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Gold is in an oversold zone, as indicated by our RSI indicator. Therefore, we should expect a rise.
Though MSFT just hit the strong dynamic 150 daily Simple moving average, it could go lower, and the ~$320 - $330 area is very important for MSFT. The expectation for action is around 320s.
ALL trading ideas have entry point + stop loss + take profit + Risk level. hello Traders, here is the full analysis for this pair, let me know in the comment section below if you have any questions, the entry will be taken only if all rules of the strategies will be satisfied. I suggest you keep this pair on your watchlist and see if the rules of your strategy are satisfied. Please also refer to the Important Risk Notice linked below. Disclaimer
CME_MINI:ES1! Macro Update: The escalation of reciprocal tariffs and China's countermeasures have sent shockwaves through markets, with widespread selloffs across asset classes, including gold. Fund managers and investors were forced to liquidate positions to cover margin calls. The likelihood of a global recession has surged, with Goldman Sachs raising the probability of a US recession to 45% from 35%. Meanwhile, JPMorgan increased its global and US recession odds to 60%, up from 40%, due to intensifying tariff tensions. The March 2025 Federal Reserve’s SEP projections suggest slowing growth amid rising inflation concerns, pointing in the right direction. Is this a paradigm shift, or was it already set in motion earlier in the decade? Or is this simply panic selling, with the expectation that US administration policy will soon stabilize markets? If it is a paradigm shift—as seems more likely based on recent developments—the current environment could prove historic, aligning with Ray Dalio's concepts on the changing world order, debt crises, and how nations go bankrupt. Investor Confidence: ES futures are currently down over 20%, entering bear market territory for the first time since the 2020 pandemic crash. The big question now is whether we’ll see a relief rally or continued sell-offs with occasional pullbacks, or if markets are establishing a new value range based on auction market principles. • 2024 YTD mCVAL: 5379.75 • 2022 CVAH: 5376 • March 2025 Low: 5533.75 • August 5th, 2024 Low: 5306.75 • Neutral LVN: 5191.50 - 5156.25 • April 4th, 2025 Low: 5074 • 2024 Yearly Low: 5016.25 • CVPOC 2022: 4610.50 Scenario 1: Further Downside The key downside level for ES Futures is 4610.50, where the most volume has been transacted since 2022. Currently, ES Futures are trading above this level. If the market establishes a value range between 4900 and 4500, further selling with brief pullbacks and consolidation above the 2022 CVPOC seems likely. Scenario 2: Relief Rally For a rally to take hold, ES Futures faces key resistance levels: the 2024 Low at 5016.25 and the pWeek Low at 5074. If markets sustainably stay above these levels, we could see a rally toward the 2022 CVAH at 5376. However, the sustainability of such a rally remains in question given the mountain of uncertainties ahead. It is important to note that uncertainty tends to create highly volatile market regimes. Traders should adjust the expected daily range accordingly. A good indicator to measure this is “Daily Average True Range”, many traders also rely on close-to-close standard deviation bands to gauge range on a given trading day. As such, we could see moves of 3% or more in either direction on any day.
The strategy of shorting on the rebound has already yielded profits. Currently, in the 4-hour time frame, the price trend of crude oil is still under pressure from the short-term moving averages and maintains a narrow-range consolidation at a low level. The strength and sustainability of the intraday rebound are not significant. It is necessary to pay attention to the possible continuation of the downward trend after a slight breakdown in the price of crude oil. In the hourly time frame, the current trading range is relatively narrow, but the technical pattern is being repaired quite rapidly. Pay attention to the short-term adjustment. In terms of operation, consider the short-selling opportunities around the price range of 61 to 62. Trading Strategy: sell @61-62 TP:59-58 Get daily trading signals that ensure continuous profits! With an astonishing 90% accuracy rate, I'm the record - holder of an 800% monthly return. Click the link below the article to obtain accurate signals now!
Tencent's stock took a significant hit, creating a noticeable gap in the chart. Nevertheless, for now, our primary assumption remains that the price is currently working on the turquoise wave 3 and will soon move toward the resistance at HK$715. Afterward, a corrective movement should follow during wave 4. However, if the stock falls below the support at HK$364.80, downward pressure will mount significantly and make it increasingly likely that the price will drop to new lows below the nearest marks at HK$261 and HK$188.60 to develop a new low of the large wave alt. in green (probability: 36%).
Markets are currently tight squeezing due to Trumps terrifs etc, something has to give in, based on this chart: - TLT has found a bid at .963 Fibonacci level @ $82.42 (EXTREME RETRACE) - Dec 2, 2024 = the 369 ratio in time for $82.42 (time & price ?) NEXT TARGET PROJECTION IS 50% OF THE MAX TARGET ANGLE = ($121) (BETWEEN 2025 - 2029) MAX TARGET = $183 - $212 (BETWEEN 2025 - 2034)
Even if it remains in this longstanding bearish channel ETH can retest resistance up around 2000. Tumbling down out of this channel would of course be uber-bearish. However even in this (overhyped?) Bloody Monday it managed to respect support. So a swing trade up this week is of interest to me. Not advice. What are your thoughts?
? ES1! - S&P 500 E-mini Futures (Daily) We’re approaching a critical point on the long-term trendline. ? Price has bounced sharply after a steep pullback, reacting right at the dynamic support that’s held since the 2022 lows. ? Two possible scenarios: Bullish Continuation: support holds, the index regains momentum and pushes back toward the highs. Bearish Breakdown: trendline breaks, signaling a potential structural shift with downside targets possibly below 4000. ? Momentum indicator is in extreme territory → wait for confirmation, don’t anticipate.