After big Down again sell off start but need pull back small so setup ready just waiting for price moments.
Key Observations From the OANDA:XAUUSD COT Data Non-commercial traders hold 324,333 long positions vs 73,451 short positions, showing strong bullish sentiment. Spreads: Significant spread positions (332,329 contracts) suggest hedging strategies, but the longs clearly dominate. Let’s break down this COT data and identify actionable insights for your XAU/USD trading strategy. Here's my interpretation: ________________________________________ 1. Open Interest Analysis Total open interest is 851,437 contracts, which reflects the market's overall participation. A change of 24,835 contracts from 03/25/25 suggests increased market activity and potential volatility. This surge might indicate that traders are repositioning ahead of significant events, which could align with your BBMA setups. ________________________________________ 2. Non-Commercial Positions (Speculators) Long: 324,333 | Short: 73,451 | Spreads: 332,329 Speculators hold significantly more long positions compared to short positions, indicating bullish sentiment. The large number of spread positions (332,329 contracts) reflects hedging or complex strategies. This group expects potential movement but is balancing risks. ________________________________________ 3. Commercial Positions (Hedgers) Long: 136,052 | Short: 412,893 Hedgers (like producers or processors) are heavily short, suggesting that they are locking in current prices to mitigate risk if gold prices fall. This aligns with bearish sentiment from the commercial side. ________________________________________ 4. Changes in Positions Non-Commercial: Slight decrease in long positions (-391 contracts), but a notable increase in short positions (+7,312 contracts). This suggests speculators are preparing for possible downside risks. Commercial: Both long (-18,799) and short (-28,736) positions decreased. This may indicate some unwinding of hedging activity. ________________________________________ 5. Percent of Open Interest Non-commercial positions account for 38.1% long and 8.6% short, showing speculative dominance on the bullish side. Commercial traders hold 48.5% short, reinforcing bearish sentiment. ________________________________________ 6. Integration Into My Strategy Bullish Sentiment (Non-Commercials): Combine this with your BBMA analysis: Check for EMA50 support and Middle BB interaction near key Fibonacci retracement levels (e.g., 61.8% or 50%). Look for strong MA5/10 crossing validation for buy setups. Bearish Sentiment (Commercials): Use this as confirmation for sell setups at confluence zones: Price rejection near EMA50 resistance or oversold conditions breaking downward through Middle BB. Validate sentiment shifts with FS movement and high confluence. Manage Volatility: With open interest increasing, consider tighter stop-loss placements and trailing stops to protect against sudden reversals. TF Daily Outlook Bullish - Current at 0.382 (3039.82) from swing price 2832.72 to 3167.83 (ATH) - 3039.82 at potential daily support level - Price has stop at mid bb level of FR 0.382 0.5: 3000.27 0.618: 2960.73 (strong support) TFH4 Outlook bearish - Current at 0.786 (3035.50) from swing 4 to 5 - Level 0.786 potential reversal from bullish to bearish for mid term - FE reach level 100% (3023.13) equal leg 0.382: Potential EMA Zone 0.5: Potential mid-bb + MAH Zone TFH1 Outlook Bullish for H4 Retracement Fibo Extension reach level 100% (3023.13) equal leg from the ATH CSE SELL form (3015.65) follow TPW SELL - TFD at 0.382 (3039.82) from swing price 2832.72 to 3167.83 (ATH) - 3039.82 at potential daily support level HIGH RISK SELL SETUP ENTRY POINT: FR 0.382 (3061.62) STOP LOSS: ABOVE FR 0.786 (3110.85) TAKE PROFIT: FR EXT 1.618 (2940.80) TAYOR
Hey, Trump’s April 2025 tariffs triggered a global market crash, with the Dow plunging and the Nasdaq entering a bear market. China retaliated, raising recession fears. News warns of rising unemployment, inflation, and a major economic slowdown. So what does this mean for us as traders and investors? Volatility equals opportunity. The S&P 500 is approaching a strong demand zone and trendline. I’m not a fan of trying to catch the exact bottom — just have a consistent plan to scale in, buy once at the zone or do it in chunks. But with prices this low, it’s a great time to consider adding more. Data shows, every major crash has rebounded sooner than expected for the past 100 years. Great opportunities where fear makes people miss it. Kind regards, Max
well we will see if this plays out like this it looks like this could build up like I drew it maybe some of you can catch these waves by end of april gold price would be around new ath s 3300
I think the price is going to go from here to $82000 and then to $85000. There's liquidity at the $85,000 level, so I expect it to take the liquidity there and try the $82,500s again. But if it doesn't return from $85,000 and breaks directly, it may work as in option 2. this isn't investment advice.
Trading BJ to the Fib extenction around 127 so a $12 potential gain.
