Today's briefing: As expected, the price gapped up at Sunday's opening from panic buying after the weekend model runs turning colder, bullish momentum from Friday, and news of Friday's LNG nominations at all time records. Unfortunately this was not enough to keep the gains versus the bearish news of Monday morning. Troubles at Freeport LNG facility and Sabine pass reminded the market of the continued issues with LNG processing during bouts of cold weather, similar to last years issues. Something to think about if the freeze makes it down to the GOM end of week!!! Freeport continues to be problematic with its processing facilities, and it continues to be used as a good impetus for any profit taking when the time becomes convenient. The nature of Natural Gas trading is such that big swings in price are followed by any bit of news to the bullish or bearish side, so always be on the lookout for any news, what so ever, to move pricing in the opposite direction. Couple this decline in LNG daily exports with forward month backwardation, and a return to normalcy in front month pricing. Which we saw today. This week expect to see large range bound trading (20-30 cents/day) before the EIA report. The report will be the big news maker before the holiday weekend in the US. Expect a bit of profit taking before the week ends, for position closing for the long US weekend. I am hoping that with model runs continuing to see the end of January cold and with the NGI estimated 259BCF for the period ending January 10th, we will see price rebound to the $4.200 level before profit taking begins. If there are any surprises in the outlook for the cold to come and the report disappoints, then we could see pricing fall to lower support levels below the 20 SMA at $3.621 level. We have closed daily below the 20 SMA only two times since the contract rollover from October into November and this continues to be a good support level until it does not! But the hope follows that forecasts show enough frigid air over the United States for surpluses to the five-year average currently at more than 207 Bcf “to be completely wiped out and likely to flip to deficits after the next three EIA reports,” according to the forecasts. “As opposed to cold snaps in recent winters, which have been brief and bookended by mostly warm weather, January is shaping up to be a full month of colder-than-normal weather across key population centers,” Huenefeld said. This will be verified with continued cold model runs and a 250+BCF withdrawal. This will set up the price action back up to the $4.200 level, and possibly beyond. So, talking about beyond. As we look at the synoptic weather models, we look at modeling 3-6 weeks out. Up until late last week, the models were consistently showing the cold retreating back into northern Canada and the continuation of the Polar Vortex to relax to it's more circular pattern with the Northern Hemispheric winter weather season. The equatorial weather pulses, as telegraphed by the MJO, were also showing an injection of mild Pacific air into British Canada and the US Pacific North west. Which is common for a weak La NIna, which we are in. This was being modeled and seen for a warmer period from the end of January into the first 2-3 weeks of February. A general relaxation of the Polar Vortex, and the injection of mild Pacific air, was being accepted as a January thaw, typical of the winter season, and in a weakened La Nina state. Remember that institutional investors, who we are competing against, are looking at the same information. They will begin planning on trading this information 10 days before the event happening. This is common in the energy markets. Trade the news 10 days before the little fish hear anything about it. Then sell the news of rumors that the little fish are talking about. Remember I was discussing the Polar Vortex and the opening of Plaques and Corpus Christi two weeks before there was any news on the wires. We joked about a PoLAr VOrteX, but doesn't seem so funny when it actually happens and pays out two weeks later. Back to the weather. Last week, there were signs of another, 5th and 6th, elongated Polar Vortex, being seen in the long range model. Plus the EPO, a teleconnection that measures the pressure in the eastern Pacific ocean started to turn favorable. This is starting to show high pressure rebuilding over Alaska, which rotates clockwise and pulls air down from northern Canada and the Artic. Couple this with the Polar vortex splitting again in its elongated state. And now we are talking about another bout of cold artic air being injected into the US. Except we are seeing this shift westward over the highly populated centers of the US Midwest, as opposed to the US north east. I have attached some visuals which show the Polar Vortex the negative EPO in the models and an explanation of how they effect the weather. I will continue to monitor and update as they verify true or false. If they do, we can expect the Widow Maker contracts to bring life back to a bull market in NG. Now take that you B1t*H!!! This brings us to the second factor in pricing, storage - injection and withdrawal. The expectation is for the first trillion cubic foot withdrawal for any month. If the warmer weather verifies and the 1 TCF verifies, which is the base case scenario, industry experts estimate that at the end of withdrawal season, the last week in March. That NG storage will be somewhere in the 1700-1800 BCF. Which will be the second lowest in 30 years and 550 BCF versus last winter. This coupled with the fact that Corpus Christi LNG facility is expected to open two more trains before April and Plaques running at full capacity, this could add another 1 BCF/ in demand. But this is all a big if. But something i will be watching out for daily. I am non-committal about anything other than the next 5 days in the NG market. Which I see at higher prices than today. But I have and will be wrong, so do not take this as investment advice. Just where I see the upcoming fundamentals playing out. NG is the most volatile asset/commodity traded. So always expect a pullback on any bit of bad news after the price spikes, or pop up on any bit of good news after the price dumps. Has been and will always be the nature of NG. Again, why real time weather and industry news is so important. My next post will be on what and where to look for the fundamental news to front run these pops and dips. All of the news is behind paywalls. But I speak from experience that every dollar spent pays for itself and then some. In the meantime I will throw you some fish as I hopefully teach you to fish yourself. An educated informed trader/investor makes the market more transparent, predictable and profitable. So here's the new tagline. "Keep it burning boys!"
