SMCI (SUPER MICRO COMPUTER): AI-DRIVEN GROWTH AMID GOVERNANCE WOES 1/8 Super Micro Computer ( NASDAQ:SMCI ) just revealed prelim Q2 FY2025 sales of $5.6–5.7B (+54% YoY), riding AI’s wave. But delayed filings & margin pressure spark caution. Let’s dig in! ?⚡️ 2/8 – REVENUE & EARNINGS SNAPSHOT • Q2 sales: $5.7B (vs. $5.9B est.), EPS: ~$0.59 (est. $0.64) • Full-year outlook trimmed to $23.5–25B (was $26–30B) • Non-GAAP gross margin: ~11.9%; operating margin: ~7.9%—still under pressure ? 3/8 – KEY FINANCIAL EVENTS • $700M in 2.25% convertible senior notes → fueling AI server growth • Filing delays (10-K, 10-Qs) → must meet Feb 25, 2025 to avoid Nasdaq delisting • New auditor BDO checks the books—no fraud found, but concerns linger about governance ? 4/8 – GOVERNANCE & INVESTIGATIONS • Ongoing SEC & DOJ probes after Hindenburg’s short-seller report • CEO says they’ll meet filing deadline, but trust is still shaky • Market watchers: “No fraud found” is good, but the uncertainty stings ? 5/8 – SECTOR CONTEXT • Competes with Dell ( NYSE:DELL ), HPE ( NYSE:HPE )—both see AI demand, but SMCI more focused • SMCI trades at ~11x 2025 earnings (vs. Dell at 15x, HPE at 12x) • Could be undervalued—but only if governance issues don’t overshadow the AI growth story ? 6/8 – RISKS • Margin Pressure: R&D + product mix + potential GPU shipment delays (Nvidia Blackwell) • Debt Load: Total debt now ~$1.9B, plus $700M in convertible notes • Regulatory Overhang: Missing that Feb 25 deadline = serious delisting risk ⚠️ 7/8 Is SMCI worth the gamble? 1️⃣ Bullish—AI potential outweighs the risks 2️⃣ Neutral—Need clarity on filings & margins 3️⃣ Bearish—Governance red flags trump growth Vote below! ?️? 8/8 – STRATEGIC OUTLOOK • 70%+ revenue from AI platforms → big edge if servers remain hot • Partnerships w/ Nvidia & push into liquid-cooled data centers • Delaying or messing up compliance could sabotage all that potential ?
Greetings to everyone, this is RONIN! ? In this article, we will try to analyze the current trends in both the crypto market as a whole and specifically Bitcoin. I believe you might have noticed a certain calming of movements within the price range of $100,000 to $94,000. Over the past few weeks, Bitcoin has been fluctuating within this range, gradually and slowly recovering ? but quickly returning to the price level ?. Based on the chart, I can make a clear assumption that the market is in a local sideways range, which has locked our movements in anticipation of a further impulse and a breakout of the $103,000 level ?. However, we haven’t seen the price consolidate above this level. ? Level analysis shows that the market has attempted to break through the key support zone at $92,400 six times, but each time it approached this zone, massive buybacks occurred, pushing Bitcoin slightly upwards. ? What is the market waiting for? Why isn't it surging to $120,000–$150,000 or dropping to $88,000? The answer is simple: the market is currently driven by two emotions—fear and greed ??, as always, but now we have a very interesting situation that the crypto market has never been in before! ? Let’s dive deeper into what’s happening here We have the Trump effect ??, which has awakened the American public and economy. More than 20 states are already planning to create Bitcoin reserves, and there are active discussions about establishing a national federal cryptocurrency reserve ??. However, alongside this, we face the risk of economic instability and potential trade wars ⚔️ between the U.S. and China ???? as well as the U.S. and Europe ????. ❓ But why should trade wars concern us when we’re talking about cryptocurrency? The answer is simple: these trade wars won’t directly impact crypto, but they will have an indirect effect. ? When the world is stable, investors are open to risk. They actively invest in cryptocurrencies, stocks, and ETFs ?. ? When instability looms, they shift their capital into safe-haven assets ?, such as gold ?, which has been breaking records over the past few months. ? We’ve already witnessed how trade wars can indirectly influence the crypto market. For example, the recent Ethereum crash ? from $3,200 to $2,100 overnight ?—a 30% drop in market capitalization. ? What’s actually happening? ? There are no specific negative news events for crypto, but there are technical liquidation imbalances. Exchanges can manipulate liquidity ?—for example, by selling or buying assets worth billions of dollars, forcing futures traders into liquidations ??. That night alone, $8,000,000,000 was liquidated—setting a record for altcoin liquidations in a single day! ? ? What’s next? Right now, there’s a strong fundamental trend: ✔️ Institutional investors are entering crypto ?️ ✔️ The U.S., EU, and major countries are getting involved in cryptocurrency regulation and adoption ? ✔️ Futures ETFs and other financial instruments are making market entry easier ? But! ? There are three "black swans" that could temporarily change the trend: 1️⃣ The U.S.-China Trade War ⚔️ – If tensions escalate, major players might use this for market manipulation ? – I personally plan to hold through and buy assets at key support levels ? 2️⃣ Delays in the establishment of the federal Bitcoin reserve ??? – If there are delays and political disagreements, this could temporarily weaken investor interest ❄️ – However, this is only a matter of time, as the process is inevitable. 3️⃣ Geopolitical tensions ?️⚠️ – Conflicts in the Middle East, Europe, and other regions could create economic uncertainty. – However, a swift resolution of the Russia-Ukraine war could be perceived positively by the market, boosting capital inflows into crypto ? ? Chart-Based Forecast ? Key support level — $92,473 ? ? If the price breaks below and consolidates for 2-3 daily candles, the market could enter a medium-term correction toward $80,000 – $72,000 ? ? However, a bounce from $92,400 and a move toward $100,000 is a more likely scenario ? At the moment, big players benefit from keeping the market in suspense, triggering stop-losses and liquidations for traders using leverage ?. ? My conclusion: There is no fundamental reason for a major crash, but short-term manipulations are possible. ? Follow me on TradingView! ? ? Or check out my analytical resource, which will be fully operational soon! ??
