In life, anything is possible , and when it comes to crypto, everything is possible . But, as I mentioned in my educational post yesterday, there’s a big difference between what is possible and what is probable. In this article, I want to analyze the possibility of Bitcoin dropping below $40,000 and more importantly, what would need to happen for this scenario to shift from just possible to truly probable. ________________________________________ BTC — From All-Time High to Distribution? If we look at the Bitcoin chart, we notice that after the first all-time high very close to $100,000 at the end of November, the market began a consolidation phase. Although we saw two more all-time highs — one around $108,000 in mid-December and another near $110,000 in January — the entire structure from late November to late February appears to be a distribution pattern rather than a healthy continuation. Once Bitcoin broke below $90,000, we can consider this distribution phase complete, with a target for short positions around $75,000 — a level I’ve highlighted in my previous posts. ________________________________________ Long-Term Logarithmic Chart — Diminishing Returns and the Bigger Picture https://www.tradingview.com/x/gpz6UvAj/ Looking at the long-term logarithmic chart, we can see a clear pattern of diminishing returns: • The first major leg up, starting in late 2011, was approximately 600x and lasted about two years, followed by a correction. • The next leg was 100x, spanning four years, followed by another correction. • Then, a 20x rally, which lasted just over a year. • Finally, the most recent leg up has been around 7x. What’s crucial here is that returns are decreasing and, even more importantly, the last leg up looks more like an ascending channel than a parabolic move like in previous cycles. ________________________________________ The Significance of the Ascending Channel This ascending channel is not unusual — the market has matured, and big players are now involved, reducing volatility. However, ascending channels on the long-term often signal potential reversals, rather than continuation. ________________________________________ What Would Make $40,000 Probable? Now, let’s address the real question: What would need to happen for Bitcoin to drop to $40,000? Zooming in on the logarithmic chart, it becomes evident that the $72,000 - $75,000 zone is a major support confluence. If this area is broken — meaning a weekly candle closes below this level — the scenario of BTC dropping toward $40,000 becomes probable. The target zone I’m watching in this case is $32,000 - $36,000, a strong historical support that is clearly visible on higher timeframes. ________________________________________ Conclusion — Watch the Key Levels, Not What you Hope To conclude: • Bitcoin dropping to those extreme levels is possible, but not yet probable. • Probabilities will shift only if key support levels are broken — specifically $72k-$75k. • The market has matured, cycles are changing, and returns are diminishing, so expecting a repeat of past parabolic runs may not be realistic. • As traders and investors, we must focus on the charts and key levels, not on hopium and hype.
BTC Update: Price Rejected at Resistance Key Developments: - BTC price has been successfully rejected from the marked resistance zone. - A deeper retracement (pullback) towards the lower marked $80k demand zone is now expected. Market Outlook: The rejection at resistance suggests a potential short-term bearish bias. Traders should monitor the $80k demand zone for a potential buying opportunity or further downside momentum.
? Shell's 5th Attempt to Break Resistance at 0.3380 ? Shell is currently testing the key resistance level of 0.3380 for the 5th time. ? Here's what to watch for: ? Strategy: Wait for a breakout on the 4-hour timeframe. If Shell sustains above **0.3380**, we could enter a long position on the retest. ? Targets: First target: 0.4000 Second target: 0.4500 Keep an eye on this level—could be a big move ahead! ?
Market Structure: Gold has recently formed a double top pattern near a key resistance level around $2980 - $2,995, signaling potential weakness in the uptrend. The price is currently testing this resistance for the second time, failing to break above it, will strengthens the bearish case. Key Technical Observations: • Double Top Formation: This pattern is a classic reversal signal, especially when accompanied by strong resistance. • Resistance Zone ($2,980 - $2,195): Gold has struggled to break above this area, increasing the likelihood of a pullback. • Neckline Support ($2836 - $2,855): If price breaks below this level, it could confirm the double top and trigger further downside. • Bearish Divergence on RSI: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is showing bearish divergence, indicating weakening bullish momentum. • 200 EMA Support: The 200-period EMA on the 4H chart aligns with a potential support zone, making it a key area to watch Recent reports indicate President putting has accepted the peace treaty making gold more bearish. Gold is currently at critical decision point . if the double top is formed and the neckline breaks we could see further downside. HOWEVER TRADERS MUST REMAIN CAUTIOUS OF ANY FUNDAMENTAL DEVELOPMENTS THAT COULD IMPACT GOLD'S DIRECTION. What are your thoughts on gold's next move??
