Simply looking at this BTC chart on a LOG scale and plotting havings on the dotted yellow lines, I see a clear logarithmic function in the price movement of Bitcoin. What am I missing? It can't be this straight forward, (programmed scarcity) I don't believe that I am smart enough to see such an obvious price movement? I had a conversation with ChatGPT about this, and I recommend anyone who might read this to do the same. Ask it "what is a Logarithmic function", "what are characteristics of a logarithmic function". The answer I got was as follows - "A logarithmic function is a mathematical function that is the inverse of an exponential function. It helps to solve for the exponent in equations where the variable is in the exponent position. For example, in the logarithmic function f(x)=logb(x)f(x)=logb(x), bb is the base of the logarithm, and xx is the argument. The logarithm answers the question: "To what power must the base bb be raised to produce xx?" For example, if log2(8)=3log2(8)=3, it means 22 raised to the power of 33 equals 88. I followed up with, “So could we apply this principle to computational sciences to program scarcity, such as programming electronic gold?”, from my experience you need to use ChatGPT like a hunter baiting a trap, to get the most out of it before tying it back into your topic of choice. Like manipulating a child, don't ask your question straight forward, let them wander till they get where you want them. It answers as follows- Absolutely! In computational sciences, logarithms are used in various applications, including programming systems that simulate scarcity, like digital currencies. For example, in cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin, logarithmic functions can help manage and simulate the scarcity of the digital asset by controlling the rate at which new coins are generated. This ensures that the total supply of the currency remains limited, much like how physical gold is finite. Logarithmic functions can also be used in algorithms that ensure the system's growth and supply constraints are maintained efficiently. Right where I wanted it to step, boom, "So is Bitcoin a logarithmic function?” I ask Not exactly. Bitcoin itself isn't a logarithmic function, but logarithmic functions are used in the underlying algorithms and economics of cryptocurrencies . Bitcoin uses a process called "mining" to generate new coins, and this process involves complex mathematical algorithms. The total supply of Bitcoin is capped at 21 million coins, and the rate at which new coins are created decreases over time in a manner that can be described using exponential decay functions. Logarithms come into play in various aspects of computing and cryptography, such as in calculating the difficulty of Now if any is still reading, hold on your pants this is where it gets interesting “So could somebody simply look at the scarcity of gold throughout history, copy that scarcity logarithmic function, and apply that to programmed cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin, and then just re-emulate history's past performance through a logarithmic function using technologies like cryptocurrencies?” I asked. If this is true... I am not sure, you could re-create history ? I'll not include the Google-able info it said about the BTC having protocol to save on length, but this was the 'kill shot' for my hunt. " Now here's where logarithms come in: In computer science and cryptography, logarithms are often used in the algorithms that estimate how difficult a given task is, especially when the task involves exponential growth or decay. For example, calculating the logarithmic growth of the hash rate over time can help in modelling or predicting future difficulty levels. Similarly, some of the cryptographic protocols underlying Bitcoin (like Elliptic Curve Digital Signature Algorithm or ECDSA) involve operations with logarithmic complexity. To break it down: - Mining difficulty increases as the network grows more powerful — and the adjustments are made to maintain a consistent block time. - Logarithmic and exponential functions are useful to describe these kinds of non-linear relationships — like how small changes in hash rate can have large impacts on mining performance or difficulty. - In cryptography, discrete logarithms are a fundamental part of the security assumptions underlying public-key cryptographic systems. So while Bitcoin itself isn't based on a logarithmic function, logarithmic thinking is absolutely baked into the mathematics that keep the network secure, balanced, and scarce by design. Want to dive deeper into how the actual difficulty adjustment formula works or how ECDSA uses logarithms?" These last 2 Sentences are the back straps, programmed scarcity. I now go down the mathematical rabbit whole of the ECDSA of various different cryptocurrencies and the models they have implemented, some aiming to replicate Trad Fi economic models and some that create their own independent models of scarcity. I do believe that the BTC having protocol is the best implementation and bulletproof (brick dumb) way of implementing a model that it is the most obvious to society. These models, similar to AI models, are a canvas technology and what you get out of the end result is the sum of all things that are put into building that model. - LLS
Looking good so far. Got through the cloud. Taking profits and wait to see if it gets to 92500 and what it does from there. Volume getting low.