XRP is never been looking this good forever since I am watching it 2017 or so, However this year lots of fresh and old investors are lining up to buy XRP at still penny stock prices, If ripple manage to keep things interesting it might be a good contender to SWIFT, however I think SWIFT is not in the position to contest superiority, but instead to facilitated cross chain payments from all sources, so if we hear news from SWIFT wanting to add BTC, ETH, XRP (specially) it will be the signal to go long on XRP. I am calculating XRP to around $25 for this bull run, it will require an insane of market cap but I think is possible. The targets to watch out for is 1.70 (must buy more bags if it goes low again) for the mid term $8-$9 with a chance to correct to $4 and for the long term $20-25 and beyond.
The Nasdaq 100 Index is currently trading within a descending channel, indicating a downtrend. The current price is around $20,784.72, near the lower boundary of the channel. For the market to reverse, the price needs to break above the upper boundary of the channel, signaling a potential shift to an uptrend. ? What Needs to Happen for the Market to Go Up? 1️⃣ Break Above the Upper Boundary : A breakout above the upper boundary would suggest a bullish reversal. The first resistance level above the upper boundary is around $21,629. If the price clears this level, the next major resistance could be at $22,000. 2️⃣ Volume Confirmation : A strong buying volume should support any move above resistance to confirm the breakout. 3️⃣ Positive Catalysts : Favorable news or economic data could provide the needed push to break through the upper boundary. ⚠️ I f the Lower Boundary Breaks … If the price falls below the lower boundary, the next support level is near $20,383. If the price breaks through this, the next potential support is around $19,630. ? Key Takeaway : Watch for a breakout above the upper boundary, with $21,629 and $22,000 as potential resistance levels, or a breakdown below the lower boundary, with $20,383 and $19,630 as key support levels. Where do you think the market is headed? Share your thoughts!
CHARTS OF THE DAY ©Master of Elliott Wave: Hua (Shane) Cuong, CEWA-M (Master's Designation). The context suggests that we are inside a 4-grey wave, as the 3-grey wave ended at the high of 2,801.2. I see that the 4-grey wave is taking a long time, and is probably getting narrower as time goes on, as well as its subwaves have a lot of Three-waves, which directly suggests to me the idea of a Triangle forming (3-3-3-3-3 or ABCDE). A closer look suggests that the ((a))-navy to ((d))-navy wave is probably completed, and we are inside a ((e))-navy wave. It will continue to aim for the nearest target at 2,633.8 (Wave ((e))-navy = 0.618 x wave ((c))-navy - this is a fibonacci multiple ratio of subwaves in the triangle pattern). Wave ((e))-navy will develop as a Zigzag. So, in the coming time, gold may move up with wave 5-grey, but not yet, because it needs more time to complete this Triangle pattern. While the price must always remain lower than the high of 2,734.2 to maintain the short-term bearish view with the Triangle pattern.
Bitcoin has finished an inducement trade yesterday, and is reversing Asia session now. Targets for short term action are then retraction to neckline, tomorrow & day after 100000. Profitable Trading. =============================================== DISCLAIMER THIS IS NOT A TRADE IDEA. JUST AN OPINION ================================================
Gold (XAU/USD) 4H Chart: Highlighting key supply and demand zones for potential trade setups. Supply zones (red) act as resistance, while demand zones (green) provide support. Break of Structure (BOS) and Change of Character (CHoCH) mark critical shifts in market trends. Current price is testing a demand zone (2,657.20–2,648.93), with potential resistance at 2,704.57–2,723.17. Watch for reactions at these levels for possible bullish or bearish continuations.
Daily Analysis on XAUUSD Previously, we can observe an ascending channel up into our HTF OTE zone (2685-2696.4) before a massive sell down, allowing sell opportunities of over 300pips! By observing our H4 charts, price is currently on its retracement up where we can look for several potential outcomes (1) Price might retrace up to 2677, 2682, 2686-26289 before another massive dump. Note that these price points are to be monitored and confirmed with LTF confirmations before selling. (2) Price can potentially hover around this current range and dump further. (3) Price can potentially bull through our listed sell zones, takes out the liquidity and psychological levels at 2700, hitting 2704 (H4 FVG + HTF SnR) before its actual massive dump. (4) Price can bull through and completely invalidates our analysis (1)-(3). If short is true, next target for gold would be 2646-2630s range, before any further downside. Let me know how you think and like if you agree! Stay tuned and follow me for more XAUUSD analysis, as we monitor the price actions together!
Sol next move towards 188 because of Fibonacci level breakout
nifty smallcap index..... is at confluence support of... 1.green horizontal support line 2. green trend line 3.50% fib.level expect good up move starting today
nifty midcap index..... is at confluence support of... 1.green horizontal support line 2. green trend line 3.50% fib.level expect good up move starting today