The pair is slowly showing negative movement, and we are witnessing MACD going into RED. We are still overbought. I see good chance to see a test of 2.0200 short-term. Strategy SELL @ 2.0560-2.0600 and take profit near 2.0287 for now.
## *Pattern Identified:* 1. *Descending Trendline / Bearish Structure* - The market is in a *downtrend, confirmed by the **Bearish Trendline* (marked in black). - *Lower highs and lower lows* suggest continued bearish momentum. 2. *Bear Flag Pattern* (Near the current price area) - A *small consolidation within a downward trend*, indicating a possible continuation to the downside. - The projected move shows a potential *further decline* if the price breaks below the flag. 3. *Break of Structure (BOS)* - Seen multiple times, confirming the shift to a bearish market. - BOS indicates strong selling pressure as previous *support levels fail*. 4. *Order Blocks (OB) & Fair Value Gaps (FVG)* - *OB (Order Blocks)*: Marked in green and gray, showing areas of institutional interest. - *FVG (Fair Value Gap)*: Highlighted in beige, indicating areas where price may return before continuing downward. 5. *Consolidation Area* - A *sideways range* where price moved before breaking down further. - Acts as a key area of liquidity before major movements. 6. *BSL (Buy Side Liquidity)* - Marked near the lower part of the chart, indicating potential *stop-loss hunts* before a further drop. ### *Conclusion:* - The market remains *bearish, with potential **further downside* after the minor consolidation. - A *break below the bear flag* could push the price *toward $1,600 or lower*. - If price *retraces, it may revisit the **OB/FVG area* before resuming the downtrend. Would you like a more detailed breakdown of any specific part?
SMH (VanEck Semiconductor ETF) Analysis & Prediction (March 14, 2025) ⸻ 1. Key Observations from the Chart ✅ Major Trendline Break • SMH has broken below its long-term rising trendline (yellow), indicating a shift from a bullish trend to a corrective phase. • The last time a similar break happened, a deeper correction followed before stabilizing. ✅ Key Support & Resistance Levels • Resistance Levels (Upside Targets) • $222.79 - $231.15 → Former support, now resistance zone. • $237.13 → Stronger resistance, where price previously rejected. • $242.32 → Major resistance, unlikely to be tested soon unless momentum shifts bullish. • Support Levels (Downside Risks) • $219.55 → Current support being tested. If it breaks, expect more downside. • $213.57 → Next key support level. • Below $213.57, further downside to ~$200 could be likely. ✅ Moving Averages Acting as Resistance • The 200-day EMA was broken & rejected, a strong bearish signal. ⸻ 2. Trend Analysis & Chart Patterns • Trend Breakdown: The long-term uptrend is broken, and price is trading under major EMAs. • Bearish Continuation Likely: If SMH fails to reclaim resistance, it could fall toward $213.57 or lower. ⸻ 3. Indicator Analysis ? Stochastic RSI (Momentum Indicator - Middle Panel) • Currently at 38.96, showing some attempt at stabilization but no confirmed bullish crossover. • Could still move lower before a true oversold bounce. ? MACD (Trend & Momentum - Bottom Panel) • Bearish MACD Cross Confirmed → MACD histogram turning deeply negative, showing strong downside momentum. • No signs of reversal yet. ⸻ 4. Prediction for Tomorrow (March 14, 2025) ? Bullish Scenario (If SMH Holds $219.55 & Reclaims $222.79) • Trigger: If SMH bounces off $219.55 and breaks $222.79 • Target 1: $231.15 • Target 2: $237.13 • Probability: Medium (needs strong buying volume). ? Bearish Scenario (If SMH Breaks Below $219.55 & Momentum Continues) • Trigger: If SMH falls under $219.55 and stays below • Target 1: $213.57 • Target 2: $200.00 (if selling accelerates) • Probability: High (Trend & momentum indicators suggest further downside). ⸻ Options Trading Strategies for SMH ? Bullish Trade Ideas (If SMH Holds $219.55 & Breaks Above $222.79) 1. 