CRYPTOCAP:PEPE has closed above the 50 EMA after reclaiming a key resistance zone, previously acting as support. This breakout is a strong technical signal suggesting a trend reversal may be in play. RSI is climbing and currently sits near 63, indicating increasing buying strength but not yet overbought. If price holds above the reclaimed zone and the 50 EMA, it could trigger a continued move upward toward previous highs. DYOR, NFA
Always trying to keep things simple: Trend if clearly UP and it's not showing sign of weakness so far. So until that changes, I'll be looking to enter a long at a discount. Right now we over extended quite a bit especially on monday 21st during the easter holiday with low volume. And today (22nd) was an eventless day with no important news and while we had a tweet from bessent about china's deal, it wasn't really anything important at all. So given all of that, we could expect a pullback and most likely a bit more of a pullback tomorrow. Now we have two possibilities for the continuation in my opinion. Either the previous week range was the consolidation needed for the price to make the next leg up and we're just gonna tap into that liquidity before moving back up (in which case an entry around the weekly pivot at 1.136, right below the golden zone from last week range to yesterday's highs fib with a great support at the 4H gap at 1.129 on the weekly R1 to limit our risk. Or second option is a deeper retracement back into a much stronger confluence (but also less likely to happen) at the weekly support which happens to coincide with a bit daily FVG, weekly R3 and the golden zone from the fib from before the big impulse up we just had until now: https://www.tradingview.com/x/6ob021lL/ That would take us all the way down to 1.115 (not in a straight line though) which is why I said it's the less likely scenario. That being said, if we were to go down all the way there I would definitely take a stab long at that level for a great risk:reward potential. With those two options on the table I'll just wait for a sign of reversal on the LTF before going in either of those trades but we can see on the 1h chart that the RSI is forming a hidden bullish divergence already so things are looking alright for the first idea. I'll try to post more updates as we get to the entry and see if I take the trade. I want to mention one very important thing in this idea though: those are VERY trying times for any traders, be it in stock, forex, crypto or even investors. It's a fact and bear markets/volatile markets are notoriously hard to navigate. You might have the right idea but get stopped before price going for your target despite using proper SL management at proper levels etc as any news/tweet can take you out in an instant in a news driven environment. What I'm trying to say is: do not trade in the coming days/weeks if you don't have to. Practice, paper trade, have fun with a cheap prop firm challenge to limit the risk to a couple dozen bucks etc. I trade for a living so I have to keep going but it is a lot harder even if you try to trade with the trend and apply the rules that makes you profitable for years. April so far is a red month for me (down about 2.5%), the first red since march of last year, that says a lot. It's fine and I'm not worried, but using proper risk management and knowing when to stay out is just as important as charting and finding out ideas, especially during those times. That's why I'm only down a few thousands instead of blowing up or wiping months of progress. Things will calm down in due time and it will be a lot easier with price respecting levels, not running away at every opportunity and not retesting breakout levels etc etc. Those are much easier time to make a lot of money despite having lower volatility and less pips/day moves. Be patient and consistent, now is not the time to look for new trading strategies, youtube gurus, magical indicators or whatnot! Good luck to you all traders out there!
