From a technical perspective, the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) is already flashing slightly oversold conditions and warrants some caution for bearish traders. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for some near-term consolidation or a modest bounce before positioning for an extension of the USD/JPY pair's well-established downtrend witnessed over the past three months or so. In the meantime, attempted recovery might now confront some resistance near the 141.60-141.65 region. This is followed by the 142.00 round figure and the 142.40-142.45 hurdle, above which a fresh bout of a short-covering move could lift the USD/JPY pair to the 143.00 mark en route to the 143.25-143.30 zone. Any further move up, however, might still be seen as a selling opportunity. On the flip side, a sustained break and acceptance below the 141.00 mark could be seen as a fresh trigger for bearish traders and makes the USD/JPY pair vulnerable. The subsequent downfall below the 140.45-140.40 intermediate support might expose the 140.00 psychological mark. The downward trajectory could extend to the 2024 yearly swing low, around the 139.60-139.55 region.
These POIs were marked last week, Now price is in sell POI, we will enter short after sell confirmation,
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The USDX shows clearly we should be cautious in selling USD, and this applies across the board. Based on channel and the extreme case we are in, we can bounced back ttowards 101.20-101.70 area in the near term. Strategy BUY @ 97.80 - 98.20 and take proft in stages 1. @ 100.37 and 2. 101.57.
✅ XAUUSD H4 Outlook + Key Levels – April 21, 2025 ? Market Context & Trend After a powerful continuation post-holiday, Gold smashed through the previous ATH and is now trading in a vertical, parabolic leg — with minimal structure below and zero resistance above. ? Middle East tension + macro safe-haven flows = strong fuel for this spike. But we’re now in a price zone where traps and liquidation are very likely. ? Trend: • H4: Strong bullish BOSs since April 10 • No valid H4 CHoCH yet — structure remains bullish • Price is deep inside unmitigated premium, with signs of slowing momentum intraday ? Key Levels ABOVE Price Type Zone Notes ? Premium Sweep Zone 3395–3405 Key area around ATH for possible fakeout/sell trap setups — watch for M5/M15 CHoCH or BOS here ? Ultimate Spike Zone 3415–3425 High-impact inefficiency from lower timeframes + round number zone – ideal for stop hunts ? Extreme Spike Risk 3435–3455 No structure here — only if geopolitical tensions worsen ? Key Levels BELOW Price Type Zone Notes ? Intraday Buy Zone 3333–3340 Minor FVG + OB zone – valid only for scalps or continuation if PA confirms ? HTF Demand 3284–3288 Strong OB + FVG + clean H4 CHoCH base – valid for swing longs if dump occurs ⚓️ Institutional Support 3220–3235 Last clean unmitigated H4 demand + equilibrium from macro breakout zone ? Trading Considerations ? SELL setups only valid with clear bearish confirmation (M5/M15 CHoCH + momentum shift) inside the 3395–3405 zone. No blind shorts — the trend is still active. ? BUY setups are cleaner from 3284+ or deeper — chasing now is extremely risky unless price builds structure above 3400. ? A fast spike followed by breakdown could signal a swing reversal from this premium zone. ? H4 Bias: Cautiously Bullish — structure is clean, but price is hyperextended. Best setups will come after liquidity is taken.
The index is trading below the EMA200 and EMA50 on the four-hour timeframe and is trading in its descending channel. If the index moves down towards the specified demand zone, one can look for the next Nasdaq long positions with a good risk-reward ratio. Economists remain divided over whether President Donald Trump’s tariff policies are weakening the economy enough to trigger a recession. Some believe the possibility of a recession is significant, citing the rising costs of tariffs that are burdening both businesses and consumers. Others argue that the U.S. economy is strong enough to weather the trade war without falling into recession, pointing to resilient employment levels and consumer spending. Forecasting experts also express differing views regarding the risk that Trump’s tariff campaign could tip the economy into a downturn. A Wall Street Journal survey conducted in April among 57 economists revealed that, on average, participants estimated a 45% chance of a recession occurring within the next 12 months—up from just 20% in the January survey. The economic outlook took a notable downturn in February, when Trump began announcing tariffs against key U.S. trading partners. Many forecasters, who had expected a “soft landing” from post-pandemic inflation, are now preparing for a possible recession, as these tariffs and other economic barriers are forcing both households and businesses to tighten spending. A separate survey of financial professionals working with businesses found that many companies have recently faced greater difficulty in collecting payments from clients, indicating growing financial strain among key economic players. The Credit Managers’ Index, overseen by the National Association of Credit Management and monitored by economist Chris Kuehl, still showed growth in March, though at a slower pace than before. On the more optimistic side is Allen Sinai from Decision Economics, who assigns only a 20% probability to a recession within the next year. Although this is an increase from his January estimate of 10%, he still considers it an unlikely scenario. Sinai’s primary reason for optimism is the strength of the labor market, which has remained stable since recovering from the massive layoffs during the COVID-19 lockdowns. March’s unemployment rate was 4.2%—close to historic lows—and not indicative of an economy in recession. One major point of disagreement between recession pessimists and optimists lies in the interpretation of consumer sentiment data. Surveys have shown that people are increasingly worried about inflation, the job market, and their personal finances. If such concerns lead to more cautious consumer spending, it could weigh heavily on the overall economy. The upcoming week is expected to begin quietly in terms of economic data releases, particularly due to global markets being closed on Monday in observance of Easter. However, midweek brings key reports that could significantly influence market expectations. On Wednesday, the preliminary S&P Global composite purchasing managers’ index for April and March new home sales figures are due. Thursday will feature a packed slate of indicators, including durable goods orders, jobless claims, existing home sales, and the final reading of the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index. Alongside the data releases, investors will closely monitor remarks from Federal Reserve officials. Following Jerome Powell’s firm stance last week, upcoming speeches by Kashkari, Goolsbee, and Harker could shape or reinforce market expectations regarding the Fed’s future policy path. Meanwhile, Apple is grappling with mounting challenges in the global marketplace. In China, the company has lost a significant portion of its market share, with sales declining by 9%, while Huawei’s sales have grown by 10%, and Xiaomi now holds the top spot with an 18.6% market share. These shifts reflect a notable pivot in Chinese consumer preferences toward domestic brands. Furthermore, U.S.-imposed tariffs on Chinese goods have put additional pressure on Apple’s profit margins in its home market, placing the company in a tough position.
