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Multi-Timeframe Market Structure Analysis: Understanding Resistance and Support Levels H4 Timeframe Analysis: Key Resistance & Support Levels The price has broken the previous resistance, forming a new high and establishing a fresh resistance level. The previous support remains intact and has been tested once, showing its strength. Currently, the price appears to be in a pullback phase, but the depth of the retracement is uncertain. Traders should observe price action carefully to determine the next potential move. H1 Timeframe Analysis: Trend Continuation or Reversal? After breaking the H4 resistance, the H1 timeframe formed a higher high (HH) and a higher low (HL). The price is now pulling back toward the previous low. Although the H1 trendline has been breached, the price has not broken the key low, meaning the uptrend is still intact. Traders should focus on buy opportunities while remaining prepared for a potential sell-off if the low is broken. M15 Timeframe Analysis: Range Formation & Intraday Zones On the M15 timeframe, the price is moving within a range-bound pattern between resistance and support zones, which align with the H1 low. This suggests a short-term consolidation phase, where price is reacting within these levels. Intraday traders should look for breakout confirmations or range-trading setups before making trading decisions. Conclusion: Key Takeaways for Traders The overall trend remains bullish, with higher highs and higher lows across multiple timeframes. The current pullback has not yet broken the key low, meaning the uptrend is still valid. The H1 low is a crucial level—if it gets broken, it could signal a trend reversal. The M15 timeframe shows a range-bound market, providing potential short-term trading opportunities. ? Trading Recommendation: Stay cautious, watch for lower timeframe confirmations, and be prepared for potential breakouts or reversals based on price action.
AngloGold Ashanti (ANG) is an international gold producer that used to have operations in South Africa (the last of which, Mponeng, has now been sold) and still has assets in the DRC, Tanzania, Ghana, Mali, and the US. It had some significant problems in bringing the Obuasi mine into production and with the Tanzanian government over royalties. The company has 14 operational mines. AngloGold has retained its listing on the JSE despite having no South African assets. On 14th July 2021, the company announced that it had acquired Corvus Gold for R5,4bn in cash to extend its exploration in Nevada, USA. This is a relatively marginal, short-life (11 years) gold mine with rising costs, falling grades, and a volatile gold price. In its results for the year to 31st December 2024, the company reported a, "...nine-fold increase in 2024 free cash flow to $942m versus prior year; Adjusted EBITDA* +93% year-on-year and H2 dividend growth of 263% to 69 US cents per share; total cash costs* +4% for FY 2024, below group inflation." Headline earnings per share (HEPS) was 221c (US) compared with a loss of 11c in the previous period. Technically, the share has been rising since March 2024 in what looks like a volatile upward trend. On 10th September 2024, the company announced that it had made an offer for 83,6% of Centamin in Egypt for 0.06983 AngloGold shares and $0,125 in cash. The announcement caused ANG's share price to fall. This share remains a speculation on the gold price.
⭐️Fundamental Analysis Gold prices fell as investors booked profits ahead of the release of key US economic data, including PMI and PCE inflation. The Fed minutes did not change expectations for two rate cuts this year, but maintained a cautious stance. If the economy is strong and inflation is high, the Fed may not be in a hurry to ease policy. Gold prices may fluctuate in the short term following economic data, but are still supported by concerns about Trump's tax policies and Russia-Ukraine tensions. Despite the correction, gold remains a safe haven, and dips can be good buying opportunities. ⭐️Technical Analysis Gold price is heading towards 2920 and this area is the most important area for gold today. When breaking 2920, pay attention to the 2906 area for BUY signals and just wait for the test beats to sell around 2920 when this area is broken. When gold bounces from 2920, the market continues to want to increase. As long as there is any close above 2928, gold will soon regain the resistance level of 2944. Wish everyone the best trading strategy.
