Today we’ll explore the Bitcoin Terminal Price Risk Indicator , which builds on the concept of Bitcoin Terminal Price. We’ll follow the same logic as in our previous idea on the Pi Cycle Top Risk Indicator. By the end, we'll have a new tool for analyzing INDEX:BTCUSD market cycles. First, let’s recap Terminal Price. Terminal Price = Transferred Price × 21 Transferred Price = Coin Days Destroyed ÷ (supply × time) It normalizes historical spending behavior to the full 21M BTC supply. This metric has historically been effective at calling Bitcoin cycle tops whenever the price of Bitcoin crosses above it. That being said, it signaled the April 2021 peak, but not the November one. https://www.tradingview.com/x/ovFJwZv8/ Let’s now divide the weekly BTC price by Terminal Price. This gives us BTC-to-Terminal Price Ratio. (We use the formula from the Bitcoin Master Cycle indicator by InvestorUnknown for Terminal Price on TradingView.) When the ratio crosses above 1, BTC price exceeds Terminal Price and signals cycle top. We can notice that each cycle top forms slightly lower ratio peaks. https://www.tradingview.com/x/F2JyScyP/ Now let’s draw two logarithmic curves through the highs and lows of this ratio, and add a midline. This creates a band within which the BTC-to-Terminal Price ratio tends to oscillate. These bounds can help anticipate major turning points in future market cycles. https://www.tradingview.com/x/SWeqkEzl/ Next, we normalize the ratio between these bounds: bottom curve = 0, top curve = 1. This gives us the Bitcoin Terminal Price Risk Indicator. https://www.tradingview.com/x/zcGeywsM/ Currently, risk sits around 0.46 , bouncing between 0.3 and 0.6 for ~1.5 years. This range suggests a stepwise price increase with consolidation periods in between — and no mania and blow-off top. Historically: Risk > 0.9 = potential selling zone Risk < 0.1 (or < 0.05) = potential buying zone Note: Risk stays > 0.9 for just 1–2 weeks. Reality check: the top curve lies above 1 and slopes down only slightly. This implies that if the ratio approaches the upper boundary, BTC price could meet or exceed Terminal Price this cycle — currently ~$155K and will be rising quickly should BTC move towards it. https://www.tradingview.com/x/FeaXM8sL/ However, so far we have very few data points and they don’t fit the curve perfectly. And there’s no guarantee we’ll reach that upper bound. For a more conservative take, we can replace the log curve with straight lines. This steeper upper line would signal a top earlier — below Terminal Price. https://www.tradingview.com/x/s86gnTqg/ Using this method, risk is slightly higher now at 0.55. While also not perfect, this linear approximation can serve as a cautious alternative until more data points emerge. We'll keep tracking these charts.
Friday, May 2 Macro Data to Watch (Market Impact Potential): US April Jobs Report – Major market mover for USD, equities, and bonds. Sets expectations for Fed policy. US March Factory Orders – Secondary data; relevant for industrial and manufacturing sectors. Eurozone April CPI – Key inflation data; potential EUR/USD and ECB rate path influence. Eurozone March Unemployment Rate – Labor market context for ECB policy. Japan April Monetary Base & Labor Data – JPY-sensitive; signals BoJ liquidity stance. Italy Manufacturing PMI & March Unemployment – Insight into Eurozone periphery economy. France March Budget Balance – Fiscal health check; limited direct market impact. Central Bank Watch: ECB Economic Bulletin – Can give insight into ECB’s inflation and growth outlook. May guide EUR direction. Earnings (Key for Sector Moves & Index Impact): Energy: Exxon Mobil, Chevron, Shell – Crude oil-sensitive; big impact on energy indices. Healthcare & Insurance: Cigna Group – Influences healthcare and insurance stocks. Industrials/Chemicals: Eaton, BASF, DuPont – Watch for global growth signals and margins. Financials: Apollo, ING, NatWest, Standard Chartered – Useful for readthrough on credit trends and regional banking health. Autos: Mitsubishi, Italy new car registrations – Auto demand signals, relevant for sector ETFs. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
This chart illustrates a high-probability bullish setup based on a combination of market structure shifts, fair value gaps (FVGs), Fibonacci retracement confluence, and order block interaction. We are analyzing the US Tech 100 on the 1-hour timeframe, focusing on recent price action development and a potential reversal scenario forming after a corrective move. Context and Market Structure: Price action has been in a corrective downtrend after printing a local high near the 19,950–20,000 range. This move led to a break in short-term bullish structure as sell-side liquidity was swept. A series of bearish candles followed, confirming a shift in momentum to the downside. However, the retracement stalled upon entering a prior area of imbalance—highlighted here as a larger fair value gap (FVG) zone. This FVG zone acted as a significant demand area, with price reacting strongly upon entry. The zone is marked with a light blue shaded rectangle and aligns with a 1-hour bullish order block. Price created a swing low in this FVG area before forming higher lows, suggesting the possibility of a short-term reversal. Golden Pocket & Liquidity Sweep: A key zone of interest is the "Golden Pocket downtrend" area, which is derived from the 0.618–0.65 Fibonacci retracement levels of the last impulse down. Price previously respected this zone, leading to a rejection and continuation lower. This makes it a notable supply area. Price may revisit this zone as a target or potential reaction point on the next bullish leg. Note how the initial reaction from the FVG brought the market back into a smaller 1H FVG, situated just beneath the 0.5 retracement level. The internal structure within this zone supports a bullish outlook due to the formation of a higher low followed by a bullish engulfing