Through the ups and downs , all we see is BNB maybe one of strong crypto coin that still having pretty solid supporters. Now (Dec 25th 2024) we're still hovering near resistance level $700-$750. Look at XRP , BGB, and other coins that been through long long long time in sideways , we should suspect that BNB will soar high anytime soon! BNB $1,000 is real ?
Inverse H&S pattern on BTC 1 hr time frame. Looks SEC ETF news was strong enough to prompt a reversal . Long till 120K
SUI is showing promising signs of forming an ascending triangle pattern, a classic bullish technical formation that traders closely monitor for potential breakouts. This pattern emerges as the price continues to make higher lows, indicating growing buying pressure, while encountering resistance at a consistent horizontal level. The tightening price range suggests an impending decision point as bulls and bears battle for dominance. With trading volumes often playing a critical role in confirming the breakout, it’s essential to watch for a surge in activity near the resistance zone. If SUI successfully breaks above the resistance, it could signal a strong upward momentum, potentially taking the price to new highs. However, it’s important to remain cautious, as false breakouts can occur, and any sustained movement below the lower trendline could invalidate the pattern. Overall, the ascending triangle pattern reflects increasing investor confidence in SUI. Patience and disciplined risk management will be key for traders looking to capitalize on this setup. Keep an eye on key support and resistance levels, and prepare for potential volatility as the pattern approaches its apex!
The 50-day moving average (MA) (red line in the chart) is a widely used indicator that helps identify the trend direction and acts as a dynamic support or resistance level. Here is how it applies to the current chart: Current Overview: Support Role: The 50 MA is closely aligned with the green support area, reinforcing this level as a strong dynamic support. The price has historically respected the 50 MA as support, evidenced by previous bounces near this level. The upward slope of the 50 MA indicates that Bitcoin is still in a bullish trend on higher timeframes. The bullish structure remains intact as long as the price stays above the 50 MA. The convergence of the 50 MA with the green horizontal support area (~$92,500–$95,000) adds significant strength, making it a key level to monitor for a potential bounce. Bullish Case: If the price is above 50 MA, it could act as a launching pad for the next upward move. A bounce off this level could target the $102,500 or $110,000 levels. Bearish Case: A breakdown below the 50 MA and the green support area could signal a trend reversal or a deeper correction. The next support after this would be at $85,000–$90,000 or the lower range around $77,500. Key Points: The 50 MA is a crucial support level at the moment. Traders should closely monitor price action near this level. A strong bounce could confirm a bullish continuation, while a breakdown could indicate increased selling pressure. Let me know if you would like further clarification or additional analysis! Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your research and consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions. For updates on other coins or personalized insights, feel free to reach out via DM. DYOR, NFA @Peter_CSAdmin
Analysis, BTC, MMXM/BP/1H, I wait for a retracement then I Will buy!
- Arbitrum Daily Timeframe Analysis with Fundamental Analysis In addition to the pre-launch record of $4 billion in TVL , Arbitrum has a perfect future based on its data and activities ! - After the start and launch of the Arbitrum Nitro update, the price can increase by up to + $50 due to its scalability capabilities as well as the masterpiece architecture of the Nitro blockchain.
1. Introduction The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings are pivotal events that significantly impact global financial markets. Traders across asset classes closely monitor these meetings for insights into the Federal Reserve’s stance on monetary policy, interest rates, and economic outlook. In this article, we delve into the correlation between Bitcoin futures (BTC) and E-mini S&P 500 futures (ES) during FOMC meetings. Focusing on the window from one day prior to one day after each meeting, our findings reveal that BTC and ES exhibit a positive correlation 63% of the time. This relationship offers valuable insights for traders navigating these volatile periods. 2. The Significance of Correlations in Market Analysis Correlation is a vital tool in market analysis, representing the relationship between two assets. A positive correlation indicates that two assets move in the same direction, while a negative correlation implies they move in opposite directions. BTC and ES are particularly intriguing to study due to their distinct market segments—cryptocurrency and traditional equities. Observing how these two assets interact during FOMC meetings provides a window into macroeconomic forces that affect both markets. The key finding: BTC and ES are positively correlated 63% of the time around FOMC meetings. This suggests that, despite their differences, both markets often react similarly to macroeconomic developments during these critical periods. 3. Methodology and Data Overview To analyze the BTC-ES correlation, we focused on a specific timeframe: one day before to one day after each FOMC meeting. Daily closing prices for both assets were used to calculate correlations, providing a clear view of their relationship during these events. The analysis includes data from multiple FOMC meetings spanning several years. The accompanying charts—such as the correlation heatmap, table of BTC-ES correlations, and line chart—help visualize these findings, highlighting the periods of positive and negative correlation. https://www.tradingview.com/x/aFnXh9eI/ https://www.tradingview.com/x/MKWWrVJ4/ Contract Specifications: o E-mini S&P 500 Futures (ES): Contract Size: $50 x S&P 500 Index. Minimum Tick: 0.25 points, equivalent to $12.50. Initial Margin Requirement: Approximately $15,500 (subject to change). o Bitcoin Futures (BTC): Contract Size: 5 Bitcoin. Minimum Tick: $5 per Bitcoin, equivalent to $25 per tick. Initial Margin Requirement: Approximately $112,000 (subject to change). These specifications highlight the differences in notional value and margin requirements, underscoring the distinct characteristics of each contract. 