Discovery (DSY), developed and built by Adrian Gore over the past 25 years, offers the A/B income group of people a matrix of financial services that are inter-linked and cross-selling. Thus, a customer can begin with his/her medical aid and then add to that a variety of insurance products and now, most recently, personal banking products. Discovery's "Vitality" concept, which rewards clients for looking after their health in various ways, is extended to their driving record and a rewards system that ensures that there are attractive benefits for taking the full range of Discovery debit-order products. The Vitality platform tracks over 1000 customer activities and 50 biometrics a minute by using the Apple Watch in South Africa, the UK, China, Europe, and the US to ensure a process of healthy aging and retirement planning. Discovery's Chinese company, Ping An Health, in which Discovery has a 25% stake, saw membership grow by 60% over the year, and written premiums increased by 87% to $753m. Ping An is rapidly developing into Discovery's "Tencent." Discovery's move into banking offers existing clients a range of banking and credit card facilities. The banking license was approved in November 2017 and should significantly increase the profits being generated by the group in time. This is a disruptive development that will seriously shift the banking of A/B income group consumers away from existing banks. Discovery Bank's aim was to bring in 1000 new accounts per day from the end of August 2019. The company has seen a drop in car accident claims and medical insurance claims since the lockdown. This is a highly rated share despite the decline in its share price over the past two years. Discovery Bank has now reached 700 000 active clients and those clients are mostly of very high quality—but the progress has been relatively slow, partly because of the pandemic. Discovery shares remain expensive, but we regard this as one of the best shares for a private investor to hold for long-term growth. CEO, Adrian Gore, says, "I am a great believer that opportunities are not in good times,"—indicating his belief that growth comes from investing during difficult times such as South Africa is currently experiencing. Gore has also stated that the NHI, as it is proposed, is unaffordable for South Africa and that there are insufficient medical resources to implement it. Discovery became the first large, listed company to require all its staff to be vaccinated. On 20th June 2022, the bank reported that it had more than 1 million accounts and was taking on about 750 new accounts per day. In its results for the year to 30th June 2024, the company reported headline earnings per share (HEPS) up 14% and net asset value (NAV) up 16%. The company said, "Discovery Group achieved strong growth in the year ended 30 June 2024, with normalised operating profit up 17% to R11 604 million, headline earnings up 7% to R7 202 million, normalised headline earnings up 15% to R7 329 million, and core new business annualised premium income (API) up 18% to R26 667 million." In a trading statement for the six months to 31st December 2024, the company estimated that HEPS would increase by between 30% and 35%. Technically, the share has been in an upward trend since June 2024. We added it to the Winning Shares List (WSL) on 1st August 2024 at 14280c. It has subsequently moved up to 20936c. Due to the quality of its management and business model, we see this as a "must-have" share for any private investor's portfolio.
Glencore (GLN) describes itself as, "...one of the world’s largest global diversified natural resource companies and a major producer and marketer of more than 90 commodities." The group's operations comprise around 150 mining and metallurgical sites, oil production assets, and agricultural facilities. With a strong footprint in both established and emerging regions for natural resources, Glencore's industrial and marketing activities are supported by a global network of more than 90 offices located in over 50 countries. This is a massive, diversified mining house that markets its products worldwide and is involved in almost every mineable commodity that exists. This means that it is far less volatile and risky than other less diverse mining houses. Since the commodity cycle turned at the start of 2016, one of the greatest beneficiaries has been Glencore, particularly because it owned the world's richest source of cobalt in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). Cobalt is the metal used in the batteries required for the world's shift to electric motor vehicles. The problem is that the government in the DRC is in the process of declaring cobalt a "strategic mineral," which means much higher tax. The company is in the process of aggressively buying back GETTEX:2BN worth of its own shares. Glencore announced on 28th June 2021 that it had bought Anglo's 33% stake in Correjon Colliery in Columbia for $294m. Glencore clearly benefited from the war in Ukraine and the increase in coal prices, particularly. In a production update on the year to 31st December 2024, the company reported copper production down 6%, cobalt down 8%, zinc down 1%, nickel down 16%, and energy coal down 6%, while lead was up 2% and steel-making coal was up 165%. The company said, "2024 production volumes were delivered within our guidance ranges (unchanged from the beginning of the year), reflecting stronger second half (H2) performances across our key commodities. Copper production was 26kt higher in H2 (+6% vs H1), supported by Antapaccay's recovery from H1 geotechnical issues." Business Day (20-2-25) reported that Glencore had made a R30bn loss in the year to 31st December 2024, mainly because of lower prices for thermal coal. The price of nickel was down 22%, and cobalt fell 27%. The company has impaired its zinc and copper operations by almost R1,5bn. Earnings per share (EPS) fell to a loss of 13c (US) from a profit of 34c. The share made a convincing "descending double top," with the second top being slightly lower than the first in April 2024. Technically, this is a bad sign. The fact that the share could not rise above its January 2023 top at R120 was a major disappointment to the bulls. Commodities are in a downward trend, which has a direct impact on Glencore.
Metrofile (MFL) is a company that specializes in records storage and management, image processing, and backup. The company has been listed since 1995 and has a 57.4% Black ownership. The Mineworkers Investment Company owns 38.64% of the business, and Sanlam owns 5%. The company's record management division has 52 facilities at 27 locations with over 100,000 square meters of offices and warehousing. Housatonic Partners, a US company, made an offer to buy 100% of Metrofile for 330c per share but delayed the deal because of COVID-19. They stated that they would want to see the end-June 2020 results and "three months of normal trade" before reconsidering. Despite this, they have assured the company of their wish to continue with the possible acquisition of Metrofile. In its results for the year to 30th June 2024, the company reported revenue up 1% and headline earnings per share (HEPS) down 49%. The company said, "General market conditions were weak. Demand for cloud services remained strong and now contributes 32% (2023: 26%) of our digital services revenue." In a trading statement for the six months to 31st December 2024, the company estimated that HEPS would fall by between 23% and 46%. We see this as a good-quality small business that seems to be battling in a very tough economic climate. Technically, the share now looks to be in a new downward trend. On 5th September 2024, the company announced that its CEO, Pfungwa Serima, would resign with effect from 30th September 2024. He will be replaced by Thabo Seopa.