M https://www.tradingview.com/x/sdwUxzRs/ NM IC very clean zone W https://www.tradingview.com/x/RN5ODtvY/ Inv H&S with double bottom D https://www.tradingview.com/x/mM8XoI0a/ ICC buying zone tp at H&S 4H https://www.tradingview.com/x/BkNnSIjY/ Inv H&S + BoS retest on the W and M-structure
?Welcome to TradeCity Pro! Let's dive into Bitcoin analysis. As usual, I will review the best futures triggers for the New York session. The U.S. inflation report has just been released, so we can consider its impact when opening positions. ⌛️ 1-Hour Timeframe Yesterday’s analysis activated the short trigger at 97218, leading the price to the first target at 95979, where it found new support at 95108. I hope you took advantage of yesterday’s trigger and profited from the market movement. ? Today, we have valid triggers for opening positions, as an interesting structure has formed for both long and short trades. If 95108 support breaks, you can enter a short position with a target at 92702. ? Market volume has been decreasing since reaching 95108, and we need to see which direction volume enters next. If bearish volume increases along with the support break, bearish momentum will strengthen, potentially initiating the next downward leg. ? The long trigger is at 96394, with momentum confirmation coming from an RSI break above 50. This setup is considered risky and should be entered with minimal risk. The main long trigger is at 98482, which has become a strong resistance, and its targets could be 99946 and 101819. ? BTC.D Analysis Yesterday’s BTC.D triggers were not activated, and the dominance is currently ranging. ? A curved trendline is visible on the chart. If it breaks, the trigger for confirmation will be at 61.49, signaling an increase in Bitcoin dominance. ✔️ Support at 61.10 is a key level, and considering the current market momentum, it is likely that this support will break, leading to a trend shift. https://www.tradingview.com/x/I1KYMiEh/ ⌛️ Total2 Analysis Yesterday’s Total2 short trigger was activated alongside Bitcoin’s short trigger, so if you opened short positions on altcoins, you should currently be in profit. ? Today, we also have valid triggers for trading. The short trigger is at 1.19, but this level is quite risky. The main short trigger is at 1.16. However, as seen earlier, Bitcoin’s trigger is much cleaner, and if Bitcoin dominance drops, a short position on Bitcoin will likely be better than on altcoins. ? For long positions, 1.24 is a valid trigger, but the price is still far from it. If this level breaks, we could open a long position with a target at 1.28. https://www.tradingview.com/x/N9m98iT3/ ⌛️ USDT.D Analysis USDT dominance triggers have not yet been activated, but the key levels have been updated. Here are the new triggers: ? If 4.62 breaks (which is already happening and may complete within this candle), USDT dominance will increase, confirming our short positions. ? For long positions, the trigger is at 4.44. If this level breaks, USDT dominance could drop to 4.24. https://www.tradingview.com/x/u2J5gian/ ❌ Disclaimer ❌ Trading futures is highly risky and dangerous. If you're not an expert, these triggers may not be suitable for you. You should first learn risk and capital management. You can also use the educational content from this channel. Finally, these triggers reflect my personal opinions on price action, and the market may move completely against this analysis. So, do your own research before opening any position.
CPI today 12th Feb has pushed it away from support. double bottom on the 4H, now its a bull ride to the resistance line. 2WEEK uptrend.
This trade took a lot of patience as we consolidated in profit for a while failing to break that minor zone of support multiple times. Currently up about 3% I'm looking for price to continue it's bearish move in hopes of reaching our 4% take profit.
I expected usdcad to buy based on my analysis (time and price) it broke out at newyork open and did 30pips
As we mentioned in our previous commantary we are ready to sell if 2880 breaks. Thanks to those traders whom follow us and are successful in selling ? Today we started selling from 2993 and we closed and exit at 2863. Today our setup gives us accumulate and incredible results.
The Euro FX futures contract (6E1) has recently experienced a notable pullback, creating a potential opportunity to buy the dip. Given the broader trend of strength in the euro or short-term technical support levels, this dip could provide an attractive entry point for traders looking to capitalize on a rebound.
Understanding that the expected risk-reward ratio before a trade often differs from the actual outcome is crucial. Over-focusing on a high ratio can lead to missed opportunities or premature stop-outs. So, what’s the solution? In this video, we explore how an initial 1:1 risk-reward ratio trade turns into a 1:2 or 1:3 multiple trade. This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.