1. Bearish Momentum: XAU/USD exhibits signs of downward pressure, signaling a potential sell opportunity. 2. Key Resistance: Gold faces resistance near recent highs, strengthening the bearish outlook. 3. Technical Breakdown: A breach of support levels indicates further downside potential. 4. Fibonacci Retracement: Gold’s retracement aligns with critical bearish Fibonacci levels. 5. RSI Divergence: Overbought conditions suggest a correction is imminent. 6. Fundamental Weakness: Stronger USD and higher yields weigh on gold prices. 7. Geopolitical Factors: Risk aversion may shift focus away from gold. 8. Target Projection: The bearish target is set at $2,900 for the upcoming week. 9. Stop-Loss Strategy: Risk management is essential to navigate volatility. 10. Market Confirmation: Await confirmation signals before entering short positions.
With the successful draw to 22,250 this week, further expectation was placed to the upside with the possibility of all time high draw before rejection but that failed to materialise. Low hanging fruits are important when we are seeing choppy price action over the weekly horizon. $21,532 is a pd array of interest.
Spot - AI narrative play x10x20 x50x100x200 no limit - it might fly to 1$ and above- Long Term This one might cook hard! It is very volatile, so put only money that will not hurt your financial health! It is always possible crash before run with those plays or even permanent losses so be careful! It is a coin with huge upside potential by my opinion, but you never know! DYOR!
Upmove, correction, trendline break, correction, up up up... A good starting point for tat would be the .618 retracement, dont you think? Leave a like and feel free to comment and discuss...
Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Much more neutral again, since we are exactly at the 50% retracement of the recent bull leg. We are in a 4 month trading range and the middle is the worst place to take trades, at least on higher time frames. I do think bears will get follow-through and we will see 21300 or lower next week but we could also have a bounce first. Is this also still a bull trend? Yes. Only below 20600 we are making meaningful lower lows and market would have a chance of testing 20000. If you look at the weekly or monthly chart, there is no doubt that this is still a bull trend until we go below the 2024-08 lows below 17900. These time frames are good to look at on a weekly basis to remind you where we are but your daytrading should not be affected by it too much if at all. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 21000 - 22500 bull case: 22k failed and we went down to the 50% retracement. Bulls just have to buy here or we will go down 300-500 points lower early next week. What are the odds that this was another spike and now we strongly move back up again? That’s the question probably everyone is trying to guess. All previous spikes over the past 2 weeks were bought heavily and this could be as well. I have no opinion on who is likely to win this, so I think it’s 50/50, as it’s probably the best answer, given that we are at the most neutral price again. Targets above are 21950 breakout price, 22000 big round number and then likely the high at 22320 or even 22500 for a new ath. Invalidation is below 21900. bear case: Very strong selling on Friday by the bears. The odds of this happening on an Opex day are low. We are not at the 50% retracement and I have no idea if we get immediate follow-through down or not. Every time I have no bias, I am neutral and expect sideways movement. Since the bears closed the week at the very low, they remain in control until proven otherwise, no matter my neutral stance. If they keep it below the 15m or 1h 20ema, we could just continue down. The next lower targets are 21400 which would close the first gap and then 21200 which is my next bull trend line but that one is a big uncertainty. Below is obviously 21000 and I think the odds are decent we could get there over the course of next week. Invalidation is above 20900. short term: Neutral but if bears keep the bounce very shallow and below the 15m or 1h ema, I lean heavily bearish for 21400 or even 21000. The momentum is clearly on the bear side but given that Friday was Opex and some fishy news came out, I’d rather be neutral going into next week. The high was certainly high enough to qualify as another rejection above 22000 and market is free to test lower or even make new lows. medium-long term - Update from 2024-02-23: Neutral since we are in a 4-5 month trading range. Still leaning heavily bearish for this year but for now it’s sideways until we get consecutive daily closes below 20000. current swing trade: None chart update: Only removed lines and added potential targets for both sides. Only clear pattern right now are the bull wedges on the weekly/monthly chart.
Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: How fitting that the week where I gave up on bearish targets, that we start to see big selling again. Bears certainly surprised with the intensity all of a sudden but it’s the nature of markets that highs get retested. After such a climactic move up, it is not wise to get uber bearish on the first sign of bear strength. Market has moved down very quickly now to important magnets and until they are clearly broken, I will not bet on a breakout below. I stop with the xetra update because I always questioned the decision to do xetra analysis as well. Is this really worth it because of the gaps or are futures just as good? What shattered my case was the futures 23000 touch and strong sell-off. You can not convince me that xetra is more important to most algo’s after this. No more xetra, only futures. If you do not trade futures, calculate the difference between eurex dax futures and your symbol and you are good. It’s not that hard and if it is, hit me up and I explain it to you. current market cycle: Bull trend until consecutive daily closes below 22000 key levels: 22000 - 23000 bull case: Bulls see this is a pull-back in a bull trend, down to obvious support. The last time we dipped to the daily 20ema, we rallied 1800 points afterwards. It’s hard to imagine this going to 24000 but I think it’s more likely than continuous selling through the bull trend line and daily ema and 22000. Too much support and important magnets to not expect a bounce. Targets for the bulls are 22400 and then 22600 which is the 50% of the bear leg and then probably already 23000 again. It’s likely that the market has to move sideways first before we can go higher. Right now we are still in a strong sell-off where the market is not touching the 4h ema on the pull-backs. Invalidation is below 21900. bear case: Bears are in a spike and channel bear trend and until bulls can make higher highs above 22500 again, bears are in full control. Problem for their case is, who is willing to sell at multiple support in hopes of further downside after such a big rally? We will likely get our answer early on Monday. I think bears are absolutely not favored here and will give up quickly if bulls start the week strong. What I do think is that any upside will probably be limited to around 23000. For now I need to see how Globex opens and if we bottom out around 22200 or need to get to 22000 before we can bounce. Below 21900 I think the odds favor a flush down another 800-1000 points. Invalidation is above 23000. short term: Neutral but if bulls show strength, bullish for retest 23000. Problem is that we could go down to 22000 as well and right now I don’t want to risk 300-400 points on longs. Below 21900 this could drop much much lower though. medium-long term from 2024-02-16: As much as I would love to see this 30% lower, it’s not happening anytime soon. Market will probably has to move sideways for some weeks before this could go down. For now it’s still only up. 23000 likely next. current swing trade: None chart update: Highlighted current bull channel.
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Weekly RMV is low indicating its getting ready to go. Nice cheap stock to load up on. Purple Line is likely a low ball target but I'm a trader not a investor. -RMV -sideways PA - Strong upwards weekly PA - Monthly Bullish RSI div - Maybe an Igniting bar + inside day