0DTE Call Option (High Risk, High Reward) • Buy SMH $225 Call (Exp. 3/14) • Entry: If SMH breaks above $222.79 and holds • Exit Target: $231.15 • Stop-Loss: If SMH falls back below $219. 2. Bull Call Spread (Lower Risk) • Buy SMH $220 Call (Exp. 3/14) • Sell SMH $230 Call (Exp. 3/14) • Max Profit if SMH closes above $230 3. Sell a Bull Put Spread (Credit Strategy) • Sell SMH $220 Put • Buy SMH $215 Put • Profit if SMH stays above $220 ⸻ ? Bearish Trade Ideas (If SMH Breaks Below $219.55 & Moves Toward $213.57) 1. 0DTE Put Option (High Risk, High Reward) • Buy SMH $215 Put (Exp. 3/14) • Entry: If SMH breaks below $219.55 • Exit Target: $213.57 • Stop-Loss: If SMH reclaims $222. 2. Bear Put Spread (Safer Play) • Buy SMH $220 Put (Exp. 3/14) • Sell SMH $210 Put (Exp. 3/14) • Max Profit if SMH closes below $210 3. Sell a Bear Call Spread (Credit Strategy) • Sell SMH $230 Call • Buy SMH $235 Call • Profit if SMH stays below $230 ⸻ 5. Conclusion: How to Trade SMH Tomorrow? • If SMH Holds $219.55 & Reclaims $222.79 → Go Long with Calls or Bullish Spreads • If SMH Breaks Below $219.55 → Go Short with Puts or Bearish Spreads • If Uncertain or Choppy → Iron Condor or Stay Out
Price continues to maintain a bullish momentum as recently had a price fallback to a pullback support of 0.62717 a buy opportunity is envisaged from the current market Price. Our target profit is at 0.63575
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The pair remains very overbought, and considering most indicators, the pair has the potential to move back towards 1.8300 short-term. Strategy SELL or ADD @ 1.8660-1.8700 and take profit near 1.8367 for now.
Hey traders! It's the last trading day of the week, so let's dive into some analysis on this pair. We can see that price has grabbed liquidity on both the upside and downside. At the top, a new supply zone has formed, sweeping liquidity from the previous supply zone. On the flip side, there's also a demand zone where liquidity has been collected. Right now, we’ve got internal liquidity on both sides, making this a solid area to look for trade opportunities. Aim for a 1:3 to 1:5 risk-to-reward ratio—stay disciplined and don't get greedy! Risk management is key. Wishing you all a profitable day and a great weekend—use it to refine your analysis and come back stronger next week! ?? Happy trading! ?
As a more precise short entry here is my trade that I am going to play today. Please trade carefully. My trade is already active based on the attached analysis.
Since reaching a low around 155 at the beginning of August, EUR/JPY has been trading within a defined range. Earlier this March, the pair once again tested the lower boundary of this range and, as before, rebounded strongly. A higher low was established at the start of this week, suggesting that 159 may now serve as a new base of support. In my view, EUR/JPY is likely to continue its upward trajectory, and a move toward 165 could materialize in the near future. Conclusion: Pullbacks toward the 160 area should be considered potential buying opportunities. With a stop-loss set around 158 and a target at 165, this setup offers an attractive risk-to-reward ratio of approximately 1:2.5. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analyses and educational articles.
Eigentlich eine gute Reaktion von Asien! Jetzt wird es wichtig das wir schnell die EMAS mit ordentlich Volumen hinter uns lassen. Sollten wir hier wieder scheitern, dann gehts erstmal noch einen Step weiter runter. Aktuell Frage ich mich allerdings wo das Momentum herkommen soll? Primär gehe ich immernoch davon aus das wir nochmal in die Regionen 68-77K abtauchen um auch den letzten Bullen aus dem Markt zu schwemmen bevor es dann eine starke Gegenreaktion gibt! Wie immer kann es aber auch sein das wir direkt die Reise nach Norden antreten, dann muss aber das Momentum drehen, das sehe ich aktuell noch nicht! CRYPTOCAP:BTC #bitcoin #btc