Pairs on Watch - FX:GBPAUD OANDA:UK100GBP FX:NZDJPY FX:USDJPY A short overview of the instruments I am looking at for today, multi-timeframe analysis down to what I will be looking at for an entry. Enjoy!
US stock futures fell on Monday, signaling March's market struggles are set to continue in a week highlighted by the Federal Reserve policy meeting.
CBOT: Micro Soybean Futures ( CBOT_MINI:MZS1! ) Let’s rewire the clock back for seven years. In 2018, trade tensions escalated between the US and China, resulting in a series of tariffs and retaliations. On July 6, 2018, US imposed a 25% tariff on $34 billion of Chinese imports. On the same day, China immediately hit back with 25% tariff on equal value of US goods. American soybeans were among the hardest hit by tariffs. The United States has been the largest soybean producer in the world. According to USDA data, American farmers produced 120 million metric tons of soybeans in 2017, contributing to 35.6% of the world production. About 48.2%, or 57.9 metric tons, were exported to the global market, making US the second largest soybean exporter after Brazil. China is the largest soybean consumer and importer. In 2017, it imported 94 million metric tons of soybeans, accounting for 61.7% of the global imports. Brazil and the US were the largest sources of China’s imports, with 53% and 34% shares, respectively. Tariffs on US soybeans punished American farmers. Total tariff level was raised from 5% to 30%. As a result, the FOB cost to Shenzhen harbor in southern China hiked up 700 yuan (=$110) per ton. This made US soybeans 300 yuan more expensive than imports from Brazil. https://www.tradingview.com/x/DmPm8aVF/ Tariffs priced American farmers out of the Chinese market. According to USDA Foreign Agricultural Service, China imported 1,164 million bushels of US soybeans in 2017. By 2018, China import dropped 74% to 303. While US exports recovered to 831 in 2019, it did not resume to the pre-tariff level until the signing of US-China trade agreement. CBOT soybean futures plummeted 15-20% in the months after the tariffs were imposed. https://www.tradingview.com/x/zD3gGgjs/ US farmers incurred huge losses from both reduced sales and lower prices. The following illustration is an exercise of our mind, not from actual export data. • Without trade tensions, we assume exports of 1,164 million bushels each in 2018 and 2019, at an average price of $105 per bushel. This comes to a baseline export revenue of $244.4 billion for both years combined. • Tariffs lowered export sales to 1,134 million bushels for the two-year total, at an average price of $87. Thus, the tariff-impacted revenue data comes to $98.6 billion. • The total impact on soybean sales volume would be -51%, from 2,328 down to 1,134. • The total impact on export revenue would be -60%, from $244.4 to $98.6 billion. It is déjà vu all over again. In February 2025, the Trump administration announced 10% additional tariffs on Chinese goods. This was raised by another 10% in March, setting the total to 20%. To retaliate against US tariffs, China imposed import levies covering $21 billion worth of U.S. agricultural and food products, effective March 10th. These comprised a 15% tariff on U.S. chicken, wheat, corn and cotton and an extra levy of 10% on U.S. soybeans, sorghum, pork, beef, aquatic products, fruits and vegetables and dairy imports. This is just the beginning. In the last trade conflict, average US tariff on Chinese imports was raised from 4% to 19%. Now we set the starting point at 39%. How high could it go? From history, we learnt that this could go for several rounds before it settles. Trading with Micro Soybean Futures On March 11th, USDA published its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. Both the U.S. and global 2024/25 soybean supply and use projections are basically unchanged this month, meeting market expectations. In the last week, soybean futures bounced back by about 2%, recovered most the lost ground since China first announced the retaliative measures. The latest CFTC Commitments of Traders report shows that, as of March 11th, CBOT soybean futures have total open interest of 810,374 contracts. • Managed Money has 101,927 in long, 109,849 in short, and 108,993 in spreading positions. • It appears that the “Small Money” spreads their money evenly, not knowing which direction the soybean market would go. In my opinion, the futures market so far has completely ignored the possibility