? VIX – “Liquidity Pool Bounce & Reversal Setup” ? Date: April 22, 2025 ⏰ Multi-Timeframe Analysis (12h, 1D, 1h, 30m, 5m) ? Global Context: The Volatility Index (VIX) is reacting to a clear institutional liquidity zone (blue area) across multiple timeframes (12h, 1D, 1h), aligning with a mean reversion move following the explosive rally earlier this month. We’re seeing multiple signs of a potential bullish reversal: Previous lows + demand zone confluence Multiple CHoCH (Change of Character) events on lower timeframes Implied divergence from equities (not shown here, but inferred) Strong rejection from the institutional block (26.345–26.600) ? Technical Analysis & Justification: ? Wyckoff & Smart Money Concepts (SMC): On 30m and 1h charts, we observe several CHoCH and BOS events suggesting a transition from redistribution into accumulation. The latest bearish move failed to break the weak low zone (26.345), indicating a liquidity grab trap. ? Fibonacci & Moving Averages: Price touched the 78.6%–88.6% retracement from the previous bullish leg. EMAs 8/21 (Orange/Blue) are about to cross bullish on 5m and 30m – a typical trigger for a new impulsive move. EMA200 (White) still hovers above – likely target of the first bullish push. ? Volume Profile (implicit): Most of the recent consolidation occurred in the 27.00–27.40 imbalance zone, which now acts as a magnet for price during retracement. ? Liquidity & Order Flow Concepts: The 26.345–26.600 range served as a Weak Low and was swept clean – classic liquidity trap behavior. ? Trade Parameters: ? Entry (Buy): 26.795 ? Stop-Loss (SL): 26.345 (below last liquidity sweep) ? Take Profit 1 (TP1): 27.390 (inefficiency zone + EMA200) ? Take Profit 2 (TP2): 28.150 (1h/30m order block) ? Risk-Reward Ratio (RR): TP1: ~1.6 TP2: ~3.0 ? Confidence Level: ⭐⭐⭐⭐ (High-probability setup) ? Strategic Summary: This is a classic reversal play based on liquidity absorption and structural shift (CHoCH), supported by multi-timeframe alignment. A bullish engulfing or strong reaction inside the blue zone confirms the entry bias. If price breaks above 27.00 with volume, momentum may carry it towards 28.00+ swiftly. ⚠️ Risk Disclaimer: Trading involves risk. Only trade with capital you can afford to lose. Always manage your exposure wisely. ? What do you think of this setup? Do you see confluence with your strategy? Let’s discuss below! ?
Short to the support on WCTUSD, nice RR, very tight SL.
This scam has so many MOONTARDS invested they are trying to give you as many chances to get out as possible. But the music will stop by next month.
XRP is breaking through the descending resistance. The breakout bar is testing the liquidity zone, but it is not going to turn around yet. Continued assault of 2.186 may lead to a break through consolidation resistance and further growth Scenario: A smooth approach and consolidation in front of 2.186 will increase the chances of resistance breakout and growth. XRP as a whole has positive chances to strengthen to 2.4777
Hello, ?? EUR/CHF: Can PMI Green Shoots Power a Breakout? ? Fundamental Spark: Eurozone PMI Upside? Stronger-than-expected PMIs this week could lift the euro, even against the safe haven Swiss franc. Solid data would suggest the Eurozone economy is weathering trade tensions better than expected. ECB officials (like Wunsch & Villeroy) have pushed back against aggressive rate cut bets, signaling: “The easing cycle is neither finished nor automatic.” ? Key takeaway: Bullish PMIs would reinforce the idea that the ECB may slow down or delay cuts, narrowing the gap vs. the SNB. ? Swiss Franc Watch: CHF is trading near intervention-watch levels as USD/CHF recently hit a 10-year low. SNB might step in if franc strength continues to threaten exports or inflation outlooks. ? EUR/CHF Technical Setup ? Pattern Watch: Ascending Triangle Resistance Zone: 0.9340 – 0.9351 (R1 Pivot Point) Support Line: Steadily rising lows = buyers stepping in ? Momentum Clues: ✅ Bullish candlesticks forming around resistance ✅ 100 SMA > 200 SMA crossover = Bullish bias confirmed ? Upside Targets (If Breakout Holds): Price Level Reason 0.9400 Previous swing high 0.9500 April highs 0.9550 Extended risk-on target ⚖️ Trading