Outside of the obvious news on Tarriffs, let's just focus on technicals for a moment: In case you’re in a hurry: My HMA Z-Score Probability Indicator is currently signaling overbought conditions. The Z-Score has moved into the upper green zone, a level where reversals have historically occurred. Hull Moving Average (HMA) remains upward for now, but is approaching a potential flattening point. Price continues to respect a descending trendline, indicating resistance remains intact. Unless the trendline is broken with conviction, the probability favors a bearish reversion in SPY. HMA Z-Score Indicator Forecast: SPY Nearing Reversion Risk This week, my HMA Z-Score Probability Indicator is signaling a statistically significant overbought condition in SPY. In case you are unfamiliar, this tool blends the statistical power of the Z-Score with the responsiveness of the Hull Moving Average to give us high-probability momentum and mean reversion setups. Let’s break down what it’s showing right now and why a pullback may be imminent. Z-Score in the Green: What That Means The Z-Score component of my indicator is now in the upper green zone, which I’ve defined as statistically overbought territory. This isn’t arbitrary, it's based on historical distribution thresholds that flag when price has moved too far, too fast from its average. In past instances when the Z-Score has reached these levels, the market has often reverted back toward the mean. It's not guaranteed, of course but the odds shift. This is one of the key features of my indicator: identifying these moments where the risk/reward tilts away from chasing price and toward anticipating a reversion. HMA as a Momentum Filter The Hull Moving Average (HMA) provides the trend context in this setup. Right now, the HMA is still pointing upward, but it’s starting to show early signs of rounding off. If it begins to flatten or turn downward while the Z-Score remains elevated, that would act as a confirmation of a momentum shift and strengthen the case for a pullback. The HMA has consistently helped filter out false Z-Score signals when the trend is strong. But when both tools start aligning, that's when I pay closer attention. Descending Trendline Holding as Resistance On the chart, I’ve drawn a descending trendline connecting recent swing highs. So far, price has failed to break through this line, continuing a pattern of lower highs. As long as price respects that line, it suggests sellers are still in control of the short-term structure. If SPY gets rejected again here, particularly while the Z-Score is elevated, the probability of a downside move increases significantly. Bearish Bias: What the Data Suggests The core logic behind this setup is based on reversion to the mean. When price extends beyond typical volatility bands (as measured by the Z-Score) and momentum stalls (as reflected by the HMA), it often precedes a return to more normalized levels. Right now, we have: A Z-Score reading in overbought territory, A potentially topping HMA, Resistance still holding at the descending trendline. That’s a confluence of signals that, in my indicator's design, suggests a bearish reversion is more likely than a continuation. What I’m Watching This Week To confirm the setup, I’ll be watching for: HMA flattening or beginning to roll over, Break of recent short-term support to trigger downside momentum. If these conditions start stacking up, the short bias becomes actionable. If instead we see a breakout above the trendline with conviction and volume, I’ll re-evaluate because no indicator is bigger than price. The HMA Z-Score Probability Indicator is designed to anticipate high-probability turning points, and right now, it's signaling elevated risk for a short-term reversal in SPY. As always, these are probabilities, not certainties.
Selling into the rally guys not all keeping some we can higher Not sure how far until u get that weekly turning up thru 30% selling into rally. Have a hedge on.