candle. Fibonacci Confluence & Execution Levels: The 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level of the recent move aligns closely with the midpoint of the bullish FVG, providing confluence for a potential re-entry or continuation point. This level is annotated on the chart and highlighted with a horizontal line labeled "0.618 - Entry." This suggests it may act as a magnet for price before further continuation to the upside. The 0.786 retracement level, also plotted on the chart, indicates the deeper end of the retracement spectrum and lies just above a major structural low. This region, though aggressive, would represent a final line of defense for bullish continuation. Projection and Price Path: Based on the current structure and bullish reaction from the FVG zone, a potential price path is drawn on the chart. It suggests one more liquidity grab into the FVG area followed by an impulsive move to the upside. The blue projection line outlines a potential retracement to fill the nearby FVG (which remains partially unmitigated), followed by a resumption of bullish momentum that targets a revisit to the previous high area around 19,875. Additional Notes: * Multiple FVGs are actively interacting in this region, giving layered confluence for demand zones. * The reaction from the FVG zone is coupled with a bullish engulfing pattern on the 1-hour timeframe, signaling aggressive buying. * Price remains above the internal bullish structure despite the earlier rejection from the Golden Pocket area. Conclusion: The chart setup represents a textbook example of FVG demand zone reaction, supported by Fibonacci confluence and market structure shifts. As price consolidates above this key FVG, a continuation to the upside becomes a strong probability if the internal structure remains intact. Traders should monitor price behavior on lower timeframes as it interacts with the 0.618 and FVG zones for confirmation of bullish continuation.
This chart showcases a massive 39-year consolidation range in NZDJPY, spanning from 1986 to 2025, with no confirmed breakout or breakdown throughout this entire period. The pair remains range-bound, signaling long-term indecision. Currently, we are preparing for short-side trades based on a key technical clue: The latest monthly candle wicked above resistance, sweeping liquidity before closing lower — a classic liquidity grab or false breakout setup, indicating a potential reversal within the range. Trade Plan: Entry 1: 89.364 Entry 2 (Add more lots if price rises): 93.351 Stop Loss for both entries: 95.967 Our targets remain: Take Profit 1: 70.220 Take Profit 2: 42.516 This setup is aiming for a 5,149 pip move (~55% drop), aligned with the historical range-bound behavior.
? Chart Overview: Current Price: ₹1,530.20 Resistance Zone (rejected recently): ₹1,738.60 Support Zones: Immediate: ₹1,542.35 (now broken intraday) Stronger: ₹1,196.90 Recent Candle: Strong bearish candle (-3.85%) after touching the resistance ? Technical Analysis: Failed Breakout: Price touched ₹1,738 and sharply sold off — bearish rejection at supply. Today's candle is a strong red bar, implying profit booking or reversal pressure. Price Zone Reaction: Now sitting slightly below the ₹1,542 zone which was a previous resistance turned potential support. If this doesn’t hold, we may see price drift toward ₹1,400–1,300 levels. Volume Spike: Recent breakout occurred with high volume, indicating strong interest. But current drop needs watching — is it healthy pullback or reversal? ✅ Trade Strategy Not a Buy Right Now. Wait for Setup Confirmation. Instead: ? Option 1: If Market Pulls Back Further Buy near ₹1,450–₹1,480 zone (lower wick support area if it forms) Stop-Loss: ₹1,395 Target 1: ₹1,542 (retest) Target 2: ₹1,700–₹1,738 Target 3: ₹2,090 (long-term resistance) ? Option 2: If Price Reclaims ₹1,550+ With Strength Buy on Break and Hold above ₹1,560 Indicates strength returning after dip. Stop-Loss: ₹1,490 Target 1: ₹1,700 Target 2: ₹1,738 Target 3: ₹2,090 ? Avoid if: Price sustains below ₹1,480 on closing basis. No bullish candles or volume spike to support rebound.
+.5SD level as support and looking for continuation higher (in the Asia High direction)
Hi, One good way to prepare publications and validate that everything will be OK is to make a draft with a private script first. Contrary to public scripts, private scripts are not moderated and you can edit their title and description, so they can be used to test things. Once your private script's description and chart are the way you want them, you can copy the tagged description text in a new public script's description. When your public script is published, you can then delete the draft private script. That's how we work for our own publications. By sending us a link to your private publication, you can have us vet it if you are unsure. While we will not be doing
Kraken has announced the completion of its acquisition of U.S.-based retail futures trading platform NinjaTrader, marking a significant step toward building an all-asset, institutional-grade trading platform. The deal expands Kraken’s presence from crypto into traditional financial markets, unifying access to both asset classes under one ecosystem. With the integration, Kraken users will soon be able […]
Apple has changed its App Store rules in the U.S. to let apps link users to their own websites so they can buy subscriptions or other digital goods. This change comes after a U.S. court ruled in favor of Epic Games in a case against the iPhone maker, ordering the latter not to prohibit apps […]
Erster Hinweis auf eine genaues Erscheinungsdatum Hollow Knight: Silksong kann ab September 2025 in einem australischen Museum angespielt werden. Obwohl es sich bei dem Metroidvania aus dem Hause Team Cherry um eines der weltweit am meisten erwarteten Spiele handelt, gibt es nur wenige Informationen zum Entwicklungsstand des Spiels. Während der Nintendo Direct zur Switch …