We need to talk about one important nuance. Many people ask “Hellena, you say you can't buy oil, but it's going up. Well, it is, yes. But all my data and wave markings suggest that the price will soon start a downward movement. There are major changes in geopolitics and I am not in a position to stop them. I just set a stoploss and wait for the trade that will bring me profit. Now coming to the forecast, I think that the downward movement will start soon, but before it, the price may rise quite high, maybe even to the area of 74.000. But the main direction is the support area of 65.268. There are 2 possible ways to enter the trade: 1) Entry at market price. 2) Limit pending sell orders if the price starts an upward movement to the area of 74.484. Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
This chart represents the Gold Spot (XAU/USD) 15-minute timeframe, showing key support and resistance levels along with a potential price movement scenario. Red Zones: Mark critical support (~3,100) and resistance (~3,140) areas. Blue Lines: Indicate intermediate resistance (~3,133) and support (~3,120). Projected Path: The price may test 3,120 before attempting a breakout toward 3,133. The chart suggests a possible bullish breakout if resistance is cleared, or a rejection leading to further consolidation.
USD/CHF bullish setup—dollar strengthening after a prolonged downtrend since trump's election. march consolidation broke, now targeting recovery. buying USD against CHF
Range is going to break anyone side where it goes i will join it
Mugal recently break downtrend line new safe entry after 76 Rsi in a range between 30-70
? US30 Trade Update – 02/04/2025 ? ? Market Structure & Key Levels US30 is consolidating around 41,937, struggling to break above 42,075. Bulls need strong momentum to push through resistance, while bears are watching for rejections. ? Key Observations: ✅ Holding Above 41,749 Support ✅ Short-Term Range Between 41,749 - 42,075 ? Key Resistance Above: 42,359 → 42,787 ? Trade Plan: ? Long above 42,075 → Target 42,359 - 42,787 ? Short below 41,749 → Target 41,300 - 41,261 ⚠️ Sideways price action = Wait for clear breakout!
Japan’s lost decades are behind us. Many long-term factors are driving resurgence in Japanese equities. Economic growth is accelerating – driven by strong domestic consumption. Radical market reforms have made Japan attractive for domestic and global investors. As a result, the benchmark Nikkei 225 set a new all-time-high after four decades. However, the rally is facing challenges. Tightening monetary policy, trade uncertainties, and waning impact of corporate efficiency reforms pose near-term headwinds that could push the benchmark into a correction, followed by a period of consolidation. BOJ’s rates hikes The Bank of Japan (BoJ) plays a crucial role in the performance of Japanese equities. Since 2016, the BoJ instituted negative rates to support economic growth which boosted equity markets. Chart 1: From 2015 to 2025, loose monetary policy boosted the Nikkei 225, but equities have stagnated since rates began rising https://www.tradingview.com/x/X1SfgI5J/ However, in March 2024, the BoJ hiked rates for the first time after two decades. Subsequently, rates were lifted twice, up to 0.5%, the highest since 2008. Crucially, it intends to raise rates further as part of a broader return to neutral policy rate – one that’s neither too restrictive nor too accommodative. Chart 2: The Nikkei 225 tends to rise slightly before BoJ meetings but falls sharply afterward, especially following rate hike (2024 to Present) https://www.tradingview.com/x/gxfY2PNi/ The BoJ is expected to hike rates by 50 basis points by end of March 2026 according to a Reuters poll . Two-thirds expect the next rate hike in Q3, likely in July this year. Traditionally the wage hikes in spring serve as a critical indicator for the BOJ, influencing its decision to continue raising interest rates as part of its shift towards a more neutral monetary policy. This year, many economists expect the wage hikes to match or exceed 5.1% as seen in 2024. With yen’s slide halting, the BoJ will have more room to manoeuvre. Consequently, a rate hike seems likely forming additional headwinds to Japanese equities. Fading impact of Corporate Reforms Nikkei’s ascent is also thanks in part to TSE’s corporate reforms. For years, Japanese equities were seen as “value trap,” dissuading investors. In 2023, to unlock the value trap, the TSE embarked on a campaign to enhance capital efficiency among listed Japanese firms to attract wider