Hey guys, I see XAU potentially push up to take the liquidity sweep high during London Session today if the body candle close above 2618.94 with a confirmation and retest in a lower time frame we are heading up to 2633. It's Christmas Season, volume can be little low than the usual. Trade smart, Trade Safe. Merry Christmas!! FXOPEN:XAUUSD
BTC: is facing a short-term decline, after the decline comes an opportunity (new rising wave). btc price drop: 82k. This is a wave pattern scenario with BTC.
USD/CAD is falling towards a multi-swing-low support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher. Buy entry is at 1.4350 which is a multi-swing-low support that aligns close to a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Stop loss is at 1.4290 which is a level that sits underneath a pullback support. Take profit is at 1.4430 which is a multi-swing-high resistance. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com/uk): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 64% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (www.fxcm.com/eu): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com/au): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com/au Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com/markets): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
NASDAQ:AMD AMD is currently showing a solid pullback from its all-time high (ATH), with shares trading around $124. While $120 looks like a strong entry point, there’s potential for the stock to dip further, possibly hitting $100. Time will tell if it reaches that level. Under the leadership of CEO Lisa Su, AMD has evolved into one of the top semiconductor giants, making impressive gains in both CPU market share and stock value in recent years. With a rapidly expanding footprint in the AI chip market, the company is well-positioned for future growth. My 2025 price target for AMD is approximately $250, driven by its continued innovation and strong market dynamics.
The pair has been gravitating between 2.2050 - 2.2420 and came down sharply from those high levels. it is extremely overbought, and GANN resistance seems clear. the support lower is 2.1700s which will be attracted overtime. Strategy SELL between 2.2090 - 2.2150 and take profit near 2.1835 for now. note: it is a medium-term view.
Technical Indicators Breakdown Relative Strength Index (RSI): At 24.99, the RSI confirms oversold conditions, hinting at a possible short-term reversal. Historically, RSI below 30 often precedes upward corrections, but confirmation from price action is crucial. Stochastic Oscillator (%K and %D): With %K at 4.66, APD's stochastic oscillator is in extreme oversold territory. A crossover between %K and %D could act as the first signal for a potential upward move. Moving Averages: 200-Day SMA: Currently at $277.53, this level provides critical support. Shorter Averages: 10, 20, and 50-day moving averages are trending downward, signaling persistent bearish momentum. Pivot Points: Immediate Resistance (R1): $324.19. Support Levels: Closest support lies at $289.59 (S2 on Fibonacci pivot), followed by a deeper support at $254.98. Volume & Momentum: Recent volume indicates decreasing selling pressure, suggesting a possible exhaustion of the downtrend. However, momentum remains negative (-23.07), so bulls need to wait for a confirmed reversal. Trade Strategy 1. Long Scenario: Trigger: Go long if the price breaks above $300, a psychological level coinciding with the 9-day Hull Moving Average at $289.83. Target 1: $318 (50-day SMA). Target 2: $345 (R2 Fibonacci Pivot). Stop Loss: Place a stop-loss at $277 to limit downside risk. 2. Short Scenario: Trigger: Short if the price closes below $290, breaching the Fibonacci pivot support. Target 1: $277 (200-day SMA). Target 2: $254 (S3 on Pivot Levels). Stop Loss: Use $305 as a stop-loss to minimize losses in case of a false breakdown. Price Prediction Bullish Case: If APD can reclaim $300 and sustain buying momentum, expect a recovery toward $352.95 (+20.23%) over the next 6-12 months, with upside potentially stretching to $395.00 (+34.56%) if broader market conditions turn favorable. Bearish Case: Failure to hold above $290 could trigger a deeper correction to $254, representing a downside of nearly 15%. Final Verdict While APD appears ripe for a short-term bounce, the overall bearish sentiment and downward trend require traders to tread cautiously. Conservative traders may prefer to wait for a confirmed break above $300 before initiating long positions. Conversely, aggressive traders might capitalize on a breakdown below $290 for short-term gains. Stay vigilant about upcoming earnings and macroeconomic events that could shift momentum.
