ECONOMICS:EUINTR - ECB Lowers Interest Rates by 25bps (April/2025) ECONOMICS:EUINTR April/2025 source: European Central Bank - The European Central Bank lowered interest rates by 25 basis points on Thursday, as expected, marking the sixth consecutive cut since June and bringing the key deposit rate down to 2.25%. Policymakers noted that the disinflation process is progressing well and dropped previous references to a "restrictive" policy stance, while cautioning that the growth outlook has worsened amid escalating trade tensions.
A U.S. judge has found Google guilty of illegally monopolizing the digital advertising technology markets. The monopolization of both the demand and supply sides has been a long-standing concern for the rest of the digital advertising sector. This ruling may significantly benefit The Trade Desk (TTD), as it operates as an independent demand-side platform. The digital advertising market is projected to exceed $600 billion in 2025, and Google currently believed to be controls nearly 30% of that. Even a 5% slip in Google’s market share, with TTD capturing just 10% of that shift, could nearly double TTD's revenue. As a result, this ruling is can be considered very bullish for TTD, both in the medium and long term. Technically, TTD recently tested the $40 level, a key support that has held since Q4 of 2020, indicating the stock is currently in a strong demand zone. With this news, the likelihood of that support holding and a bullish reversal increases. Analyst consensus reflects an 85.8% upside potential. If the bullish scenario plays out, the horizontal level at $60 and the 200-day moving average could serve as key medium-term targets. From current levels to the 200-day SMA, the potential return is close to 50%.
Technical Analysis Amazon (AMZN) has broken below its weekly ascending trendline and failed to reclaim the key 0.618 Fibonacci level (180.52). Strong bearish volume and a weakening RSI suggest downside continuation. Key support targets lie at 161.55, 151.21, and 142.58, with extended downside to 119.12. Fundamentals Macro pressure from high interest rates and a slowdown in consumer spending weighs on Amazon. Intense competition in AWS and e-commerce adds uncertainty. Upcoming earnings may serve as a catalyst for directional clarity. Scenarios: Base case – move down toward 151.21, 142.58, 119.12 Bullish case – break above 180.52 → rally toward 207.52, 241.92
There's a quote from legendary investor John Templeton that goes like this: "The time of maximum pessimism is the best time to buy, and the time of maximum optimism is the best time to sell." This is contrarian, of course, but there's also a lot to it if we try to unwrap it. But first I want to start off even broader than that. I try to often remind myself of just how uncertain the future is and just how pointless it is to try to predict. It can be hard, to be sure, especially if you're around the business of speculation. But, spend a long enough time and see enough 'sure things' turn out to be disappointments or backfires, and I think it becomes a bit simpler. I don't look at analysis as predictive. I look at it as probabilistic. But even then those probabilities will have a degree of uncertainty because that future will always be vulnerable for some type of surprise. My aim instead is to seek out the prospect of asymmetry; ways to risk a dollar in order to make two, or possibly three. In analysis, I largely lean technical because I tend to think that most of the 'known knowns' get priced-in fairly quickly and pretty well. Perhaps there is some edge in there somewhere, but my information flow isn't great enough to allow me to have an inside angle against investment banks. While I do think that fundamentals get priced-in fairly well I do not think that markets are perfectly efficient as there is a clear process of price discovery. The chart, however, is a pretty clear depiction of where price has moved and I don't need to concern myself as much for the reasons as to 'why,' if I can focus enough on the 'what.' I think there are two tenets of technical analysis that are of importance: A) Trends exist, and there's often a reason for them. and B) Support and Resistance can mark inflection points in a market, because trends do not price in linearly. It's the higher-lows that show you bulls' response to pullbacks and that's what really allows for that next higher-high to show up. It's a clear illustration of shifting sentiment, shown perfectly on the chart. And this is what takes us back to that quote from Mr. John Templeton... It's when price is forming those highs that we tend to get most excited. Because we can see it - visually - with our own eyes, that trend or bias showing up in real-time. This is when we might get FOMO coursing through us, compelling us to buy even if it doesn't seem smart, even if we haven't thought about 'what if,' even if we haven't entertained the very rational idea that 'this may not last forever.' It's just part of the human condition, really, and it's why a lot of retail traders end up buying tops as they let their excitement get the better of them. Now, Mr. Templeton said the best time to buy is the time of maximum pessimism and that leans very contrarian. And taken