Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Still favoring doing a lower high print but we are close enough to 23000 that market can go higher. No more obvious resistance. A big maybe is the bear gap up to 23050 but that’s a gamble I am not willing to take. Today should have marked the start of the reversal with the huge bear spike but the bull reversal was beyond my comprehension. Can turn bear only below 22300 but I don’t need to long this either. Will only look for shorts on this, that’s why it’s full bear mode from here on. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 21000 - 24000 bull case: Bulls printed a higher April high and closed the month at the highs, which is a strong buy signal going into Friday and next week. The bull trend line from 19000 is valid until broken but the move up is so climactic and in a tight channel, that it’s tough to buy the highs but until bears trap late bulls and get follow-through after a sell spike, bulls are in BTFD mode and it continues to be profitable. Invalidation is below 21300. bear case: Bears don’t have much. Today could have been the final flag and we top out soon but we will only know once we drop below 22300 and continue down. For me this is a clear 3 legs up now and I have zero interest in buying up here. Big economies are most likely already in recessions and I think Q1 2025 will be the last decent quarter this year and from here on it’s downhill. Hard. Next big bucks will be made to the down side. Invalidation is above 23100. short term: Neutral. Could do 23000 or not. Today was end of month and I will wait and see what the us markets do tomorrow. Dax will be closed. Expecting a huge reversal any day now. medium-long term from 2024-03-16: Bear trend is ongoing but for now I still think 19500 and below is an amazing buy if you can hold for years. Things will have to turn really bad for this market to find acceptance below the bull trend line from the covid lows and right now this trade war is just front running. Markets were not priced for risk 3 weeks ago but this drop was too much too fast. My bearish targets for this year are met and with the current environment I will not call for lower prices than 19000. If the trade war turns real bad, yeah sure but for now it’s not. trade of the day: Selling 22700, decent double top and was good for 300 points down. Had to be mentally flexible and not try to hold short while market did a v-reversal. I fought it too much today.
The market seems to fill the 4 hours gap, and took al liquidity acumulated, now it's has all the path free to visit the daily bearish order block.
Simple head and shoulders on monthly timeframe, price is coming to our fair value sell on the weekly timeframe. price action is bearish on the daily. monthly fibs align with 240s price range.
Not predictions. Structure. Logic. Execution. ? What Happened: ? 3315–3325 SELL → Perfect rejection → Drop of 200+ pips ? Retest at 3314 → Confirmed OB rejection zone ❌ 3284–3288 BUY → Invalidated, BOS clean ✅ 3260–3270 BUY → Real reaction zone. OB + FVG + full discount → Delivered bounce ?? Eyes On (Into NY Session & May 1): 3315–3325 = Decision zone → Break = bullish reversal → Rejection = new short trigger 3260–3270 = Key support. If holds = bounce continuation 3252–3244 = Next strong buy zone if 3260 fails 3350 / 3385 = Targets only if bullish breakout occurs post-news ? Current Bias: ? HTF Trend: Consolidation under ATH → bearish-leaning ? LTF Flow: Bearish structure unless 3315 flips ? Bias: Neutral-bearish → shifting bullish only above 3325 ? KEY LEVELS TO WATCH: Zone Type Level(s) Commentary ? Resistance 3385 HTF FVG zone / reversal risk ? Resistance 3350 Clean target above breakout ? Resistance 3325 Final barrier before shift ? Flip Zone 3315–3320 Must flip to validate bulls ? Retest 3308–3312 Last OB rejection ⚖️ Mid Zone 3286–3292 Retest structure, weak ✅ Support 3260–3270 Confirmed bounce zone ? Demand 3252–3244 Next high-conviction buy zone ? Discount 3220–3235 Long-term OB zone ? Discount 3192–3205 Extreme discount + FVG ?️ MACRO FOR MAY 1: ?️ 15:30 Trump Speech ? 15:30 Unemployment Claims (forecast: 224K) ? 15:45 Final Manufacturing PMI ? 17:00 ISM Manufacturing PMI + Prices ⚠️ Expect high volatility. Prepare for breakout setups only after structure confirms — not before. ? Final Note: If 3315–3325 breaks cleanly → we’re heading to 3350 / 3385. If it holds → we hunt reentry shorts with sniper precision. This is not a place to guess. It’s where real traders wait. — ? Like plans built on logic, not luck? Drop a ? if this structure helped you. ? Follow if you're done with signal-chasing and ready to trade like a sniper.
The market seems to fill the 4 hours gap, and took al liquidity acumulated, now it's has all the path free to visit the daily bearish order block.
With gold breaking to new all-time highs and capital rotating into high-quality royalty names, Franco-Nevada looks poised to lead the charge in the next leg of the bull market. After spending nearly 3 years in a wide consolidation ($106–160), FNV has now posted a clean monthly close above $160 — the key resistance level that capped every rally since 2020. This is not just any breakout — it's the classic "base + breakout" structure that often precedes major upside moves. ? Technical Highlights: ✅ Multi-year base breakout confirmed on monthly close ✅ Strong confluence of Ichimoku, MAs & low-volume node just above $160 ✅ $160 flips from resistance to structural support (role reversal) ? Measured Move Target: $230 ? Initial Target Zone: $208–215 ? Retest of $160 offers a ~30% upside with tight risk ? Risk Management: A pullback that holds $160 on weekly/monthly close would validate the breakout. Breakdown below $160 on volume would put the move on hold and reintroduce range risk. ? Bottom Line: This is a textbook breakout with asymmetric risk/reward. While gold gets the headlines, Franco-Nevada may quietly be leading the charge in royalty sector performance.
We will be looking for and finding sell positions here. There is an evident bearish trend awaiting continuation. A bearish flag is displayed, we will hunt for the first support at 188,3
1. Entry & Current Price Zone • Current Price: Around $3,288.48 • The chart suggests a possible short-term dip to grab liquidity before a strong bullish move. ⸻ 2. Suggested Setup • Stop Loss (SL): $3,265.01 • Marked at the strong support zone—likely the invalidation level for a long position. • Take Profit (TP) Levels: 1. TP1: $3,291.00 — minor resistance/first reaction zone. 2. TP2: $3,320.00 — mid-level resistance. 3. TP3: $3,340.00 — upper resistance block. 4. TP4: $3,356.22 — major resistance. 5. TP5 (final target): $3,376.93 — Weak High, potential long-term liquidity grab. ⸻ 3. Key Support Levels • $3,285.13 — Immediate support. • $3,265.01 — Strong low (main support & SL zone).
In my opinion this chart on htf is extremely bullish looking Easy dca play at this price Accumulate cheap for long term return Target 118, could take 5 years + maybe 10
A major part of our US30 analysis is to carefully analyze the 30 companies that take part of the dow jones I made the list on my notes and will now be giving my insight of where these companies should be heading in the short future.... ill say something they're not going up for sure!!!!