So the end of BTC will be at the end of January 2025 The end of CRYPTO BULL RUN will be between MARCH - JULY 2025 The best dates for ALL IN will be on the GREEN LINE, but you better wait for update before buying
We are seeing a similar pattern to the 2020-2021 bull run, but this time under different circumstances and with Bitcoin at a much higher price. Over the years, Bitcoin has significantly outperformed benchmarks like the S&P 500, which continues to attract both institutional and retail investors. Previously, we experienced a correction from $60K to $30K. Now, we’re observing a correction from approximately $100K to $50K. These are rough estimates, but the trend appears consistent. In my opinion, based on the past eight years of observing Bitcoin charts (though not daily), the market often feels manipulated. This is likely due to Bitcoin’s relatively smaller market cap compared to other asset classes like stocks, forex, or mega-cap stocks (e.g., FAANGM). Recently, we faced rejection from a falling wedge pattern on the ES, which is bearish. I had hoped that lower VIX levels would encourage portfolio managers to re-enter the market, but with the stock market holiday on Wednesday, the 25th, I anticipated heightened volatility and an additional correction of approximately 8-10%. I’m aware that hedge funds are engaging in “window dressing” as the year ends. Portfolio managers are likely to remain passive, avoiding risky trades that could jeopardize their year-end bonuses. As a result, we can expect a quieter market from their side. Along the way, we may see some “dead cat bounces,” but there’s no need to worry. I had hoped Bitcoin would maintain its upward trajectory, but putting emotions aside and analyzing objectively: VWAP is significantly below the current price. Fibonacci retracement suggests further downside. Awesome Oscillator (AO) and RSI indicate bearish momentum. Money flow is negative. A significant short wall has formed, and many positions have already been liquidated . Based on this, it seems likely that we’ll continue moving downward. I’ve included two additional charts in the comments below for further insights.
There is the option we get one more leg down, but I wouldn't count on it. We are just touching the 50 Day MA and local support, with RSI having nicely reset and looking to move up again. Momentum is still Bullish.
When it comes to trading, my priority is always to protect my capital. If I have doubts, I don’t hesitate to step out of the market. As anyone in crypto knows, this space is notorious for wiping out gains quickly, and my focus is on preserving mine. That said, today’s price action gave me the confirmation I needed to re-enter Gala and turn bullish on the altcoin market. Before diving into the factors that shifted my outlook, let’s revisit the concerns that initially kept me out: Bitcoin’s bearish outlook: I feared it could drag down Gala and other altcoins. Bitcoin dominance potentially invalidating my 0.618 Fibonacci theory. High stochastic RSI on the weekly chart with a bearish crossover. Now, let’s break down how today’s developments allowed me to rationalize these concerns and form a bullish bias for Gala and altcoins. I’ll also share additional confluence factors at the end. 1. Bitcoin’s Bearish Outlook: Will It Drag Down Gala and Alts? Today I posted a detailed analysis on 'BTC Dominance' (please check it out for more context), but here’s a summary: In 2021, Bitcoin experienced a similar scenario, leading to a 31% correction. My outlook on Bitcoin remains bearish in the short term, but today’s price action made me consider a key question: How did altcoins react when Bitcoin dropped 31% in 2021? Interestingly, during that period, the total market cap of altcoins expanded. This makes sense because funds tend to flow out of Bitcoin into altcoins, explaining why alts can rally even as Bitcoin corrects. We saw a similar dynamic today when Bitcoin dropped to GETTEX:92K with almost no impact on altcoins. This suggests a potential decoupling between BTC and ALTS, which reduces my concerns about Bitcoin dragging down the market. 2. Bitcoin Dominance: Does It Invalidate the 0.618 Fib Theory? In November, Bitcoin dominance rejected at the 0.618 Fibonacci level, much like it did in 2021, signaling the start of an alt season. Recently, however, dominance surged upward, leading to a temporary altcoin pullback. My concern was that if dominance surpassed 0.618, it would invalidate the theory. Today, dominance took a sharp dive, which has significantly strengthened my confidence in the bullish case for altcoins. This price action supports the idea that we are indeed on the verge of an alt season. 3. High Stochastic RSI on the Weekly Chart: A Lingering Concern To be fair, the stochastic RSI on the weekly chart remains elevated for most altcoins, with a bearish crossover. However, recent market movements have caused it to come down slightly. While this isn’t ideal this is my only lingering point. The monthly and daily charts show a bullish stochastic RSI, which offsets some of my concerns. Admittedly, this is the one area where I wish conditions were slightly more favorable, but it doesn’t outweigh the stronger bullish signals elsewhere. For example, the Stochastic RSI is bearish on BTC Dominance which supports a Bullish Stochastic RSI on Gala. Final Thoughts With these concerns addressed—or at least rationalized—I feel more confident about re-entering the market. While no setup is ever perfect, today’s developments have reduced my hesitation and strengthened my bullish case for Gala and altcoins. Let’s see where this market takes us! ? What Next I will hold my trade for the entirety of Wave 3, for those that are not aware each wave consists of 5 impulses I won't be trading the swings. I will be however looking for the top of Wave 3 to exit but I can't imaging that will be for a few weeks yet. Instead, I will monitor prices at key level's which are as follows - 1. Confirmation of Wave 3 when price breaks 0.066% 2. My first price target is between $0.11402 - $0.13126. I will provide price updates at those points.