investment. New listing rules “urge” firms to deploy their capital better – either through shareholder returns or CAPEX. These reforms were effective in the near-term, boosting key valuation metrics such as P/B and P/E ratios. However, the improvements from these reforms are starting to slow. Chart 3: Japan’s Prime Market weighted average Price-to-Book ratio has fallen back to pre-reform levels over the past year (2023 to Present) Average P/B and P/E ratios of the prime market firms listed on the TSE is back to pre-reform levels. The large short-term bump from these policies have faded, no longer providing an immediate tailwind. Chart 4: Japan’s Prime Market weighted average Price-to-Earnings ratio has fallen back to pre-reform levels over the past year (2023 to Present) Tariff Risks Haunt Markets Perhaps the largest near-term risk facing the Nikkei 225 is the potential for trade disruptions. Chart 5: Nikkei 225 daily returns show a sharp drop on the day tariffs were announced https://www.tradingview.com/x/SAkAHoKY/ Trump has announced a steep 25% tariff on imported cars, set to take effect on April 2, a dramatic 10-fold increase from the current 2.5%. Additionally, he has raised the steel and aluminium tariffs to 25%, with no exemptions or exceptions—a significant blow to Japan, one of America's key trade and security allies. Despite Japan’s trade minister Yoji Muto lobbying for relief in Washington, the U.S. has yet to offer any concessions. US remains Japan’s largest export market, accounting for ¥21 trillion ($140. 6 billion) in trade, with automobiles making up nearly 28% of that figure. The impending tariff spike is expected to dent Japanese exports, slash domestic production, and squeeze profit margins. Trade tariffs, especially those impacting some of the largest companies in the Nikkei 225 present a significant risk for investors. Additionally, the tariffs are likely to lead to a shrinking trade surplus for Japan which may weaken the yen and further exacerbate inflationary pressures, prompting the BoJ to hike rates. Nikkei 225 is Weighted Towards Exporters The Nikkei 225 index is dominated by technology firms which makes up almost half of the index. This sector includes both Electronic Manufacturing firms and Software & Communications companies. Notable firms within this sector are Tokyo Electron (5.9%), Advantest (5.7%), Softbank Group (4.2%), and KDDI (2.5%). Chart 6: Nikkei 225 sector weightings shows large weightage towards technology firms Other notable categories are Consumer Goods and Materials. Consumer Goods is dominated by Fast Retailing, the single largest component of the index with a weight of 10.7%. The index is impacted substantially by trade given its heavy tilt towards manufacturing. Rising input costs from imports and reduced demand for exports can both stifle performance Chart 7: Nikkei 225 Sector wise 1Y performance. Over the past year, Finance has been one of the strongest sectors in the index. Contrastingly, Producer Manufacturing, which has a high weightage in the index, has been among the underperforming sectors. This trend is likely to continue, with trade disruptions and a slowing AI rally posing headwinds to major index components. CME Group Nikkei 225 Futures CME Group’s suite of Nikkei 225 futures provide a range of instruments to express views on Japan’s benchmark equity index. Futures are available in two different contract sizes – Standard and Micro. More information on these can be found at the Nikkei 225 Futures page . Particularly, the newly launched Micro Nikkei 225 contract presents interesting possibilities for both trading & hedging exposure. Due to the smaller size, the contract requires lower margin, boosting capital efficiency for traders. For risk managers, it allows for precise hedging, reducing unwanted residual exposures. A crucial use case of these futures is the expanded trading hours in the week. Investors can trade CME Group’s Nikkei futures 23 hours a day, 5 days a week, significantly longer than the underlying cash market. This allows futures to be an effective overnight hedging tool. Chart 8: CME Micro Nikkei futures cumulative volume growth The Micro Nikkei futures are available both as a yen-denominated, and USD-denominated product. Both provide for compelling use-cases to hedge FX volatility. Investors can use the USD-denominated contract to negate any risk from movements in the yen, and trade directly using USD. Conversely, the yen-denominated contract can be deployed strategically to benefit from a strengthening yen. Technicals Signal Near-Term