Bald ist wieder der Höhepunkt der „Fünften Jahreszeit“: Am kommenden Montag ist schon wieder Rosenmontag. Wo hat Fasching beziehungsweise Karneval oder auch Fastnacht eigentlich seinen Ursprung? Welche Bedeutung hat es? Und was ist denn jetzt der richtige Name: Fasching oder Karneval?
I have read different speculations on what might happen to the price of Bitcoin if the stock market were to crash. I am going to answer this quite definitively using statistics, correlations, and fundamental explanations of events from market history. This post will not speculate on the current nor future price movements of Bitcoin and Stocks. I will be using the Tradingview Bitcoin Index INDEX:BTCUSD and the S&P500 Index ETF AMEX:SPY What is a "Crash?" I use a common definition of a stock market "crash" as a short or long duration negative performance of -30% or more. I distinguish this from "correction" which I define as a -5% to -10% movement which are more common. I'll look at the true crashes but also include significant corrections for comparison. Time Range I chose the time range from 2014 to present for this study. I am taking the opinion that Bitcoin did not reach a comparable level of maturity nor public awareness until after the 2013 bull cycle. Also the 2013 Stock Market was ridiculously bullish. How Often Do Bad Weeks Line Up? I took particularly down weeks for Stocks, -2.5% or more, and compared them to the same week for Bitcoin. 2 out of 3 Weeks where the stock market was down big... Bitcoin was down big. Furthermore, the average magnitude of Bitcoin's down move was more than twice that of Stocks. https://www.tradingview.com/x/zzeuxYou/ How Correlated is Bitcoin to Stocks? The Correlation Coefficient measure the way in which two instruments move together. A value 1.0 means that they move identically up and down while a value of -1.0 means they move exactly opposite. The correlation of Bitcoin to Stocks varies from week to week. However, Bitcoin is far moreso and more often positively correlated to Stocks. https://www.tradingview.com/x/DV3WT7AL/ At the extreme Bitcoin is more highly correlated to Stocks than it is ever negatively correlated (0.93 versus -0.76) Bitcoin is move often positively correlated to stocks. 75% of weeks Bitcoin and Stocks are positively correlated 0.70 is considered "high correlation" and 33% of weeks exhibit high correlation On the contrary, less than 2% of weeks are ever highly negatively correlated Historical Crashes Now we will go into some narratives around historic events surrounding large down moves in Stocks and how Bitcoin reacted. 2021 https://www.tradingview.com/x/K8v1vQCB/ 2021 was a bad year for both Stocks and Bitcoin. The decline of Bitcoin began prior to the then All Time High of Stocks but both decidedly went through a bear market together. Of note; while Stocks declined -27.47% from the high to low over that same period Bitcoin declined -61.83%. COVID https://www.tradingview.com/x/APhrEniw/ COVID was a major but short "risk-off" event in both markets. Stocks declined -35.45% from prior high to subsequent low and Bitcoin declined -63.09% from its respective high and low. 2018 https://www.tradingview.com/x/FGBesGHY/ Going back further in time we can look a less severe Stocks declines in 2018. The 2018 market narrative was dominated by rate decisions with the Fed raising rates 4 times that year. The initial correction at the beginning of the year happened within Bitcoin's decline from its 2017 All Time High. Within this context while Stocks gave up -11.76% Bitcoin fell by more than half. Later in the year as Bitcoin began to trade in a very tight range Stocks had a -20.47% decline. While the two did not coincide in their start times it is within the context of the longer Stocks crash that Bitcoin broke lower for another -53.62% Conclusion and Analysis I want to note here that Bitcoin was created AFTER "the big one" of 2008. There has never in Bitcoin's history been a true multi-year bear market for Stocks to compare. However, we have ample evidence to suggest that given a crash in Stocks it is a near certainty that Bitcoin will decline as well to a magnitude of double or more. This happens because the market as a whole views Bitcoin as a risk asset with much higher volatility than Stocks as a whole. When there is ample liquidity and positive sentiment they both perform well. When liquidity is constrained and there is negative sentiment they both perform poorly. Liquidity and speculation are what drive them both. This connection has not changed in recent times and has likely increased due to the introduction of the Bitcoin ETF and publicly traded companies exposing their share prices to the volatility of Bitcoin. Trade wisely.
I created a Entery and sl point according to 4 hr if you guys have knowlegde about technical you can easily get more rr in smallar Timeframe
The chart above explains. This is a follow-up to the previous idea (deleted). This would be deleted as well. My charts are straightforward. So there isn't much to talk about. But TV insist that I write something or else it would not publish. TV also offers me many 'trading tools' - of course, I have to pay. But the thing is that I have no use for such tools. So in the end, I use it for FREE Thank you TV.
Heavy handle here at $2886.3. Upon London interactions we should be seeing a sharp movement straight back into $2907 from there… LFG ?
With liqudation sweeps, media, SEC Case, #XRPArmy we have the advantage of joining the elite. If you know what your looking for, look at the last few patterns, be well. XRP Army, will be the most humbled, start gathering more while it this low, even if it goes down. highly weekly investment for 10 years
Hello everyone ?♂️ SELL Signal for EUR/USD • Entry Price: 1.04649 • Stop Loss: 1.05403 • Take Profit: 1.03532 • Timeframe: 4H (4 hours) Analysis • The price has broken below an ascending channel, indicating a possible bearish trend. • If the price continues to drop, it may reach 1.03532 as the target. • The risk/reward ratio looks favorable. Note: Always follow proper risk management as market conditions can be volatile.
Looking for gu to take out yesterdays London and newyork buys. Lets see how it play out 0.5% risk
Again the trend line has been honoured. I believe it still needs to be retested at least one more time before breaking downwards. Have had a lot off nice swings off it already.
.Sentiments are 96% LONG .Divergence occurs in 1 hr .Wait for break last LH