Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Big gap above up to 21500 and decent bullish island gap below down to 19950. My base case is that we will be in a big trading range for a long time but given that the past 2 weeks were one of the wildest and most erratic the stock markets have ever seen, it’s a tough guess. The lower bound is the bull trend line from the covid lows and the upper one from the ath. Does knowing the range 19000 - 22500 help you much with trading? Depends. Try to only go for fading the extremes or on very good momentum. current market cycle: bear trend but very likely that we have seen the lows and have transitioned to a trading range key levels: 19000 - 21500 bull case: Bulls created an island gap to 20300 and if they an keep that open, they can try to poke more at the bear trend line around 21500. So far their only arguments are that they prevent the market from closing below 19500 and above the bull trend line but they need daily closes above 20000. Thu + Fr they tried to make 20300 support but the closes were bearish enough that more bulls will likely wait for lower prices again. The middle of this range is 20350 and that was the most neutral price last week. Invalidation is below 19000. bear case: Bears had to take profits or they were gone very fast last week. Wild up and down with a neutral close into the weekend, maybe slightly more bullish than bearish. Bears are still in control until the bear trend lines are broken. Bears could technically see the last week as a two-legged pull-back to the daily 20ema and the 50% retracement of the current bear trend. Market turned down violently from there and that’s good for the bears. Now they need to close the bull gap down to 20000 and get a daily close below again, since the 3 days where market dropped below it, closed bullish. Invalidation is above 21700. short term: Neutral. Market is in balance at 21350. Bulls need a higher high above 21700 to end this bear trend and bears a daily close below 20000 to show acceptance at these low prices. My base case for next week is that the highs and lows will hold and we continue to contract under 21600 and above 19800. medium-long term from 2024-03-16: Bear trend is ongoing but for now I still think 19500 and below is an amazing buy if you can hold for years. Things will have to turn really bad for this market to find acceptance below the bull trend line from the covid lows and right now this trade war is just front running. Markets were not priced for risk 3 weeks ago but this drop was too much too fast. My bearish targets for this year are met and with the current environment I will not call for lower prices than 19000. If the trade war turns real bad, yeah sure but for now it’s not. current swing trade: Swing shorts above 21000 and swing longs below 19800. chart update: Highlighted gaps and not much else
Gold has been consolidating within a rising wedge pattern since September 2023, facing resistance along a key trendline. Recent geopolitical developments, particularly the intensifying U.S.-China trade tensions, have acted as a catalyst for a significant breakout. The imposition of a 145% tariff on Chinese imports by the U.S., followed by China's retaliatory 125% tariff on U.S. goods, has heightened market uncertainties. These actions have led to a surge in safe-haven demand, propelling gold prices to record highs above $3,200 per ounce In the past three trading sessions, gold has advanced over 2,500 pips, reflecting strong bullish momentum. However, to sustain this upward trajectory towards the $3,400 level, a period of consolidation or a corrective pullback may be necessary. Such a phase would allow for the absorption of selling pressure and the liquidation of short positions, providing a foundation for further gains. The current market dynamics suggest that while buyers are in control, the presence of residual selling interest necessitates caution. A decisive breach above recent highs, accompanied by increased volume and momentum, would confirm the continuation of the bullish trend.\ Should the U.S. implement further tariff relaxations, particularly in sectors like technology, we may witness a retracement in gold prices towards the $3,000 level. This zone aligns with multiple Fair Value Gaps (FVGs) identified between $2,990 and $3,000, suggesting a potential area for price stabilization. Such policy shifts could alleviate some market uncertainties, reducing the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Conversely, if trade negotiations between the U.S. and China remain stalled or further deteriorate, gold could resume its upward momentum, potentially targeting the $3,400 mark. This scenario would be driven by continued safe-haven demand amid escalating geopolitical uncertainties. In summary, gold's near-term movements are contingent upon the progression of U.S.-China trade discussions. Traders should monitor these developments closely, as they will likely dictate gold's direction in the coming sessions.
