I know everyone is fearful in the crypto market right now. People are scared to buy at these lows because they believe Bitcoin will likely continue to decline. And yes, that could happen. But guess what? BTC is sitting on daily support. BTC dominance hit 60% and is possibly forming lower highs (check my BTC DOM analysis). The Fear Index is at 54—people are scared. Funding rates are extremely negative. Most assets' RSI levels are oversold (in a bull market!). All these factors tell me it’s the perfect time to open swing long positions while everyone else is panicking and selling their coins at the lows. All these factors tell me it’s the perfect time to open swing long positions while everyone else is panicking and selling their coins at the lows. Let’s look CAKE as an example: Cake has currently hit the monthly and weekly demand zones. It has rejected the weekly demand and broken the 4H structure. We’ve seen strong upside movement following this, confirming the second leg of the higher high formation on the 4H timeframe. TARGETS: TP1: $3.41 TP2: $4.02 TP3: $4.50 SL: Below $2.05 (daily close)
CRYPTOCAP:ETH is showing strong signs of an impending breakout to the $6.4k–$8k range, backed by two key technical indicators: Cup & Handle Formation: ETH has recently broken out of a textbook cup and handle pattern, confirming the breakout with a solid retest over this past week of VOL. This is a classic bullish signal pointing to higher targets. Bull Pennant: Since the 2021 rally, ETH has been consolidating within a massive bull pennant. This long-term structure suggests Ethereum is coiled and ready for a significant move upward. 1.618 Fib: Also layering in a Fibonacci retrace, if ETH is indeed heading for ATHs and price discovery, the 1.618 FIB is a common level that traders are very familiar with. It just so happens to be right in the middle of our target box at ~$7k! Momentum is building— we will need to keep an eye on volume and follow-through for confirmation. To boot, bearish sentiment for ETH is near all time highs. I think it might be time for a most-hated rally. I have a short term allocation in AMEX:ETHT to ride this momentum, NFA DYOR
1. **BTC.D Drops → Altcoins Rise**: - BTC.D measures Bitcoin's market share relative to the entire cryptocurrency market. A falling BTC.D typically means capital is flowing from Bitcoin into altcoins, signaling increased altcoin strength. 2. **Recent BTC.D Context**: - The **rejection at 59.23% resistance** and breakdown below support (57.48%) indicate Bitcoin dominance is weakening. This often coincides with: - A **rotation into altcoins**, as traders seek higher ROI opportunities. - Altcoin outperformance during periods of bullish market sentiment or when Bitcoin consolidates. 3. **Supporting Indicators**: - **Volume Shift**: Rising altcoin volume (lower BTC.D) is a common precursor to an altcoin rally. - **RSI & CMF on BTC.D**: Weak momentum and capital inflow into altcoins align with BTC.D's bearish setup. 4. **Scenarios**: - **Altcoin Rally Catalyst**: If BTC.D continues breaking down, altcoins could capitalize, especially large-cap alts. - **Key Levels to Watch**: BTC.D support at 56.00%. If breached, altcoin dominance may rise sharply. Summary The current BTC.D setup hints at an ongoing **altcoin season** if dominance continues falling, provided overall market sentiment remains bullish.
At this point, it’s already possible to see the structures the market operates within, specifically the influence of major market participants: how they accumulate liquidity and set the market trend. Everything follows a pattern: a long 6–8 month consolidation → 1st wave of growth → redistribution + liquidity collection above and below → 2nd wave of growth → another long consolidation → repeat. This generally fits logically into the framework of this cycle, both in structure and timing. The main target of this cycle — $140,000 — has not yet been reached. The market almost never exits an accumulation phase with just one growth wave. There’s a high probability that this will repeat once more: a second wave of growth to $140,000, followed by a six-month range until the end of summer, possibly in the form of an ascending structure, such as a wedge, potentially even reaching $173,000. During this time, there will be distribution. This will take a while since big players need time to exit via retail. Selling to retail is most effective when there’s hype in the market. Exits may also occur through altcoins, as has happened before. Therefore, there’s still a chance that altcoins will surge during this period, creating the biggest market hype. Just some market thoughts for now. Let’s keep observing. DYOR.
CRYPTOCAP:ETH nice move! It printed a HL which is bullish. Can it go inside that range and break through the +/—$3542.90 key level? Full send after a clean breakout.
Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr dax futures - Neutral. Bears defended the Globex gap and market stayed below the lower bear trend line, which we broke below on Thursday. Very good for the bears but since we opened and closed near Friday’s close, market is in balance for now. Bears need to break below 20000 and bulls above 20150. Clear support and resistance, so play the range or wait for a breakout. comment: Let’s try not to extrapolate more from today’s price action than there was. Open was 40 points below Friday’s close and US session closed 10 points above the EU open. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 19800 - 20200 bull case: Bulls stopped the selling near the 50% retracement of Friday’s bull leg. Until they get a 1h bar close above 20150, the market is as neutral as it gets. Above 20150 there probably won’t be any resistance until 20250ish or even 20300. Invalidation is below 19970. bear case: Bears have going for them that they kept it below the channel we broke below from and below Friday’s high, which means we have an open Globex gap. Problem they have is that they tried 3 times to get below 19990 today and failed. Now market has made two credible higher lows and bears can not hold short once we get above 20140. Invalidation is above 20140. short term: Neutral around 20050. Very bullish above 20150 and bearish only below 19980. medium-long term from 2024-12-22: Any short near 20000 is reasonable if you can hold for another 1000 points higher. 17000 is much more likely than 21000 though. My first target for the next months is 19000, followed by 17700ish and ultimately down to 16000-16300 in 2025. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Selling 20060 and buying 20000 was good for much more trades than you should take.
Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr sp500 e-mini futures - Neutral. We stayed below Friday’s high but bulls had a really bullish close. Until they get a strong move above 6050, I lean neutral. Above 6050 there is no more resistance until 6100. Bears something below 5965 but for now they could be very happy with any daily close below 6000. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 5950 - 6050 bull case: Very strong close by the bulls. Year end rally is on if they get follow through above 6050 tomorrow. A measured move up from Friday’s rally would bring us 6230+. For now we have a clear bull wedge which leads perfectly to 6100 tomorrow. Invalidation is below 5800. bear case: Bears did ok until the breakout above 6030. Now they have a do or die moment again to keep the market below 6050 or they need to cover because market could go all the way up to 6200 or higher. Invalidation is above 6050. short term: Neutral. Very bullish close but bulls need follow through above 6050 tomorrow. If they get it, we probably won’t stop until 6100 or higher. Market is in balance around 6000. medium-long term - Update from 2024-12-22: Ultimately 5200-5300 in 2025. Again, rough guess as of now and since we have not seen a strong first bear leg, these targets are the lowest I am willing to give an honest outlook about. If bears surprise and we see a huge leg down to 5500, we will go much lower for the second and third leg. current swing trade: Nope trade of the day: Selling 6030 before EU open and buying 5985 because of the head & shoulders bottom (head was the low 5965) after US open on the 5m tf.
Sell-Side FVG could mean we might go down to reach the lower. The week started off with a subtle nudge of last week's low on Friday, this could mean we keep breaking higher on the subsequent day candle's high. The numbers marked are hotspot joint that might be expected for candle reactions or liquidity spots. It might well be sell-side or buy-side. This is a narrative, not a trading advice ( DYOA ) (Do Your Own Analysis).
This count is based on my assumptions so anything can happen not a trading or financial advice just for educational purposes only kindly do your own ta thanks trade with care good luck.
In low liquidity, the EURZAR has broken the downtrend with regression break back into consolidation. I will not take this trade.