Scenario Summary: Scenario Implication EUR/CHF Bias ✅ Strong PMIs + ECB hawkish tone Rate cut bets fade Bullish ⚠️ Weak PMIs + risk-off flows Safe haven CHF demand rises Bearish ? Mixed data Rangebound action Neutral-to-slight bullish ? Final Thoughts: Keep an eye on PMI surprises, ECB rhetoric, and CHF sensitivity to risk and intervention speculation. If EUR/CHF holds above 0.9350 with strong momentum, upside continuation becomes more likely. ? Breakout + Risk-On = Rally Fuel ?? Eurozone Flash PMIs in Focus: Will Tariffs Tip the Scale? ? Event Date: ? April 23 (Wednesday) ⏰ Starting 7:15 am GMT (Use your Forex Market Hours tool to convert!) ? What’s at Stake? As global trade tensions intensify, Germany and France – the eurozone’s powerhouses – are under pressure. With the U.S. floating higher tariffs, markets are watching this PMI release closely for signs of economic fallout. ? PMI Forecast Snapshot: Indicator Forecast Previous Bias ?? Germany Manufacturing PMI 47.5 48.3 ? ?? Germany Services PMI 50.3 50.9 ? ?? France Manufacturing PMI 47.9 48.5 ? ?? France Services PMI 47.6 47.9 ? ?? Euro Area Manufacturing PMI 47.4 48.6 ? ?? Euro Area Services PMI 50.4 51.0 ? ? Readings below 50 signal contraction. ? Above 50 means expansion. ? Why It Matters for EUR Traders Weak PMI prints → ? Euro likely to fall ↳ Could fuel ECB rate cut expectations ↳ Bearish EUR bias vs. GBP, CHF, or JPY Surprise resilience → ? Euro may hold up ↳ Especially vs. commodity currencies in risk-off mode (AUD, NZD, CAD) ↳ Could even bounce vs. USD if greenback selling continues ? What Happened in Past Releases? ? March 24, 2025 ?? & ?? Services = ? Manufacturing = ? ? Cooled ECB rate cut bets EUR dropped early, stabilized later on relief over potential U.S. auto tariff exemptions ? February 21, 2025 PMIs = Net contraction, especially manufacturing EUR dipped amid auto tariff risks and Russia-Ukraine tensions ? January 24, 2025 PMIs beat forecasts (still < 50 though) Trump softened China tariff tone → EUR ? early in session Held gains in risk-on backdrop ? Macro Backdrop Check ? Ongoing global trade war U.S. & China escalate with triple-digit tariffs Markets fear supply chain collapse and global slowdown ? Risk sentiment = fragile If pessimism lingers → ? USD may stay under pressure EUR reaction could be short-lived unless data is decisive ? Trading Scenarios Scenario Implication EUR Bias Weaker-than-expected PMIs Tariff damage confirmed Bearish EUR PMIs beat forecasts Services resilience Limited EUR support Mixed results Choppy, rangebound action Wait for clarity ? Pro tip: EUR often reacts short-term to PMI releases. Strong directional moves typically need uniform results or bigger catalysts (e.g., ECB or Fed news). ?️ Final Tips: Watch the PMI trend across Germany, France, and the Eurozone Consider the bigger macro picture (e.g., U.S. trade policy, China growth) Don’t skip your risk management setup ? Wait for the data, spot the bias, and trade with discipline. ? Good luck out there! The Support and Resistance outlined in green and red are the respective support/resistance for this pair currently for 1M-1Y timeframes! No Nonsense. Just Really Good Market Insights. Leave a Boost TradeWithTheTrend3344
The price is currently at 188.502. There’s a Fibonacci retracement and extension overlay. Key Fib levels (like 1.618, 2.618, 3.618, etc.) are drawn, showing where price might react. It looks like the 2.618 level (188.32) is important right now — price is hovering around it. A red zone (top right) marks the stop-loss area (around 190.764), suggesting the trader expects price not to move above that zone. A green zone lower down marks the take-profit target (around 183.586). Two white arrows show a projected move down — a slight bounce up first, then a continued bearish move. Highlighted green rectangles show previous supply and demand zones — areas where price previously reversed. The large orange circle at the top marks a significant recent high. Summary: The trader is planning a short trade (betting price will fall), expecting a small bounce before a bigger move downward towards the 183.5 area. Want me to break down the trading idea further (like risk/reward, or why those levels might be important)?