I was reviewing some of my old charts and came across this one because the patterns here are really interesting. Back on November 15th, I posted a head and shoulders pattern, but as you can see, it didn’t play out as expected. Every time Bitcoin made a new high, it got rejected and pulled back to the support level. This has happened multiple times Bitcoin goes up, makes a new high, and then retraces all the way back down to the same support level. What’s different this time is that Bitcoin tried to push for new highs but failed, instead forming a lower high. Now, it’s testing a critical support level, marked by the two white trend lines on the chart. Bitcoin is currently at the support level, but the real test will come when it reaches that point of support. That’s the key support area that Bitcoin must hold. Bitcoin really needs to maintain this support. If it breaks through, we could see a significant drop, potentially all the way down to $77,085.65. I don’t want to sound overly negative, but I’m just giving you a heads-up on what could unfold in 2025. All eyes will be on the $91,541.87 level this is the crucial support level. If Bitcoin can’t hold that area, it could trigger a further decline. Keep a close watch, as this could be a pivotal point for the next major move.
My records of Bitcoin prices over the past 4 years
We are closely looking level 90,682.58 on the BTC/USD pair. It appears the market is entering a bearish pullback towards the end of the year. On the order book, we see large funds selling positions to secure year-end profits. We consider this market condition a pullback phase if we break through the 90,682.58 fractal low. This is normal and occurs every December in the markets. Overall, we only scalp trade during December and January, without expecting any significant moves. We will keep you posted if volume returns to the markets.
My target of 1 #BTC = 100K$ is completed. Now, on 12/24/2024, I update my new technical analysis of #BTC for 2025. The red top 3 can stop anywhere in the 108K-130K zone. The blue 12345 is the small wave of the red wave 3. The blue top 5 can also stop anywhere in the 108K-130K zone to create the red top 3. Supposing the red wave 3 ended at the 108K peak, the blue 4 will not stop in the 92K-85K zone, but there will be a D1 candle closing below 85K to confirm that the price can go deeper to the red bottom 4 before continuing to increase in price according to the red wave 5.
The Effect of Sun in Capricorn on Gold (21st December - 30 Days Forward) Historically, when the Sun transitions into Capricorn, gold exhibits a 90% probability of bullish movement within the following 30 days. Key Observations: 1. Seasonal Bullish Pattern The Sun in Capricorn often marks a period of increased demand or positive sentiment for gold, driving prices higher during this phase. 2. Current Market Dynamics - While many analysts predict further declines, with a potential target at $2,540 after breaking below the base level, I hold a contrarian view. - The current price action resembles a retest of the broken base, which many expect to confirm a downtrend. However, I believe this retest will serve as a setup for the price to re-enter the base and establish a bullish trend. 3. Swing Low Opportunity This could represent the final swing low of the year, offering a significant buying opportunity for traders who anticipate a return to higher levels. 4. Bullish Momentum Potential Once the price reclaims the base, the structure will likely support a rally towards key resistance levels outlined in the previous analysis, leading to a bullish breakout scenario. Conclusion: Despite the bearish narrative and the possibility of further drops, my perspective suggests a bullish reversal is on the horizon. Traders should watch for signs of strength as the price moves back into its base, signaling the beginning of a new bullish trend to close the year on a high note.
DJIA (US30) is rising towards an overlap resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower. Sell entry is at 43,058.41 which is an overlap resistance that aligns close to a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Stop loss is at 43,850.00 which is a level that sits above the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement and a pullback resistance. Take profit is at 42,139.85 which is a swing-low support. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com/uk): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 64% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (www.fxcm.com/eu): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com/au): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com/au Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com/markets): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
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Based on the H1 chart analysis, we can see that the price is rising toward our sell entry at 1.0421, which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibo retracement. Our take profit will be at 1.0373, which is a pullback support level. The stop loss will be placed at 1.0479, a pullback resistance. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (fxcm.com/uk): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (fxcm.com/eu): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (fxcm.com/au): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at fxcm.com/au Stratos Global LLC (fxcm.com/markets): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Hello traders, Everyone must be clear that there are multiple factors causing tight liquidity at the end of 2024 1. Special Timing Factors - US markets traditionally have lower liquidity during Christmas to New Year period - Financial institutions' year-end settlements and balance sheet adjustments - Traders' holiday breaks naturally lead to decreased trading volume 2. US Government's Debt Issuance Pressure - Scale: Treasury auctions exceeding $70 billion - Timing: During the lowest liquidity period - Distribution of Types: - 2-year Treasury bonds - 5-year Treasury bonds - 7-year Treasury bonds - Impact: Will further drain dollar liquidity from the market 3. Federal Reserve's Response Measures Fed's current Standing Repo Facility (SRF) (temporary liquidity operations) characteristics: - Time window: 12/30/2024 - 1/3/2025 - Scale: $500 billion daily - Nature: Temporary liquidity support - Operation method: Overnight repo Interpretation of Fed's SRF policy implications: - Only covers the most critical days around year-end - Shows Fed's vigilance against market volatility 4. Risk Warnings: Liquidity Risk + Thin Holiday Trading - Market volatility may increase - Asset prices may fluctuate - Trading costs may rise - Year-end cross-year trading requires caution Last week's group reminder: Gold short-selling plan, short targets were: TP1: 2648 achieved, manage positions and trailing stops TP2: 2618 first target for new positions, consider entry timing on Thursday after Fed meeting TP3: 2575 not yet reached Friday's group reminder: Not advisable to enter new positions, continue managing stops and position sizes for existing short positions. This week, due to Christmas holidays, liquidity is low, not recommended to open new positions. Continue managing stops and positions for last week's short positions, ultimate profit target remains at 2575, but if stop losses are triggered unexpectedly, exit and observe, waiting for the next opportunity. Technically, on the 4-hour chart, gold's retracement has reached the first structural position (STRUCTURE 1) at FIBO 382 level in the 2930-2940 area. Watch the resistance force when price reaches this position, observe for new 1-hour reversal signals for potential continued downward movement in gold. GOOD LUCK! Merry Xmas! LESS IS MORE!
In this idea I illustrate how we are on a Barts head falling to 86-87k range. The reason I believe this has been missed by a lot of people is the slanted angle of it as we are on a hard uptrend. Tilt your head and see what I mean...I hope this helps you. Much love - ND