to an extreme, this can be an excuse to fade every move that shows up or every breakout that takes place, and that can be a painful way to go about matters. But, there may be a way to hedge that statement in a trend-riding basis as saying the optimal time to establish longs is when the prospect of a reversal has started to rise. Or, to put otherwise, it's when that excitement isn't coursing on a fresh breakout; and instead, after a pullback that has shown that the trend is not infallible. It's when the uber bulls couldn't imagine anything other than continued rip in the trend grow silent, instead fearing that they may get caught holding longs from a top. In gold the market has been ripping higher for more than a year. But when it seemed most quiet was when it was most opportunistic, such as the bull pennant that brewed in Q4, or the pullbacks that have shown up along the way. We had one of those a couple of weeks ago and it started to seem as though a larger reversal could take hold. But - a clean support hold at 2956 was followed by a doji on the daily chart - and then bulls crowded back in to rush up to another fresh all-time-high. Again, on Monday of this week another pullback showed up, this time a slighter move with price tilting down to 3200. But bulls responded in a big way and then ran another fresh all-time-high just a day later. Now, eventually one of these pullbacks could extend and turn into a multi-week or perhaps even multi-month type of event, similar to the Q4 triangle that made up the pennant. But, at this stage that bullish trend that has taken on a parabolic nature continues to press and there's no indication yet that it's over. There remains support potential and this can be followed for pullback setups. The closest zone is the 3245-3250 area, and if this price comes into play and bulls come in to hold lows around that prior resistance, this could be an illustration of a building higher-low. Below that, 3150-3167 is of interest, as this was resistance earlier in April and, to date, hasn't shown much for support. And below that, there's 3050-3057 which was a point of resistance that also hasn't yet shown as support. Even the 3k handle can be considered as the April lows rest around the spot of prior resistance, from the March highs, at 2956. With a trend that's been this one-sided there's a lot of room for possible profit taking; but it's not until there's been a clearer shift of sentiment that we can say that the trend is dead. Does this mean that we'll be able to predict anything? Because the trick of Mr. Templeton's quote is that predicting 'maximum pessimism' or 'maximum optimism' is just as pointless as trying to predict price. Because it is price itself that will denominate that sentiment! If price continues to tank then, yeah, people are going to get more and more pessimistic and that does not mean that it's automatically a great time to buy (nor sell)! No, but waiting for pullbacks in clear trends is a way to take a risk-efficient approach towards speculation, while trying to keep our own emotions in check and allowing for us to stick to a plan. Which, for a trader, is one of the more pragmatic ways that one can go about the endeavor of speculation. James Stanley
Abstract Nike is one of the most recognizable brands on the planet, yet its valuation often lags behind newer, tech-driven companies with far less global influence. What if Nike were launched today — with its current revenue, market dominance, and brand power — but operated like a modern D2C startup with a tech DNA? This research explores what Nike would be worth in today’s market conditions, showing just how undervalued it may actually be when compared to new-age companies. 1. Introduction Nike, Inc. (NYSE: NKE) is a global sportswear powerhouse with over $51 billion in annual revenue and a footprint in more than 170 countries. It has shaped athlete endorsement culture, built a generational brand, and transformed consumer behavior. Yet its current market capitalization sits around $80 billion — modest compared to newer players with less revenue but tech-first narratives. This article dives into a simple but powerful hypothetical: If a new company replicated Nike's current revenue and global dominance today, how would the market value it? 2. Nike Today: A Snapshot Metric Value FY2023 Revenue $51.2 Billion Market Cap (Apr 17, 2025) ~$80 Billion Net Profit Margin ~10.5% P/E Ratio (TTM) ~17.9 Brand Value (Forbes, 2020) ~$39.1 Billion* Global Reach 170+ Countries *According to Forbes' Most Valuable Brands, Nike ranked #13 globally with a brand value of $39.1 billion in 2020. Other rankings (e.g., Interbrand 2023) place Nike's brand value even higher at $53.7 billion. Despite being a category leader, Nike trades at a modest 1.6x sales multiple, compared to modern companies that command 5x, 7x, or even 30x+ valuations. 