Hello Traders, This is a weekly chart for Mobile Telecommunications Co Su Arb SJSC. Since 2023 and Zain has constant Dividends. With expectant to improve this year too, It looks like it's ready to the big move next few months. Good Luck for all
Sentiment: Neutral. Dividend yield (4-5%) and debt reduction ($123B) attract income seekers, but telecom competition and tariff fears limit enthusiasm. X posts praise stability, though growth concerns persist. Outlook: Neutral, slightly bullish. Options pin $27, with call buying eyeing $28. ICT/SMT supports $26-$26.50 buys to $27.50-$28 if support holds. Bearish risk below $25 low unless earnings falter. Influential News: --Federal Reserve: Rates unchanged, two 2025 cuts expected, easing debt costs. Liquidity boost mildly positive. --Earnings: Q1 due April 23 (EPS $1.97-$2.07 vs. $2.13). Fiber (28.9M locations) and cash flow (>$16B) could lift if beat. --Chatter: X mixed—stability vs. tariff risks. Analyst focus on earnings revisions. --Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A): Talks to acquire Lumen’s fiber unit ($5.5B+), potentially boosting growth but risking debt concerns. --Other: Tariffs caused volatility; RUS:T stable. Broadband expansion adds value. Indicators: --Weekly: ----RSI: ~45 (neutral). ----Stochastic: ~50 (neutral). ----MFI: ~40 (neutral). ----SMAs: 10-day ~$27.10 (below, bearish), 20-day ~$27.30 (below, bearish). ----Interpretation: Neutral, bearish SMA signals suggest consolidation. --Daily: ----RSI: ~48 (neutral). ----Stochastic: ~55 (neutral). ----MFI: ~45 (neutral). ----SMAs: 10-day ~$27.10 (below, bearish), 20-day ~$27.30 (below, bearish). ----Interpretation: Neutral, bearish SMAs indicate pullback but recovery possible. --Hourly: ----RSI: ~50 (neutral). ----Stochastic: ~60 (neutral). ----MFI: ~50 (neutral). ----SMAs: 10-day ~$27.10 (below, bearish), 20-day ~$27.30 (below, bearish). ----Interpretation: Neutral, mildly bullish momentum. Price Context: $26.79 (April 11 close), 1M: -6%, 1Y: +59%. Range $25-$29, holding $26 support amid tariff concerns. Options Positioning (May 2025): -Volume: ----Calls: $27 (3,500, 60% ask = buying), $28 (2,500, 55% ask). Bullish bets on $27-$28. ---Puts: $25 (2,000, 70% bid = selling), $26 (1,500, 65% bid). $25 put selling supports $26 floor. -Open Interest: ---Calls: $27 (10,000, +2,000 = buying), $28 (7,000, +1,500). Institutional bullishness. ---Puts: $25 (4,000, flat), $26 (6,000, +1,000). Hedging, not bearish. Put-call ~0.9. -IV Skew: ---Calls: $27 (25%), $28 (27%, up 2%). $28 IV rise shows $28+ speculation. ---Puts: $25 (22%, down 1%), $26 (24%). Falling $25 IV reinforces $26 support. -Probability: 60% $25-$28, 20% >$29. Karsan’s Interpretation: ---Vanna: Neutral (~50k shares/1% IV). Stable IV limits flows; earnings IV spike could push $27.50. ---Charm: Neutral (~20k shares/day). Pins $27. ---GEX: +20,000. Dealers sell $28, buy $26, holding range. ---DEX: +1M shares, neutral. ---Karsan view: GEX pins $26-$28; catalyst needed. ICT/SMT Analysis: --Weekly: Neutral, $25 support, $29 resistance. No $T/ NYSE:VZ divergence (~$43 NYSE:VZ ). --Daily: Bullish at $26 FVG, targets $28. Bearish < $26. --1-Hour: Bullish >$26.50, $27.50 target. MSS at $26.50. --10-Minute: OTE ($26.69-$26.80, $26.73) for buys, NY AM (8:30-11:00 AM). Trade Idea: ---Bullish: 60%. ICT/SMT buys $26-$26.50 to $27.50-$28 (OTE $26.73). Options favor $27-$28 calls. Earnings, M&A, Fed cuts support. ---Neutral: 30%. RSI (~45), SMAs (bearish), $25-$29 range, balanced options (put-call ~0.9). ---Bearish: 10%. Below $25 needs earnings miss. Low $25 put volume.
Our analysis is based on multi-timeframe top-down analysis & fundamental analysis. Based on our view the price will fall to the monthly level. DISCLAIMER: This analysis can change anytime without notice and is only for assisting traders in making independent investment decisions. Please note that this is a prediction, and I have no reason to act on it, and neither should you. Please support our analysis with a like or comment!
