individual desires. Focus on adapting to market conditions rather than trying to predict them. Your success in trading isn't determined by how much you know, but by how well you apply what you know through consistent, disciplined habits.
On the USD/CAD 5D time frame chart, the price is currently experiencing a significant decline after reaching the resistance area around 1.46721. This pullback remains within the context of a long-term uptrend, as indicated by the ascending trendline, which has repeatedly acted as support since 2021. The primary scenario in this analysis suggests that the price could retest the support area around the ascending trendline and the previous breakout zone (blue area), located in the 1.38 - 1.39 range. If the price finds strong support in this area and shows signs of reversal, a buy opportunity can be considered, with an upside target back to the 1.46721 resistance level. In this analysis process, several confirmations should be observed before making an entry decision: Price Reaction at Trendline Support – If the price shows a strong bounce at this level, the bullish scenario remains valid. Reversal Candlestick Confirmation – Patterns like bullish engulfing or pin bars can serve as reliable entry signals. On the other hand, if the price breaks below the trendline significantly, this bullish scenario may become invalid, and USD/CAD could enter a deeper correction phase. Therefore, risk management is crucial, with an ideal stop loss placed below the trendline support.
#CTXC The price is moving in a descending channel on the 1-hour frame and is adhering to it well and is heading to break it strongly upwards and retest it We have a bounce from the lower limit of the descending channel, this support is at a price of 0.1875 We have a downtrend on the RSI indicator that is about to be broken and retested, which supports the rise We have a trend to stabilize above the Moving Average 100 Entry price 0.1900 First target 0.1987 Second target 0.2037 Third target 0.2112
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