? Chart Analysis: Identifying the Double Top Pattern The EURJPY (Euro/Japanese Yen) 1-hour chart shows a classic Double Top pattern, which is a strong bearish reversal formation. This pattern occurs when the price reaches a significant resistance level twice but fails to break above it, indicating a potential shift from bullish momentum to bearish control. 1️⃣ Top 1: The first peak formed as buyers pushed the price higher, but strong resistance forced a pullback. 2️⃣ Top 2: The price attempted to break the same resistance level again but failed, forming a second peak at approximately 164.165, confirming that sellers are overpowering buyers. 3️⃣ Neckline (Support Level): The critical support level around 160.000 acted as a trigger for the bearish move. Once this level broke, the double top pattern was confirmed. ? Key Levels and Market Structure ? Resistance (164.165): The highest level where sellers dominated, preventing further upward movement. ? Support/Neckline (160.000): This level acted as a crucial pivot. Once broken, it signaled a trend reversal. ? Take Profit Levels: TP1 – 159.036: This serves as the first profit target, aligning with a prior demand zone. TP2 – 157.200: The full projected downside move based on the double top pattern. ? Stop Loss (SL): Above 164.165, ensuring a risk-managed approach in case of trend invalidation. ? Trading Strategy: How to Trade This Setup? 1️⃣ Entry Confirmation: The ideal entry was after the price broke the neckline at 160.000 and retested it as resistance. A breakdown candle with high volume confirmed seller dominance. 2️⃣ Stop-Loss Placement: A stop-loss above 164.165 provides room for price fluctuations while protecting against false breakouts. 3️⃣ Profit Targets: TP1: 159.036, securing partial profits. TP2: 157.200, completing the double top measured move. ? Market Psychology & Price Action Insights The double top pattern reflects a shift in market sentiment from bullish to bearish. The repeated rejection at 164.165 signals a lack of buying strength, increasing the probability of a downward move. The breakdown of the 160.000 neckline confirms that sellers have taken control. The price action also shows a lower-high formation, reinforcing bearish momentum. ✅ Conclusion: Bearish Bias Until 157.200 This setup strongly favors short positions, as long as the price stays below 162.500. A break above 164.165 invalidates the bearish setup, signaling a potential reversal. Until then, the market remains bearish, with TP1 & TP2 as achievable downside targets. ? What’s your outlook on EURJPY? Drop your analysis below! ?
A major shift may be underway in the EUR/USD pair, potentially signaling the euro’s resurgence after a prolonged period of dollar dominance. Historical patterns suggest that the EUR/USD cycle closely mirrors the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) cycle in inverse correlation. Given the recent inflection points, we may be entering a phase where the dollar weakens while the euro strengthens. Historical Cycles & The DXY Correlation Examining past EUR/USD bottoms, we see a recurring pattern roughly every 15–20 years, aligning inversely with DXY peaks: 1971: EUR/USD bottomed as the dollar peaked before entering a long decline. 1985: The Plaza Accord led to a major DXY peak, followed by a strong euro uptrend. 2000: The dollar peaked again, marking another significant euro rally. 2022: The most recent DXY peak (~114), coinciding with an EUR/USD low. Each of these key reversals reflects a broad shift in global monetary policy, trade balances, and economic cycles. If history is repeating, the 2022 dollar peak may have set the stage for a multi-year euro recovery, just as previous DXY tops did. Key Drivers to Watch Monetary Policy Divergence: The Fed's tightening cycle may be nearing its end, while the ECB remains cautious on rate cuts. Economic Momentum: If the U.S. economy slows while the Eurozone stabilizes, capital flows may shift towards the euro. Investor Sentiment: As DXY trends lower, it could accelerate EUR/USD bullish momentum, as seen in previous cycles. What’s Next? With the euro holding above historically significant lows and the DXY showing signs of cyclical weakening, traders should watch for confirmations of this potential long-term reversal. If past trends hold, we could be witnessing the early stages of another major EUR/USD bull cycle.