OANDA:XAUUSD ,No doubt Gold is supreme leader of forex ,commodities market , mega bullish in last 1 decade , for short and mid term , might be possible some correction , as mentioned in chart , 3023$ is a critical point , breakout of this point can lead gold to minimum 2950$ support or more .Technical analysis shows gold price still in bullish channel , 2 touches on upside and 2 on downside trendline done , might be possible gold can shoot up for 3rd touch of upper trendline , double bottom or more rejection candles on support will confirm upside move . i will suggest to look and analyse market on monday open and trade after confirmation . https://www.tradingview.com/x/WqInZ8cP/
Recently, the changes in the global economic landscape, geopolitical uncertainties, combined with the fluctuations in US tariff policies and key economic data, have significantly affected the Australian Dollar to US Dollar (AUD/USD) exchange rate, causing substantial fluctuations in it. The following analyzes its trends from multiple aspects. 1. Main Influencing Factors 1.1 US Tariff Policies On April 2nd, Trump announced the imposition of a "minimum baseline tariff" on trading partners. Although there have been no immediate adjustments targeting Australia for now, this move has disrupted the global trade order. As a resource-exporting country, Australia's export industry may be indirectly impacted. If the US imposes tariffs on Australia in the future, the export costs of Australia will rise, its economy will be hit, the expectations for the Australian dollar will decrease, and AUD/USD will decline. 1.2 Non-farm Payroll Data The data released on April 4th showed that the number of new non-farm jobs in the US in March far exceeded expectations, the unemployment rate increased slightly, and the hourly wage rose, causing the US dollar to increase slightly. Generally, positive non-farm payroll data will drive the appreciation of the US dollar and the decline of AUD/USD. However, the US economic growth is slowing down, and the market's expectations for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy are divided, which limits the increase of the US dollar, and the downward pressure on AUD/USD is relatively limited. 1.3 Global Trade Situation Australia's economy relies on exports. The US's imposition of tariffs has triggered trade frictions, and the demand and prices of its export commodities may be affected. When trade tensions rise, investors will sell the Australian dollar, and AUD/USD will decline. When the situation eases, the demand for the Australian dollar will increase, and AUD/USD will rise. 1.4 Australian Economic Data Economic data such as Australia's GDP, employment, and inflation directly affect the trend of the Australian dollar. When the data is positive, the Australian dollar appreciates; conversely, when the data is poor, the Australian dollar depreciates, driving AUD/USD to move in the same direction. 1.5 Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy When the Federal Reserve raises interest rates, the attractiveness of US dollar assets increases, the US dollar strengthens, and AUD/USD declines. When the Federal Reserve implements interest rate cuts or quantitative easing policies, the US dollar weakens, and AUD/USD may rise. 2. Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Australia Australia has a mild inflation rate, a recovering real estate market, and a rising consumer confidence index, which provide support for the Australian dollar. Moreover, it has not been directly impacted by the US tariff policies for now, and the driving force for economic recovery still exists. 2.2 The United States The US economic growth is slowing down, and some economic data are not satisfactory. Although the non-farm payroll data in March was positive, the overall economic outlook is uncertain. The Federal Reserve Chairman said that the impact of tariff hikes exceeds expectations, and the market's expectations for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy are divided, creating conditions for the rise of AUD/USD. 3. Expectations for the Future Trend of AUD/USD 3.1 Improvement in the Global Trade Situation is Expected to Boost the Australian Dollar If trade negotiations can ease trade frictions, Australia's exports will benefit, and the Australian dollar is expected to appreciate, driving the rise of AUD/USD. If the US reduces tariffs on Australia, the Australian dollar will have stronger upward momentum. 3.2 The Expectation of Australia's Economic Recovery is Strengthened Australia has introduced a series of economic stimulus policies. If the subsequent economic data is positive, the market's confidence in the Australian dollar will increase, which will support the rise of AUD/USD. 3.3 The Possibility of the Weakening of the US Dollar Increases With the slowdown of US economic growth and the market's expectation that the Federal Reserve may implement loose monetary policies, if the subsequent non-farm payroll data is poor, the US dollar is likely to weaken, and AUD/USD will gain upward momentum. Overall, under the combined influence of various factors, AUD/USD has become more stable. Based on technical and fundamental analysis, as well as future market changes, AUD/USD is expected to rise. Investors can pay attention to market dynamics and operate at the right time. However, the foreign exchange market is highly volatile, and risk management should be carried out properly. ??? AUDUSD ??? ? Buy@0.59500 -0.59800 ? TP 0.62000 - 0.64000 The market has been extremely volatile lately. If you can't figure out the market's direction, you'll only be a cash dispenser for others. If you also want to succeed，Follow the link below to get my daily strategy updates
BTC has completed long term bullish 5 wave. Now correction face has been started! In weekly chart BTC has created a bearish flag which will lead the price to below 65k within few weeks!
Uncertain and relatively bearish market at the moment, I expect "boring" defensive stocks such as PG to be the safety play for most investors. I think this will bounce to $180. Not financial advice, good luck to all :)