Bearishness Technical summary of Nikkei 225 index shows a bearish outlook on the 1D chart timeframe. This suggests potential downside in the near-term. Chart 9: Nikkei 225 technical indicator signals short-term bearish outlook In the longer-term (1-month timeframe) Nikkei 225 technical indicators show a bullish signal. Chart 10: Nikkei 225 long-term technical indicator signals bullish outlook Looking at specific technical indicators, the rebound following the tariff related decline seems to be fading with MACD and RSI, signalling a weakening trend. With Nikkei 225 trading below a key support/resistance level, strong momentum may be required to pass this level. At present, that momentum is lacking. Chart 11: Nikkei 225 RSI, Bollinger Bands, and MACD signal emerging bearish trend https://www.tradingview.com/x/kzCxeyf9/ Hypothetical Trade Setup While Nikkei 225 has multiple long-term drivers that support secular growth, near-term risks are palpable. Tariff uncertainty, BoJ policy, and fading impact of the TSE market reforms support a short-term bearish view on the Nikkei 225. Investors can express this view by deploying a short position on Micro Nikkei (JPY) denominated futures expiring on June 13 (MNIM25). The following hypothetical trade setup provides a reward to risk ratio of 1.8x. The same view can be expressed using CME Group’s standard Nikkei (JPY) denominated contract which would scale the below P&L by 10x. Crucially, this position’s P&L is denominated in yen. The yen appreciation due to BoJ policy will further boost the USD value of this P&L, enhancing overall returns. Chart 12: Shorting Micro Nikkei (JPY) futures expiring in June (hypothetical trade setup) https://www.tradingview.com/x/8DehZuci/ Entry: 37,650 Target: 36,300 Stop Loss: 38,400 Profit REACHED at Target: JPY 67,500 = ((37,650-36,300) x JPY 50), which is around ~USD 450 Loss at Stop: JPY 37,500= ((37,650-38,400) x JPY 50), which is around ~USD 250 Reward to Risk: 1.8x Trade Nikkei 225 Futures with Phillip Nova from 10 Cents/Lot* Start trading Nikkei 225 Futures with Phillip Nova from just 10 cents/lot*. Since its inception in 1983, Phillip Nova (formerly Phillip Futures) has become one of the region's top brokerages, offering access to Futures, Stocks, CFDs, Forex. ETFs and Commodities. With clearing memberships in 21 global exchanges, including CME, HKEX, SGX, and more, Phillip Nova offers you a seamless trading experience. Trade CME Micro Nikkei 225 with a lower barrier to entry.
NCC - NCC LTD (2 hours chart, NSE) - Long Position; short-term research idea. Risk assessment: High {volume & support structure integrity risk} Risk/Reward ratio ~ 4.9 Current Market Price (CMP) ~ 212.70 Entry limit range ~ 212.50 to 209.50 (Avg. - 211) on April 02, 2025 at 12:53 PM. 1. Target limit ~ 223 (+5.69%; +12 points) 2. Target limit ~ 233 (+10.43%; +22 points) Stop order limit ~ 206.5 (-2.13%; -4.5 points) Disclaimer: Investments in securities markets are subject to market risks. All information presented in this group is strictly for reference and personal study purposes only and is not a recommendation and/or a solicitation to act upon under any interpretation of the letter. LEGEND: {curly brackets} = observation notes = important updates (parentheses) = information details ~ tilde/approximation = variable value -hyphen = fixed value
Chart patterns are essential tools for traders looking to identify high-probability setups based on price action. Among the most reliable continuation and reversal patterns are triangles, wedges, and flags. These formations help traders anticipate market direction and make informed decisions based on breakout potential, trend strength, and volume confirmation. In this guide, we’ll explore the key characteristics, trading strategies, and confirmation techniques for each of these patterns to improve trade execution and risk management. Triangle Patterns Types of Triangle Patterns Triangles are consolidation patterns that indicate a period of indecision before price continues in the direction of the breakout. There are three main types of triangle patterns: Ascending Triangle – A bullish continuation pattern where the price forms higher lows while resistance remains flat. https://www.tradingview.com/x/gFbrr9tC/ Descending Triangle – A bearish continuation pattern where the price forms lower highs while support remains flat. https://www.tradingview.com/x/Amput9Jf/ Symmetrical Triangle – A neutral pattern where price forms lower highs and higher lows, squeezing into an apex before breaking out. https://www.tradingview.com/x/Gwzed7ce/ How to Trade Triangles Identify the Triangle Formation: Look for at least two touchpoints on each trendline (support and resistance) to confirm the pattern. Wait for Breakout Confirmation: The price should break above resistance (bullish) or below support (bearish) with strong volume. Set Entry & Stop-Loss Levels: Enter the trade after a candle closes beyond the breakout point. Set a stop-loss below the most recent swing low (for bullish trades) or above the swing high (for bearish trades). Measure Target Price: The expected move is typically equal to the height of the triangle measured from the widest part of the pattern. https://www.tradingview.com/x/7t9b4WNo/ Wedge Patterns Types of Wedge Patterns Wedges are similar to triangles but are characterized by sloping trendlines that converge in the same direction. They indicate a potential trend reversal or continuation depending on the breakout direction. Rising Wedge – A bearish reversal pattern that forms during uptrends. The price makes higher highs and higher lows, but the slope narrows, signaling weakening momentum before a breakdown. https://www.tradingview.com/x/HpcSPSHw/ Falling Wedge – A bullish reversal pattern that forms during downtrends. The price makes lower highs and lower lows within a narrowing channel before a breakout to the upside. https://www.tradingview.com/x/5bmqkCrn/ How to Trade Wedges Identify the Wedge Pattern: Look for a contracting price range within two sloping trendlines. Watch for a Breakout: The price should break either above (for falling wedges) or below (for rising wedges) with increasing volume. Confirm the Breakout: Use additional indicators such as RSI divergence or moving average crossovers to validate the move. Set Entry, Stop-Loss, and Target: Enter after the breakout candle closes beyond the trendline, with a stop-loss outside the opposite side of the wedge. Target the height of the wedge projected from the breakout point. https://www.tradingview.com/x/HFDszuSk/ Flag Patterns Characteristics of Flag Patterns Flag patterns are continuation patterns that occur after a strong impulsive move (flagpole), followed by a period of consolidation (flag) before price resumes the trend. Flags can be classified as: Bullish Flag – Forms after a strong upward move, followed by a downward-sloping consolidation. https://www.tradingview.com/x/heq5DAGv/ Bearish Flag – Forms after a strong downward move, followed by an upward-sloping consolidation. https://www.tradingview.com/x/lRbF92KF/ How to Trade Flag Patterns Identify the Flagpole: Look for a sharp price move in one direction, which forms the base of the flag. Confirm the Flag Formation: Price consolidates within parallel trendlines that slightly slope against the prior trend. Wait for the Breakout: Enter when price breaks out of the flag pattern in the direction of the previous trend with strong volume. Measure Target Price: The price target is typically equal to the length of the flagpole projected from the breakout point. Set Stop-Loss: Place the stop-loss below the lower boundary of the flag (for bullish flags) or above the upper boundary (for bearish flags). https://www.tradingview.com/x/77WJ1YrF/ Common Mistakes & How to Avoid Them Trading Before Confirmation: Many traders enter too early without waiting for a breakout confirmation, leading to false signals. Ignoring Volume: Breakouts should be accompanied by a volume surge for validation; weak volume can indicate a fake breakout. Setting Tight Stop-Losses: Giving the trade enough room to breathe by placing stops outside key support/resistance levels prevents getting stopped out prematurely. Forgetting to Manage Risk: Always follow proper risk-reward ratios (at least 1:2) to ensure profitable long-term trading. Final Thoughts Triangle, wedge, and flag patterns are powerful tools for traders who understand their structure and breakout behavior. By combining these patterns with volume analysis, trend confirmation indicators, and proper risk management, traders can increase their chances of success. Whether you're trading stocks, forex, or crypto, mastering these patterns will enhance your ability to navigate the markets efficiently. __________________________________________ Thanks for your support! If you found this guide helpful or learned something new, drop a like ? and leave a comment, I’d love to hear your thoughts! ? Make sure to follow me for more price action insights, free indicators, and trading strategies. Let’s grow and trade smarter together! ?
The BGB will come to a price point of 4.88. Not investment advice.