3. New-Age Valuation Framework Today’s market rewards: Tech-first operations High-margin D2C models Recurring revenue (subscriptions, memberships) Community-driven brand growth AI, personalization, and digital experiences Let’s compare valuation multiples: Company Sector Revenue Market Cap P/S Ratio Nike Apparel $51.2B $80B ~1.6x Lululemon Apparel SEED_TVCODER77_ETHBTCDATA:9B $50B ~5.5x Salesforce SaaS $34B $240B ~7x Nvidia AI/Chips $60B $2.3T ~38x 4. What Would a “Modern Nike” Be Worth Today? If a new company today built: $50B+ revenue Global presence and branding like Nike D2C-first, tech-enabled business 40–50% gross margins with scalable digital ops Then, even at a conservative 6x revenue multiple, its valuation would be: $50B × 6 = $300 Billion And that's before factoring in: AI-driven retail personalization Creator monetization ecosystems Loyalty programs and recurring revenue streams Lower inventory risk with tech-driven fulfillment 5. Brand Value Through Royalty Method Using the Royalty Relief Method: Brand-attributable revenue (90% of $51.2B) = FWB:46B Royalty rate = 6% Annual royalty = $2.76B Present Value (8% discount rate): $2.76B ÷ 0.08 = \boxed{~$34.5B} Nike’s brand, purely from an intellectual property lens, is worth significantly more than market pricing implies. 6. Why Nike Seems Undervalued Categorized as a traditional apparel retailer vs. tech-first brand Slower YoY growth relative to newer disruptors Wholesale-heavy model impacts margins Market overlooks its cultural dominance and brand loyalty If Nike shifted its model to fully digital, leaned into AI and subscriptions, and emphasized platform economics, its valuation could more than double. 7. Conclusion Nike, if built today, would not be an $80B company — it would likely be valued between $300B and $400B. That’s the gap investors often miss. Nike isn’t just a shoe and apparel brand — it’s global IP, media, culture, and influence. Yet in today’s market, it trades like a legacy retailer. If a startup were to achieve what Nike already has, it would be considered a generational tech unicorn. Nike isn’t overvalued — it’s misunderstood. About This Research This research article was developed using AI-powered analytical tools, historical data modeling, and comparative valuation logic to explore hypothetical scenarios around Nike’s valuation. It combines financial fundamentals with modern market heuristics to offer a data-driven perspective on brand valuation in the context of today’s tech-driven economy. Disclaimer The information provided in this article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. The analysis, opinions, and projections expressed are solely those of the author and are based on publicly available data as of the time of writing. This article is a hypothetical research exploration and should not be interpreted as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any securities mentioned herein. All trademarks, brand names, and company references (including Nike Inc., Nvidia, Salesforce, etc.) are the property of their respective owners and are used for illustrative purposes only. The author is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or sponsored by any of the mentioned companies. Investing in the stock market involves risk, including the potential loss of principal. Readers are strongly advised to do their own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor or other qualified professionals before making any investment decisions. Past performance does not guarantee future results. The hypothetical scenarios and valuations discussed in this article are speculative in nature and are not guarantees of future company valuations or performance.
A new opportunity to enter a position has formed. The setup is simple and clear: the stop-loss is very tight, just 0.60%, while the upside potential is around +8%. Globally, nothing has changed — the trend remains bullish, and I continue to work from the long side. Locally, I believe the recent pullback has completed. The market structure suggests that buyers are regaining control. Even if this assumption turns out to be wrong, the tight stop-loss minimizes the risk and protects the position. Clear risk management and strong reward-to-risk ratio make this setup particularly attractive. Always manage your risk and stay disciplined!
PAKRI was in consolidation range for four months, it gave a BreakOut on 4th April. It has successfully retested the BO. Buy around 16 TP 17.3 SL below 15.5
Crypto exchange Bybit is scaling back its Web3 product suite, announcing the shutdown of several services following the closure of its NFT marketplace earlier this month. Bybit said it will sunset a range of decentralized offerings by May 31, including its custodial Cloud Wallet, non-custodial Keyless Wallet, DEX Pro decentralized exchange, Swap & Bridge cross-chain […]
Even the most seasoned CFD traders can fall into psychological traps—from chasing the hype to holding poor trades out of stubborn hope. Emotional biases can cloud judgment and lead even experienced traders to costly blunders. However, psychological resilience reduces the risk of a loss. Octa Broker, as part of its commitment to traders’ education, explores […]
Hidden Road, a global credit network for institutions, said on Thursday that its U.S. subsidiary, Hidden Road Partners CIV US LLC, has received broker-dealer registration from the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA), enabling it to expand its fixed income prime brokerage operations. The registration allows Hidden Road to offer regulatory-compliant clearing and financing services for […]