? USD/JPY Price Action Update – April 3, 2025 ? ? Current Price: 147.276 ? Timeframe: 15M ? Key Support Levels (Demand Zones): ? 147.200-147.284 – First Support Zone (Liquidity Area) ? Key Resistance Levels (Fair Value Gaps - FVGs & Supply Zones): ? 147.647 – First Resistance (FVG) ? 149.133 – Major Resistance (Potential Target) ? Bullish Scenario: If price respects the 147.200-147.284 demand zone, we could see a push towards 147.647 first. A breakout above 147.647 could indicate further bullish momentum toward 149.133. ? Bearish Scenario: If price fails to hold 147.200, we might see a deeper retracement. The next possible downside target would be below 147.000, breaking structure further. ⚡ Trading Tip: ✅ Look for confirmations like bullish candlestick rejections before entering buys. ✅ Monitor reactions at FVG zones for potential reversal trades. ✅ Use proper risk management when trading breakout zones. #USDJPY #ForexTrading #PriceAction #TechnicalAnalysis #SmartMoney #ForexSignals #JPY #ForexMarket
Market news: US trade policy-① Trump signed an executive order to establish a 10% "minimum base tariff" for all countries, and will impose reciprocal tariffs, including 20% for the EU, 24% for Japan, 46% for Vietnam, and 25% for South Korea. The tariff exemption for goods that meet the USMCA will continue, and the tariff for those that do not meet the requirements will remain at 25%; ② The US Treasury Secretary called on countries not to retaliate; ③ The base tariff will take effect on April 5, and the reciprocal tariff will take effect on the 9th. In addition, the 25% automobile tariff will take effect on the 3rd, and the automobile parts tariff will take effect on May 3rd; ④ Gold bars, copper, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors and wood products are also not subject to "reciprocal tariffs". Today's long and short boundaries: 3127 Support and resistance levels 3164 3150 3141 3113 3103 3089 Trading strategy: If the price breaks through 3150, consider going long, with the first target price at 3164 If the price breaks through 3141, consider going short, with the first target price at 3127
US500 is currently ranging between 5500 & 5485. It need to break current 5500 range to break upside resistance at PDL 5522.70 and next will test PWL 5556.90 which coincide with Tuesday low of 5555.80 before heading upwards.
EURAUD – Short Setup Developing ? Short Bias | ? Target: 1.73508 | ⏳ Deadline: April 4 Price is hovering near recent highs, and structure suggests a potential shift lower. Eyeing 1.73508 as the next magnet if momentum shifts. Already positioned short and watching for follow-through. ? All trades can be replayed on TradingView for confirmation. #EURAUD #Forex #ShortSetup #MarketAnalysis #GlobalHorns
Market news: US trade policy-① Trump signed an executive order to establish a 10% "minimum base tariff" for all countries, and will impose reciprocal tariffs, including 20% for the EU, 24% for Japan, 46% for Vietnam, and 25% for South Korea. The tariff exemption for goods that meet the USMCA will continue, and the tariff for those that do not meet the requirements will remain at 25%; ② The US Treasury Secretary called on countries not to retaliate; ③ The base tariff will take effect on April 5, and the reciprocal tariff will take effect on the 9th. In addition, the 25% automobile tariff will take effect on the 3rd, and the automobile parts tariff will take effect on May 3rd; ④ Gold bars, copper, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors and wood products are also not subject to "reciprocal tariffs". Today's buying and selling boundaries: 149.61 Support and resistance levels 150.97 150.46 150.13 149.08 148.75 148.24 Trading strategy: If the price breaks through 148.75, consider buying, the first target price is 149.08 If the price breaks through 148.24, consider selling, the first target price is 148.00
Dear Trader, Please find attached my analysis of $Subject, which uses mathematical calculations to identify potential reversal times and price levels. The analysis details projected south and north price targets (horizontal lines on the chart), along with estimated time frames for possible reversals (vertical lines on the chart, accurate to within +/- 1-2 candles). Please note that all times indicated on the chart, including the vertical lines representing potential reversal times, are based on the UTC+4 time zone. To increase the probability of these analysis, I recommend monitoring the 5-minute and 15-minute charts for the following key reversal candlestick patterns: Doji’s Hammer/Inverted Hammer Double/Triple Bottom/Top Shooting Star Morning Star Hanging Man I welcome your feedback on this analysis, as it will inform and enhance my future research. Regards, Shunya Trade ⚠️ Disclaimer: This post is educational content and does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, or trading recommendations. The views expressed here are based on technical analysis and are shared solely for informational purposes. The stock market is subject to risks, including capital loss, and readers should exercise due diligence before investing. We do not take responsibility for decisions made based on this content. Consult a certified financial advisor for personalized guidance.