In this video, we will analyze the S&P 500, NASDAQ, and DOW JONES futures for the week of April 14-18th. The Stock Market Indices ended a turbulent week on a bullish note, and next week could see some continuation. The markets have peeked above the consolidation, and could be on the way to resume the overall bullish trend. Wait for confirmations of the trend before jumping in! One bad report of tariffs or geo-political news can turn the markets down at any time. Enjoy! May profits be upon you. Leave any questions or comments in the comment section. I appreciate any feedback from my viewers! Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis. Thank you so much! Disclaimer: I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
Is the crypto market cap poised for a final euphoric rally to $4.6T by December 2025, or are we backtesting resistance before a brutal drop to $1.3T by January 2026? My analysis, based on major trend lines, Elliott Wave patterns, and historical price action, suggests both scenarios are in play. Let’s break it down. Bullish Scenario: $4.6T by Dec 2025 The total market cap is riding an ascending channel from the 2022 lows (~$800B). My trend lines show resistance at $3T-$3.5T, where we’re currently testing. Historical cycles (2017, 2021) often end with an extended 5th wave, driven by altcoin mania and institutional FOMO. If we break $3.5T, the next Fibonacci extension (1.618) targets ~$4.6T, aligning with Q4 seasonality (crypto’s strongest quarter). Key support at $2.5T must hold for this to play out. A Bitcoin breakout above $100K or Ethereum hitting $5K could fuel this rally, with DeFi and Layer-2 tokens adding juice. Risk: Overbought conditions could cap the move early—watch for RSI divergence at resistance. Bearish Scenario: $1.3T by Jan 2026 Alternatively, my wave count suggests we’re in a corrective wave 2, backtesting $3T resistance after wave 1 peaked. If rejected here, wave 3 could drive a steep correction to $1.3T, a 0.618 Fibonacci retracement and prior support from mid-2023. Historical bear markets (2018: -88%, 2022: -73%) show crypto’s vulnerability post-peak. My trend lines mark $1.5T-$2T as interim support, but a macro shock—rising yields, regulation, or recession—could push us lower. Timing Risk: Jan 2026 is aggressive; a bottom might extend to Q2 2026 absent a clear catalyst. Why These Levels? Trend Lines: The ascending channel and $3T resistance are clear on the weekly chart. A break above confirms bullish momentum; rejection signals bearish reversal. Historical Action: Past cycles show parabolic tops followed by 50-80% corrections. $4.6T fits euphoria; $1.3T fits pain. Patterns: Elliott Waves align with my markings—wave 5 for bulls, wave 3 for bears. The $1.3T level matches the 200-week MA, a cycle bottom indicator. What to Watch: Bullish Confirmation: Break above $3.5T with volume; Bitcoin holding $80K+. Bearish Confirmation: Rejection at $3T, break below $2.5T support. Invalidation: Bullish case fails below $2T; bearish case fails above $4T. This isn’t a prediction but a map of possibilities. My drawings highlight the levels and patterns guiding my view—check them on the chart. What do you think—bullish blow-off or bearish breakdown? Let’s discuss!
This week, the Japanese yen made a remarkable performance in the foreign exchange market. The USD/JPY exchange rate started with a significant decline. Reaching a high on Monday, it then trended downwards and hit a low of 142.050 during the week. By Friday, it closed at 143.486, registering a weekly drop of around 1.35%. In the context of surging market risk - averse sentiment, the yen became a much - sought - after asset. Although its appreciation against the US dollar was relatively moderate, its volatility increased substantially. This sharp rise in volatility clearly shows that the market's appetite for the yen as a safe - haven currency has grown rapidly. The ongoing Russia - Ukraine conflict remains a major source of uncertainty in the global financial arena. Coupled with tariff - related discussions and potential trade - policy changes, these factors have further enhanced the yen's attractiveness as a safe - haven. Additionally, the US dollar index has dropped to a two - year low. This decline has relieved the downward pressure on the USD/JPY exchange rate, enabling the yen to gain some ground. The yen's strength this week mainly stems from the weakness of the US dollar and the influx of risk - averse capital. Looking ahead in the short - term, the USD/JPY exchange rate is expected to test the 143.00 level. The Russia - Ukraine situation and persistent trade uncertainties will likely continue to support the yen. Moreover, the market's close attention to the Bank of Japan's monetary policies may exacerbate the yen's volatility. The bullish momentum of the yen is steadily accumulating. If the US dollar continues to be under pressure, there is a high probability that the USD/JPY exchange rate could decline towards 142.00. However, it should be noted that currency markets are highly complex and prone to sudden reversals. Even though the current trends indicate continued strengthening of the yen, unforeseen geopolitical events or shifts in central - bank policies could quickly change the market situation. Investment itself doesn't carry risks; it's only when investment is out of control that risks arise. When trading, always remember not to act on impulse. I will share trading signals every day. All the signals have been accurate without any mistakes for a whole month. No matter what gains or losses you've had in the past, with my help, you have the hope of achieving a breakthrough in your investment. Traders, if this concept fits your style or you have insights, comment! I'm keen to hear.
? Technical Analysis (Short-Term): Gold is in a strong uptrend. Key resistance at $3250; breakout targets $3275+. Support at $3215; a break below may lead to $3190–$3200. Indicators (RSI & MACD) show strong momentum but slight pullback risk. ? Fundamental Analysis: Weak USD and expectations of Fed rate cuts support gold. Global trade tensions increase safe haven demand. Central banks and ETFs continue to accumulate gold. ? Sentiment Analysis: Market is buying dips aggressively. Confidence is high due to macro uncertainty. Traders are watching $3250 breakout as a trigger for further upside.
Hello Traders, It looks like the correction done and we will start big move. I hope that, it will affect lots of stocks that I prefer. Good Looks for you all.