The volatility of gold has increased recently, which is closely related to the market's rapid reaction to tariff remarks. On the hourly chart, after the gold price surged to $3,245/ounce, it was suppressed by short-term profit-taking and showed signs of decline. The relative strength index (RSI) shows that there is a risk of overbought in the market in the short term, but it has not reached an extreme level, indicating that the pullback is more of a technical adjustment than a trend reversal. In terms of the moving average system, the 5-day moving average and the 10-day moving average continue to maintain a golden cross state, indicating that short-term momentum is still bullish. Investment strategy: Gold more than 3,200, stop loss 3,190, target 3,266
I've been closely watching GBP/USD, and as of now, the pair is trading at 1.31771. Based on my technical analysis and upcoming market events, I believe the best trade setup is a short position, but only after confirming a rejection near 1.316–1.317. Why This Short Trade Makes Sense Overbought Conditions The daily RSI is at 76.08, meaning the pair is in overbought territory. This increases the likelihood of a pullback rather than a continued rally. Other momentum indicators (like Stochastic RSI) show that buying pressure is weakening, further supporting the case for a reversal. Key Resistance at 1.320 Price has tested 1.320 multiple times but failed to break above it, reinforcing this area as strong resistance. The recent high at 1.31998 showed rejection, indicating that bullish momentum is struggling. Upcoming Fundamental Events The UK retail sales data exceeded expectations, providing some short-term support for GBP. However, upcoming major US economic releases—including Empire State Manufacturing and Retail Sales—could shift sentiment. With Fed Chair Powell speaking on April 16, volatility is expected, and I prefer to wait for these catalysts before fully committing to a position. My Trade Plan Entry: I’ll wait to sell GBP/USD after confirming rejection at 1.316–1.317. Final Thoughts I’m waiting for clear price rejection before entering. If GBP/USD struggles to break higher and starts reversing at 1.316–1.317, that’s my signal to short. At the same time, I’ll watch how the upcoming economic events influence market sentiment—especially the US retail sales data and Powell’s speech. This approach ensures I’m trading based on confirmation rather than speculation, reducing the risk of entering prematurely.
Hello Dear Traders Eric Is Here !! Here Is My predictions About Gold Kindly Check And Share your ideas About it. XAUUSD (Gold) Currently Running Near 3210-08 i Expect If Gold Breaks Resistance OF 3230-32 Price Will Move to 3270-68 , 3191 is Strong Support of The Week If Gold Breaks it we will Stop The Bullish . Key Points Are Given: Support Area 3191 Resistance Area 3230 Target Point 3268-70 Like & Comments with Your Feedback.
As of April 14, 2025, gold has surged to record highs near $3,265, but the technical picture suggests trend exhaustion. Price action resembles a potential expanding triangle top, with bearish divergence on RSI and momentum, declining volume on rallies, and seasonal cycles hinting at weakness into May–June. This may not be a fresh impulse but rather a volatile topping formation. If the triangle pattern holds, we could see a breakdown toward the $2,950–$2,800 zone before another base forms. Short-term traders should be cautious and consider scaling into shorts only on failed bounces near resistance. Longs may want to wait until strong support zones around $2,750–$2,850 show signs of stabilization. Risk/reward now favors defense over chase. Bearish Divergence Across the Board: RSI & Momentum indicators failed to confirm new highs Volume spiked on selloffs, not on breakouts Possible expanding triangle top forming (ABCDE pattern), often a major topping structure Cycle & Fibonacci Confluence: Seasonal weakness into May–June aligns with cycle top Key retracement targets: $3,045 → $2,950 → $2,870 → $2,800 Support zone to watch: $2,750–$2,850 Trade Strategy Ideas: Short-Term Plan (1–3 Weeks) Bias: Bearish or Neutral Pattern: Expanding Triangle (C Wave Possibly Unfolding) Key Levels: Resistance: $3,265 (recent high), $3,200 (round-number, prior Wave B) Initial Downside Targets: $3,045 (23.6% Fib), $2,950 (38.2%) Stretch Target: $2,870–$2,800 (50–61.8% Fib, Cycle Support Zone) Entry Plan (Short Bias): Consider short positions on weak bounce rejections near $3,200–$3,240 if momentum remains divergent. Watch for breakdowns under $3,100 with high volume confirmation. Stop Loss: Above $3,275 (new highs invalidate C wave assumption) Scale Out: Partial profits at $3,045, more at $2,950 Final Target: $2,870–$2,800 zone Re-evaluate: If strong reversal candles or bullish volume return before $2,950, exit early. Medium-Term Plan (1–2 Months) Bias: Wait for correction to finish before new long Key Timing: Cycle projection into late May–June 2025 Buy Zone (if correction unfolds): Primary: $2,750–$2,850 (50–61.8% retracement & prior breakout zone) Entry Strategy: Wait for a weekly bullish reversal candle or a clear RSI bottoming with momentum confirmation in the $2,750–$2,850 zone. Prefer entries during a low-volatility retest or after a capitulation flush into major support. Stop Loss: Below $2,700 Initial Targets for Bounce: $3,045 → $3,200 Scale Out Strategy: Scale in between $2,800–$2,750 Begin scaling out above $3,045 and $3,150 if bounce occurs Long-Term Plan (3–6+ Months) Bias: Neutral to Cautiously Bullish (contingent on structure post-correction) Trend Review: If correction resolves and price bases around $2,800, long-term bulls may re-enter. Invalidation of Bullish Thesis: A sustained break below $2,700 with heavy volume and commercial selling. Next Major Bullish Cycle Potential: Wave structure reset scenario: After expanding triangle resolution and larger ABC correction, new 5-wave impulse could begin in late Q2 2025. Macro-Level Support: If global macro uncertainty rises again, gold could re-target $3,300 and higher. Action: Remain flat until a confirmed low forms. Position building to be considered once weekly momentum resets and smart money returns. ? DYOR. Not financial advice. #Gold #GC_F #Futures #ElliottWave #TechnicalAnalysis #Seasonality #Momentum #RSI #ShortSetup
Daily Chart Analysis On the daily chart, XAUUSD has surged to new highs, signaling an overextended market as gold rallies far above previous price swings. The price is now trading at a premium, which indicates that much of the bullish momentum may already be priced in. As a result, there is potential for a pullback toward a more attractive entry area. Specifically, a retracement into a discounted zone—ideally below the 50% level of the previous swing—may offer a better long opportunity rather than entering at these extended levels. ?⚠️ 4-Hour Chart Analysis Examining the 4-hour timeframe reveals more granular price action that aligns with the daily trend. Here, gold displays signs of potential exhaustion with the recent impulsive moves. The market structure hints at the possibility of a short-term setup if the price begins to reverse, aligning with basic Wyckoff theory principles. This suggests that while there might be an interim short play if the reversal is confirmed, the expectation remains that a healthy pullback will eventually pave the way for a new long opportunity once the price finds support. ?? Integrating Price Action, Market Structure & Wyckoff Theory Using elements of Wyckoff theory, it's clear that the current rally has pushed the market into an overbought state. • The price action indicates a likely initiation of a distribution phase, where selling pressure might temporarily take over. • A pullback into the discounted zone (particularly under the 50% retracement of the prior range) would be an ideal opportunity to look for a buying setup. • On the flip side, if the shorter-term setup solidifies, a conservative short play could be considered until signs of accumulation emerge. This dual perspective underscores the importance of disciplined risk management and monitoring short-term reversals while keeping an eye on the broader trend. ??? Summary of Key Takeaways XAUUSD is currently overextended with a strong rally to new highs. While the momentum is robust, the premium pricing compared to previous swings suggests caution. A pullback into a discounted zone, specifically below the 50% retracement level, could provide a more enticing entry point for those looking to go long. Concurrently, the 4-hour chart offers potential setups for a short play should price action indicate a reversal. Coupling these observations with Wyckoff theory fundamentals can allow for a balanced, dynamic trading strategy. ? Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consult with a professional before making any trading decisions.
Here in this chart starting in the higher TF we can notice lots of selling pressure. Every time price hit this key level we can notice a significant sell off. From previous new in the past few weeks we can notice a strong Supply zone to look to sell from. This supply zone has a clean Mitigation Block within it. If we sell this Supply zone it will be a strong possibility that we break out of this parallel channel giving us a break out. Dropping down into the 6H we can notice a first target being the sell side liquidity. Im targeting here as the demand zone has been invalidated from this previous price movement giving me good conditions to sell into Please do feel free to follow me or dm me about this read
Looking like we may see a sell off to bull support. Price starting to break down in the area of the original sell off of the descending channel that had strong bears present.
#ELRIDGE 15042025 ep - 0.505 sl - 0.455 (9.9%) tp - 0.555 (9.9%) rrr - 1X High Risk