of a pro-long trade conflict with China. • Seriously, ten percent is just the start. What if the tariff goes to 30% like in 2018? • How would soybean prices react to a 50% drop in US soybean exports? Anyone with a bearish view on soybeans could express it by shorting the CBOT micro soybean futures (MZS). These are smaller-sized contracts at 1/10 of the benchmark CBOT soybean futures. At 500 bushels per contract, market opportunities are more accessible than ever with lower capital requirements, an initial margin of only $200. Coincidently, Friday settlement price of $10.17 for May contract (MZSK5) is identical to the soybean futures price of $10.40 immediately prior to the 2018 tariff. History may not repeat, but it echoes . At the last time, the tariff on soybeans saw futures prices plummeting 20% within a month. If we were to experience the same, soybeans could drop to $8.00. This is a likely scenario if tariffs were to rise higher. Hypothetically, a decline of $2 per bushel would cause a short futures position to gain $1,000, given each micro contract has a notional of 500 bushels. The risk of short futures is the continuous rise in soybean prices. The trader would be wise to set a stoploss at his sell order. For example, a stop loss at $10.50 would set the maximum loss to $165 (= (10.50-10.17) x 500), which is less than the $200 initial margin. To learn more about all Micro Ag futures contracts traded on CME Group platform, you can check out the following site: https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/agriculture/micro-ag-futures.html Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs https://www.tradingview.com/cme/
Solana is probably the most bullish chart that I have seen today. We just need a MSB before we boom. If it got rejected from here we might see new low but for now it is looking super strong. If it performs a MSB then I'll enter on the retest. GL
ETH has formed a descending wedge formation which could help itself to climb a little bit more higher. Breaking above the accumulation box could lead to an upwards move for ETH. You can get a long position around 1950. Good Luck.
Gold technical analysis Daily chart resistance 3000-3030, support below 2905 Four-hour chart resistance 3000, support below 2978 One-hour chart resistance 3000, support below 2980 Analysis of gold news: Last week, the gold market ushered in a historic breakthrough. Spot gold surged to $3005 and then fell back to consolidate. The current gold market is in a bullish and bearish game of "strong fundamental support" and "technical overbought correction". Safe-haven demand, central bank gold purchases and interest rate cut expectations constitute the basis for medium- and long-term increases, but in the short term, we need to guard against policy expectations and profit-taking selling pressure. This week's Federal Reserve meeting will become a bull-bear vane. If a loose signal is released, gold is expected to break through $3050 and open up new upside space; if the statement is hawkish or the economic data is stronger than expected, we need to be wary of the long-short battle at the $3000 mark. We need to keep a close eye on the changes in the Bollinger Bands channel shape and the momentum conversion of the MACD/RSI indicator to capture early signals of trend continuation or reversal. Gold operation suggestions: Last Friday, the technical side of gold finally ushered in a bullish upward breakthrough after repeated fluctuations around the 2980 mark. The European session once accelerated to break through the 3000-point integer mark, and then fell under pressure and fell into a volatile consolidation. The overall gold price continued the extremely strong unilateral upward pattern of bulls. Gold began to trade sideways at a high level again. After falling to 2878 on Friday, it continued to bottom out and rebound. Gold bulls are still better. Now it is accumulating momentum at a high level, but gold has not seen a large adjustment. For the time being, bulls still dominate the market and wait for a decline to continue buying. From the current trend analysis, today's lower support focuses on the one-hour level 2980 and the four-hour level 2978 line, focusing on the long-short dividing line support of 2950. The intraday retracement relies on the 2980-2978 line to continue to be bullish and unchanged, and the upper target is still concerned about the new high. Buy: 2980near SL: 2975 Buy: 2950near SL: 2945