Market news: US trade policy-① Trump signed an executive order to establish a 10% "minimum base tariff" for all countries, and will impose reciprocal tariffs, including 20% for the EU, 24% for Japan, 46% for Vietnam, and 25% for South Korea. The tariff exemption for goods that meet the USMCA will continue, and the tariff for those that do not meet the requirements will remain at 25%; ② The US Treasury Secretary called on countries not to retaliate; ③ The base tariff will take effect on April 5, and the reciprocal tariff will take effect on the 9th. In addition, the 25% automobile tariff will take effect on the 3rd, and the automobile parts tariff will take effect on May 3rd; ④ Gold bars, copper, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors and wood products are also not subject to "reciprocal tariffs". Today's buying and selling boundaries: 1.2976 Support and resistance levels 1.3100 1.3053 1.3023 1.2928 1.2898 1.2852 Trading strategy: If the price breaks through 1.3023, consider buying, the first target price is 1.3053 If the price breaks through 1.2976, consider selling, the first target price is 1.2928
As of April 3, 2025, Ethereum (ETH) is trading at approximately $1,838 (based on recent market data), reflecting a precarious position in the crypto market. After a volatile start to the year, ETH has shed over 44% year-to-date and is now testing critical support levels. This analysis explores the potential for an 11% drop to the $1,550 range within the next few days (by the end of this week, April 6), driven by technical breakdowns, bearish on-chain signals, and broader market pressures. Technical Analysis: Bearish Signals Mounting On the daily chart, ETH has been struggling to maintain momentum above the $1,800 psychological level. After a brief bounce from its yearly low of $1,760 on March 11, the price has failed to reclaim the $2,000 mark—a key resistance zone that previously acted as support in late 2024. Here’s a breakdown of the technical setup: Key Support Breach: The $1,800–$1,877 range has been a critical support zone, aligning with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level from the December 2024 high of $4,106 to the March 2025 low of $1,759. A close below $1,770 this week would confirm a breakdown, opening the door to the next major support at $1,550–$1,600, a level last tested in October 2023. Bearish Pattern Confirmation: The 2-hour chart shows ETH completing a corrective structure (likely an A-B-C wave) after its March 19 peak at $2,070. If wave C mirrors wave A in length—a common Elliott Wave scenario—the target aligns near $1,550, coinciding with the 1.61 external Fibonacci retracement of the recent bounce. Moving Averages: ETH is trading below both its 50-day SMA ($2,321) and 200-day SMA ($3,010), signaling a sustained bearish trend. The 50-day SMA, now sloping downward, acts as dynamic resistance, capping any relief rallies. A failure to reclaim this level soon reinforces the downside risk. RSI Oversold but Weak : The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits near 30, indicating oversold conditions. However, in strong downtrends, RSI can remain oversold for extended periods, as seen during ETH’s 2022 bear market. Momentum remains weak, with no bullish divergence to suggest an imminent reversal. Target Projection : A drop from $1,838 to $1,550 represents an 11% decline, achievable within 2–3 days if selling pressure accelerates. The $1,550 level aligns with historical support and the long-term 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, making it a plausible target. On-Chain Data: Selling Pressure Intensifies On-chain metrics paint a grim picture, supporting the bearish technical outlook: Exchange Reserves Rising: Ethereum’s exchange reserve has ticked up from 18.3 million ETH, reversing a multi-month decline. This suggests long-term holders or institutions are moving assets from cold storage to exchanges, potentially preparing to sell. Whale Activity: Recent data shows significant whale sell-offs, with large transactions (over 100 ETH) spiking in the past 48 hours. This aligns with posts on X noting whale distribution near current levels, adding downward pressure. DeFi Weakness: Ethereum’s dominance in decentralized finance (DeFi) is waning, with total value locked (TVL) dropping as competing Layer-1 chains gain traction. Reduced network activity undermines ETH’s utility-driven demand, a key pillar of its value proposition. Staking Dynamics: While staking activity increased post-Shapella upgrade, the anticipated selling pressure from unstaked ETH continues to linger, especially as macroeconomic uncertainty prompts profit-taking. Market Sentiment: Fear Dominates The broader crypto market is reeling from macroeconomic headwinds. The U.S. Core PCE Index rose to 2.8% in February, exceeding the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, signaling persistent inflation. Higher interest rates for longer dampen risk-on assets like cryptocurrencies. Posts on X reflect growing pessimism, with some traders eyeing sub-$1,000 levels if $1,760 fails—a sentiment echoed by Ethereum’s 7% drop this week alone. Bitcoin (BTC), trading near $82,000, has also faltered, dragging altcoins lower. ETH’s correlation with BTC remains high (around 0.9), and a failure to hold $80,000 for BTC could amplify ETH’s decline. Additionally, the lack of immediate catalysts—such as ETF approvals or major network upgrades—leaves ETH vulnerable to further capitulation. Price Scenarios and Key Levels Bearish Case (Base Scenario): A daily close below $1,770 triggers a swift move to $1,550–$1,600 by April 6. Volume spikes and panic selling could push it lower, though $1,550 offers strong historical support. Bullish Rejection: A reclaim of $2,070 (the March 19 high) invalidates the bearish setup, potentially sparking a relief rally to $2,250. This seems unlikely without a significant BTC breakout or positive news. Invalidation: A close above $2,120 this week would negate the short-term bearish thesis, though resistance at the 50-day SMA ($2,321) caps upside potential. Trading Strategy Entry: Short ETH below $1,770 with confirmation of increased volume. Target: $1,550 (11% drop), with a stretch goal of $1,500 if momentum persists. Stop Loss: $1,911 (intraday high from April 2), limiting risk to 4–5%. Risk/Reward: Approximately 2.5:1, assuming a $1,550 target. Conclusion Ethereum’s technical setup, coupled with bearish on-chain signals and a fearful market, suggests an 11% drop to $1,550 is plausible by the end of this week (April 6, 2025). The $1,770 level is the line in the sand—watch it closely. While oversold conditions hint at a potential bounce, the lack of buying conviction and macro pressures tilt the odds toward further downside. Traders should monitor BTC’s price action and exchange inflows for confirmation. Stay nimble, and let the charts guide your next move.