Analysis done directly on the chart What's the last game of patience you have played? Comment down below Not financial advice, DYOR. Market Flow Strategy Mister Y
Analysis done directly on the chart Make sure to stay up to date to macroeconomic events gold keeps making new ATHs, rapid weakening of dollar. Not financial advice, DYOR. Market Flow Strategy Mister Y
OANDA:EURCAD is approaching a key resistance level, marked by significant selling pressure. This area has historically acted as a key supply zone, increasing the likelihood of a bearish reaction if sellers step in again. The current market structure suggests that if the price confirms a rejection from this resistance level, there is a high probability of a downward move. I anticipate that if rejection occurs, the market may head lower toward the 1.57500 level, which serves as a logical target within the current market structure. However, a break above this resistance would invalidate the bearish bias and could lead to further upside. This setup reflects the potential for a retracement after an impulsive move, supported by the confluence of previous price behavior and the current structure. If you agree with this analysis or have additional insights, feel free to share your thoughts in the comments!
Bitcoin is above the EMA50 and EMA200 on the four-hour timeframe and has broken out of its descending channel. The continuation of Bitcoin’s upward trend will depend on maintaining the drawn upward trend line. A valid break of this trend line will cause Bitcoin’s price to correct to the 80,000 range. It should be noted that there is a possibility of heavy fluctuations and shadows due to the movement of whales in the market and compliance with capital management in the cryptocurrency market will be more important. If the downward trend continues, we can buy within the demand range. Following the announcement of new trade tariffs by the United States, Bitcoin experienced a 16.7% drop in price. However, it partially recovered from its 26.7% plunge. The total global cryptocurrency market capitalization has now reached $2.74 trillion, marking a 1.71% increase compared to the previous day. Over the past 24 hours, the total crypto market trading volume hit $60.7 billion, reflecting a 32.28% rise. Within this, DeFi transactions account for $5.25 billion, making up 8.65% of the total 24-hour market volume. Meanwhile, stablecoins have dominated trading activity with $55.84 billion in volume, representing 92% of the total market volume for the day. When comparing Bitcoin’s performance to other major assets, gold leads with a 12.9% gain. In contrast, both silver and the U.S. Dollar Index saw a 4.8% decline. The S&P 500 fell by 13.8%, while the Nasdaq dropped 17.5%. Despite its volatility, Bitcoin sits between oil and the Nasdaq in performance, showing signs of partial recovery. However, its behavior still diverges from that of traditional safe-haven assets like gold. On the political front, Hong Joon-pyo, a presidential candidate from South Korea’s conservative party, pledged that if elected, he would implement reforms in blockchain and cryptocurrency regulations. He also promised to integrate blockchain technology into public sector and administrative services. Additionally, Hong plans to invest at least 50 trillion Korean won (approximately $35.1 billion) over the next five years in research and development across artificial intelligence, quantum technology, and room-temperature superconductors. These initiatives are part of his broader strategy focused on growth driven by emerging technologies. In Q1 2025, publicly traded companies collectively acquired 95,431 bitcoins, bringing their total holdings to 688,000 BTC. This amount represents 3.28% of Bitcoin’s fixed supply of 21 million coins. The Coinbase Premium Index, which tracks the difference in Bitcoin demand between U.S. markets and global exchanges, has shown reduced volatility since March 2024. It appears to be forming a pattern often seen before bullish market trends. Robert Kiyosaki, renowned entrepreneur and author of the best-selling book Rich Dad Poor Dad, has forecasted that Bitcoin’s price could rise to between $180,000 and $200,000 by the end of 2025. Kiyosaki has long been an outspoken supporter of Bitcoin, portraying it as a safe hedge against inflation and economic instability.