TI haven't traded currencies in a while as you can see I trade mostly XAUUSD but I do like a few currency pair and EURJPY has always been a favourite! The pair is clearly ranging between ~163.00 and ~161.60. Recent price action swept a local demand area at 162.00-ish and showed an impulsive reaction. The market looks undecided, stuck between lower supports and that upper supply zone. Key Levels Upper Supply: 162.80 - 163.00 (big sell zone, likely liquidity sitting above) Mid-demand: 161.80 - 162.10 (where the reaction happened before market closed. Lower Demand: 161.50 and below (untested zone) Market Bias for Monday: I would personally stay neutral until either Tokyo or London session gives us a proper clue. Scenario A — Bullish: If the market holds above ~162.10 and breaks 162.50 with momentum, I could see a move back to the 162.80 - 163.00 liquidity zone. Even better if there's a liquidity sweep of the 162.20 lows again first (trap + reversal). Scenario B — Bearish: If Monday open with a gap down or quickly rejects around ~162.40 - 162.50, I expect another drive into the 161.80 and possibly deeper into the 161.50 zone. The fact that price left equal lows near 161.80 is suspicious, could be bait for a sweep. Only trade the breakout if it confirms with momentum.
Overview of the Chart This is a EUR/GBP daily chart, showcasing a Double Bottom Pattern, which is a classic bullish reversal formation in technical analysis. The pair has been in a downtrend for several months, but recent price action indicates a potential shift in momentum. The double bottom pattern consists of two distinct lows (Bottom 1 & Bottom 2) at nearly the same level, forming a W-shaped structure. This suggests that sellers attempted to push the price lower twice but failed both times due to strong buying pressure at the support zone. As the price starts to rise from the second bottom, the neckline resistance becomes a crucial level to watch. A confirmed breakout above this neckline would validate the pattern and signal a potential bullish rally. Chart Breakdown & Key Components 1. Double Bottom Pattern Explanation The first bottom formed in December 2024, marking the lowest price point where buyers stepped in. The second bottom formed in March 2025, confirming strong demand in the support zone. The pattern suggests bearish exhaustion, as sellers were unable to push the price lower. The neckline at ~0.84778 acts as a key breakout level. Once price moves above it, the bullish reversal is confirmed. ? Why is this pattern important? It signals a trend reversal from bearish to bullish. It attracts buying interest as traders recognize the formation. The measured move suggests a potential target of 0.87307, aligning with previous resistance levels. 2. Key Support & Resistance Zones ✅ Support Zone (0.82249 - 0.82458) This level has been tested twice, making it a strong demand area. Buyers aggressively defended this zone, preventing further downside. A break below this level would invalidate the bullish setup. ✅ Neckline Resistance (~0.84778) This is the breakout level that confirms the double bottom pattern. A strong bullish daily candle closing above 0.84778 would indicate a trend shift. The price may retest this level after breaking out, offering a second entry opportunity. ✅ Major Resistance & Target Areas 0.86251 → The first major resistance zone, where price may face some selling pressure. 0.87307 → The final target based on the pattern projection, aligning with historical resistance. 3. Trading Setup & Execution Plan ? Entry Strategy (Breakout Confirmation) Enter a buy position after the price breaks and closes above the neckline (~0.84778). A retest of the neckline provides a second chance to enter at a better price. Look for high volume confirmation on the breakout for additional confidence. ? Stop Loss Placement (Risk Management) Place the stop-loss below 0.82249, just under the support zone. This ensures protection against false breakouts. Avoid placing the stop too tight, as price fluctuations can trigger early exits. ? Take Profit Levels (Reward Calculation) First Target: 0.86251 (Intermediate Resistance Level) Final Target: 0.87307 (Measured Move Projection) Partial profits can be taken at 0.86251, while runners target 0.87307. ? Risk-Reward Analysis Entry near 0.84778, stop loss below 0.82249, target at 0.87307. This setup offers a risk-to-reward ratio (R:R) of over 3:1, making it a highly favorable trade. 4. Market Sentiment & Potential Scenarios Bullish Scenario (High Probability) ✅ Price successfully breaks above the neckline at 0.84778. Retests the neckline and holds as new support, leading to strong bullish momentum. Moves toward 0.86251 first, then extends to 0.87307. This scenario aligns with technical confirmation & volume breakout strategy. Bearish Scenario (Low Probability) ❌ Price fails to break the neckline and faces rejection. The pair revisits the support zone (0.82249 - 0.82458) for a third test. If the support breaks, it could invalidate the bullish setup, leading to continued downtrend. 5. Final Thoughts & Summary ? ✅ Pattern Identified → Double Bottom, signaling bullish reversal. ✅ Breakout Level → Watch for confirmation above 0.84778. ✅ Risk Management → Stop loss below 0.82249. ✅ Profit Target → 0.86251 (Partial Profit), 0.87307 (Final Target). ✅ Trade Plan → Buy on breakout, retest entry for better positioning. ? This is a high-probability bullish setup! Watch for breakout confirmation before entering a trade.
March 29, 2025 (Not financial advice) Price was rejected from GB47 ($86,935) — a Mitigation Block. Internal liquidity (ITL) has been swept. Now price is moving toward external targets. Current Outlook: GB29 ($76,157) – This is a Liquidity Void, but it’s also the end of a Goldbach pathway. That means we could see a short-term reaction or pause here. It’s not expected to hold long-term unless momentum shifts, but it’s still a key level to watch. GB11 ($65,660) – If GB29 fails to hold, GB11 becomes the next logical target. It’s a strong Order Block with added confluence from the 1 Standard Deviation (SDVT) level and Fibonacci projection. Summary: Bias: Still bearish Watching for possible reaction at GB29 GB11 is the key support if GB29 gives way Reclaiming GB47 would flip the bias
The pair is rejecting a major supply zone, signaling potential downside movement. A liquidity sweep paired with imbalance zone may have fueled this reversal, and price is now testing lower levels. ? Key Observations: ✔ Supply Zone Rejection: Price reacted strongly from the 151.200–151.500 zone. ✔ Liquidity Grab ($$$): Stops above the highs may have been taken before the sell-off. ✔ Imbalance (IMB) & Demand Zone: The 147.600–147.800 area remains untested and could act as a target. ? Trade Idea: A short position could be considered upon a retracement into the smaller supply zone (150.600–150.900), targeting the demand zone below.
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The pair is currently retesting a strong demand zone, with multiple rejections seen in this area. A Break of Structure (BoS) indicates bullish potential, but price needs to confirm a reversal before a strong upside move. ? Key Observations: ✔ Break of Structure (BoS): Bullish intent was confirmed earlier. ✔ Swing Structure Support (SSS): Holding for now, but a deeper test of demand is possible. ✔ Demand Zone Reaction: If price holds above 0.6270–0.6255, a bullish reversal is likely. ? Trade Idea: Looking for bullish confirmations within the demand zone. A clean rejection could offer long opportunities toward recent highs.