4. Findings: BTC and ES Correlations During FOMC Meetings The analysis reveals several noteworthy trends: Positive Correlations (63% of the time): During these periods, BTC and ES tend to move in the same direction, reflecting shared sensitivity to macroeconomic themes such as interest rate adjustments or economic projections. Negative Correlations: These occur sporadically, suggesting that, in certain scenarios, BTC and ES respond differently to FOMC announcements. 5. Interpretation: Why Do BTC and ES Correlate? The observed correlation between Bitcoin futures (BTC) and E-mini S&P 500 futures (ES) around FOMC meetings can be attributed to several factors: Macro Sensitivity: Both BTC and ES are heavily influenced by macroeconomic variables such as interest rate decisions, inflation expectations, and liquidity changes. The FOMC meetings, being central to these narratives, often create synchronized market reactions. Institutional Adoption: The increasing participation of institutional investors in Bitcoin trading aligns its performance more closely with traditional risk assets like equities. This is evident during FOMC events, where institutional sentiment towards risk assets tends to align. Market Liquidity: FOMC meetings often drive liquidity shifts across asset classes. This can lead to aligned movement in BTC and ES as traders adjust their portfolios in response to policy announcements. This correlation provides traders with actionable insights into how these assets might react during future FOMC windows. 6. Forward-Looking Implications Understanding the historical correlation between BTC and ES during FOMC meetings offers a strategic edge for traders: Hedging Opportunities: Traders can use the BTC-ES relationship to construct hedging strategies, such as using one asset to offset potential adverse moves in the other. Volatility Exploitation: Positive correlation periods may signal opportunities for trend-following strategies, while negative correlation phases could favor pairs trading strategies. Risk-On/Risk-Off Cues: The alignment or divergence of BTC and ES can act as a barometer for market-wide sentiment, aiding decision-making in other correlated assets. Future FOMC events could present similar dynamics, and traders can leverage this data to refine their approach. 7. Risk Management Considerations While correlations provide valuable insights, they are not guaranteed to persist. Effective risk management is crucial, particularly during volatile periods like FOMC meetings: Stop-Loss Orders: Ensure every trade is equipped with a stop-loss to cap potential losses. Position Sizing: Adjust position sizes based on volatility and margin requirements for BTC and ES. Diversification: Avoid over-concentration in highly correlated assets to reduce portfolio risk. Monitoring Correlations: Regularly assess whether the BTC-ES correlation holds true during future events, as changing market conditions could alter these relationships. A disciplined approach to risk management enhances the probability of navigating FOMC volatility successfully. 8. Conclusion The correlation between Bitcoin futures (BTC) and E-mini S&P 500 futures (ES) around FOMC meetings highlights the interconnected nature of modern financial markets. With 63% of these events showing positive correlation, traders can glean actionable insights into how these assets react to macroeconomic shifts. While the relationship between BTC and ES may fluctuate, understanding its drivers and implications equips traders with tools to navigate market volatility effectively. By combining historical analysis with proactive risk management, traders can make informed decisions during future FOMC windows. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: http://www.tradingview.com/cme/ - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
Entry SL = Candle open + ATR14 * 1 (I forgot it is supposed to be 2*...) Bet size is 1/2 kelly f*portfolio = (USD 8163/2) This trade was initiated upon observing greater force across RUT, SPX, and RSP, as they reversed from key levels and started making higher highs and higher lows. Sector: Banking, Finance Consistent sales and EPS growth over the past eight quarters. ADR 9.07% Short interest: 8.01% Does it respect the H1 100SMA (Min 3Months): Yes Is it a Hype Thematic (AI, Solar): With Trump coming into office in 2025, there is an expectation of looser regulations in banking and finance. The company sees its TAM growing due to high inflation and interest rates, which have caused a notable spike in the number of people living paycheck to paycheck. https://seekingalpha.com/article/4745475-dave-stock-old-school-payday-lender-in-disguise-reasonably-valued Insider filings we see Preston Dan the director in Nov selling stocks, according to the SEC 100SMA StrongWeak Bounce ? (0.5R) v1.0 Trading risk at 0.5R as we are testing this strategy This trade model is based on us riding the 100SMA trend waves of the strongest and weakest companies. It only executes well when greater force (RUT & SPX) is trending. Entries are at greater force key levels when it is consolidating. When greater force is taking off it is too late. Entry Within Stdev 100 zone SL = ATR14 * 2 (Run full course no early exits) Trailing stop (Previous Day Low or high) Price launch off (D1) D2 Closes D3 Move SL to D2 Low
Likely up move in the markets in January with TSLA very bullish.
I anticipate further upside in BTCUSD based on strong support levels around the current price. The market shows signs of recovery after recent consolidation. My plan is to go long with a target price of $100,000, while setting a strict stop-loss just below $96,000 to manage risk. This trade is based on a combination of technical indicators, including a rising RSI and confirmation of the uptrend on the daily chart. Feel free to share your thoughts!