Financial markets became more concerned on Thursday due to concerns of new tariffs from the US and rising tensions between the US and Europe. In addition, the tense relationship between US President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy also makes the market uneasy, especially when there are signs that Donald Trump may be leaning towards Russian President Vladimir Putin in negotiations on the Russia-Ukraine war. Gold prices delivered in April maintain a strong upward trend, with the main motivation coming from safe haven demand and speculative cash flow. Currently, the important resistance level is identified at 2,973.4 USD/ounce - the highest level just established, followed by 2,985 USD/ounce. If gold surpasses $3,000/ounce, the upward momentum could continue. Resist : 2954 , 3000 Support : 2933 , 2900 , 2850
Mpact (MPT) is a large producer of paper and plastics packaging in Southern Africa. It recycles paper and cardboard and makes corrugated cardboard containers for a variety of industries, as well as polystyrene trays for the food industry. It has 20 manufacturing operations, with South African sales accounting for 86% of its business. It employs over 5,000 people. The business is impacted by the general level of consumer spending (which has been depressed because of COVID-19 and was improving at least until the advent of the Ukraine crisis) as well as weather considerations, which affect the demand for corrugated containers for fruit and other agricultural products, especially in the Cape. Like many businesses in the current environment, Mpact has been working to preserve cash, but it has benefited from a switch to local suppliers during the pandemic. In its results for the six months to 30th June 2024, the company reported revenue slightly down at R6,17bn and headline earnings per share (HEPS) of 144,6c compared with 211,6c in the previous period. The company's net asset value (NAV) increased 9% to 3411c per share. The company said, "The uncertain socio-political environment leading up to the national elections, high levels of loadshedding that continued until the end of March, high inflation and interest rates all contributed to weak consumer and business sentiment." In a trading statement for the year to 31st December 2024, the company estimated that HEPS for continuing operations would be between 23,3% and 30% lower than in the previous period. The company said, "The Group experienced a challenging trading environment for most of the 2024 financial year, despite positive sentiment emerging from the May 2024 election outcome and reduced loadshedding since April 2024." The share fell from a high of R51 in April 2016 to levels around R8 in March 2020 but has since recovered to 2812c. At the current level, it is on an earnings multiple of 6,31 - which looks cheap. Technically, the share looks like it may be entering a new upward trend, but it has been moving sideways since August 2022. On 1st August 2024, the company announced that it had sold its Versapak business for R267,7m. On 3rd February 2024, the company announced that its shares would be traded on the A2X with effect from 11th February 2024.
Sibanye (SSW) is a mining house that has been on a rapid acquisition trail, accumulating platinum and gold mines in South Africa and America and now broadening its scope to include base metals and minerals, especially so-called "green" metals. The company is run by Neal Froneman, who is well-known in the mining industry for his toughness, expertise, and experience. Froneman has said that he intends to retire in about 2024/5 but plans to double the size of the company before he does. Sibanye is also considering moving into the base minerals used in motor vehicle batteries, like vanadium, copper, nickel, and lithium. On 1st June 2021, the company announced a share buy-back program to repurchase up to 5% of its issued shares. On 3rd July 2024, Business Day reported that Sibanye had retrenched 11,000 workers over 18 months. In its results for the six months to 30th June 2024, the company reported headline earnings of R137m compared with R5,891m in the previous period. Lower commodity prices caused revenue to decline by 9%. The company said, "The Group maintained a sound financial position with undemanding balance sheet leverage of 1.43x net debt: adjusted EBITDA at 30 June 2024, well below our covenant levels." In an update for the 3 months to 30th September 2024, the company reported EBITDA up 9% and EBITDA from South African gold operations up 292%. The gold price in rands was up 24%. In a trading statement for the year to 31st December 2024, the company estimated that HEPS would be between 63c and 67c compared with 63c in the previous year. The company took an R8,8bn impairment loss on its PGM operations in the US, which is not reflected in HEPS. Technically, the share has been in a downward trend since March 2022, mainly because of falling commodity prices. On 13th February 2024, the company announced that CEO Neal Froneman would be retiring on 30th September 2025 and will be replaced by Richard Stewart.