I make no claim to know where Bitcoin is headed. All I know is my opinion on it, and my feelings about cryptocurrencies in general, especially how they've evolved over the years. My sense continues to tell me that things are very wrong with crypto, and that eventually it's going to fade into the uncomfortable past, a kind of failed experiment. Back in 2022, I thought that if it gets bigger and bigger, it's a general symptom of wealth concentration, exploitation, and mass delusion. I don't think this technology is beneficial to society, as it extracts both attention and resources from its participants. Unless, of course, you can manage to be one of those who profits and then turns their profits into material wealth and/or positive change. Looking at my own personal timeline for my sentiment about crypto, let's see how I ended up here: November, 2017 : I am out of college for over a year now. I've been working a tough sales job for a year and I'm beginning to get burned out. I hear about Bitcoin from a friend. "if you buy in at $10K, sell at $20k and double your money." I then learn about Bitcoin and think, well, things are pretty bleak in the world right now. I don't know what I'm doing with my life. What if the banks collapse and I'm left with nothing? Bitcoin seems like a viable alternative. I buy out of fear, around $13.8k. Then, I see my value go up. Greed takes over. I go down a rabbit hole, learning about altcoins such as XRP, XLM, and LTC. Even XRB, which later becomes Nano. What if any of these becomes the next Bitcoin? January, 2018: I think that I should have just cashed out. I must have bought the top. But, what if it all comes back even stronger? I could be rich. I pull out part of my initial investment and watch the rest continue to spiral downwards. I quit my job out of burnout. May, 2018: Bitcoin continues to make lower highs. I start working that crazy sales job again part-time, as I need the money while the bear market persists. December, 2018: All hope seems lost. I quit my sales job, again out of burnout and deciding I don't want to do this the rest of my life. I'm 25 years old. Then, I decide to look for reasons price might go up again, which would also then save me from having to go back to work again. I could just be an artist full time. I get into TA, thinking that it's kind of like art. Instead of working on my actual art or writing as much as I want to, I create all sorts of trendlines and other visual and fundamental reasons crypto could come back even stronger than before. I prepare. I buy ETH around $100. I'm now posting regularly on TradingView. I start figuring out which coins I want to load up on for the next bull run. April, 2019: The market is back. I'm pretty sure the bottom is in. I'm gonna make it. I continue to post about various cryptocurrencies on tradingview, although I begin to feel worried about altcoins. Will they survive through the next cycle? October, 2019: The market is volatile. Bitcoin finally hits $10K again, though there's something strange going on. Is price being manipulated? February, 2020: Things are starting to feel precarious. ETH has done better now, boosting my portfolio back towards break even for the first time. The COVID crash is immanent. I've decided on a career to pursue. March, 2020: Panic. Markets are screwed. I'm going down with the ship. I'm too scared to buy more because everything feels apocalyptic. September, 2020: I begin grad school. While working mostly from home and attending classes remotely, I have a lot of time on my hands to post crypto analysis. I want to invest more, but I have very little income as a student. I feel that price is about to explode upwards. However, in grad school I'm also learning a lot about systems and becoming more and more skeptical about whether crypto would bring about any positive change to financial systems. February, 2021: ETH has broken all-time high. I'm in significant profit. I'm checking my portfolio all the time. Will the altcoins rally soon? Spring - Summer 2021: There's a huge amount of dumping. What's going on here? Why does Elon Musk have so much influence over this market? I thought it was supposed to be decentralized. Tweets are having a huge effect on the market. Should I sell? No, I think it's just a correction. I'm right, at least for now. December, 2021: I'm feeling pretty bullish. Bitcoin made a significant new all-time high. But, something is tingling underneath my skin. I can't quite shake it. What's going on with this LUNA coin? A number of things are starting to unravel in my mind. For example, El Salvador recently made Bitcoin legal tender, but the response was very tepid. It's not seeming very practical at all. If it's not a viable currency, then what is it? I think about Elon Musk. I think about Michael Saylor and his defrauding of investors during the dotcom boom. I allow the cognitive dissonance I've been experiencing completely take over. January - February, 2022: My feelings culminate. I decide to let go of all my crypto, realizing that it's not playing out ideally how I'd hoped. Plus, I'm in significant profit now. The forces that have taken advantage and control in traditional markets and the broader economy have latched themselves onto the cryptocurrency market, where investors are easily exploitable. The Super Bowl happens. Crypto starts to feel more and more like a joke. Who is really profiting from all this? NFT's are also irking me. May, 2022: I finish grad school. Terra LUNA collapses, shortly after I speculated it would. For the rest of the year, I feel validated in my feelings about crypto. FTX collapses later that year, and although in hindsight it marked the bottom of the bear market, I'm hopeful that people will stay far away from this market in years to come. I am optimistic about my own financial future, as I now have a stable career. Later in the year, I make some money day trading, but I eventually stop since it's distracting me from my work. July, 2023: I continue with my new career in the mental health field. I'm 30 years old. XRP was deemed not a security when sold to retail investors, but a security when sold to initial institutional investors. I am disappointed in this outcome, as I disagree and believe many altcoins like XRP are clear securities. I'm glad to be paying less attention to the crypto market. January, 2024: Against my speculation and to my disappointment, Bitcoin ETF's are approved. I stubbornly stay away from the market, believing the ETFs to be another cash grab and an opportunity for existing holders to cash out, particularly those whales who have been on the stablecoin side of things - the orchestrators behind USDD, USDT, etcetera. August, 2024: Ripple is only fined a tiny fraction of the initial request by the SEC for selling unlicensed securities. This opens the floodgates for money to pour back into altcoins, and for more ETFs to eventually be created. November, 2024: Bitcoin finally makes a significant new all-time high after Trump is re-elected. It had been consolidating for much of the year, seeming at times that it would break down and not push past its previous high. January, 2025: Trump is back in office. There's volatility across the market. Many are hopeful that his presidency will bear fruit for crypto holders. Meanwhile, he creates his own meme tokens and profits enormously from them, not unlike the numerous crypto grifters from years past, the grifters that took hold of the market and told me to stay away. I feel upset that price went against my speculation, though also vindicated. Crypto is exactly what I realized it was. My opinion has not changed. It's just another bulky asset, though one where the corruption is far more transparent than it is in the world of traditional finance. Even though it's there for all to see, not much is being done about it. Typical, really, of this current era of deregulation and apathy. Michael Saylor continues to hoard more and more. It's just the plaything of the wealthy now. It's what some people always wanted Bitcoin to become, but the antithesis of what many thought it represented. I'm happy with my career, and I feel good knowing I invested in myself and did not continue to chase cryptocurrencies. After all, it's better to be able to generate capital myself than wait for someone else to do it for me. It's a more certain future for me, with much less speculation. I'm also able to pay off everything from grad school with my profits from the last bull market. Bitcoin active addresses have not grown since 2017. https://studio.glassnode.com/charts/addresses.ActiveCount It is hoarding, and hoarding through custodians. Plus, those who were already into it just kept buying. A few left entirely. And a few wealthy players began accumulating. Now for a little TA: This is the structure I'm looking at for Bitcoin. Failure to push back above that orange trendline has resulted in a rejection so far. This chart should give an idea as to the various extremes price can take over the coming days/weeks: https://www.tradingview.com/x/qzaRvEQv/ This is the longer term BLX chart, showing diminishing returns curved trendlines. If Bitcoin continues to follow this shape, the peak could be limited to $160-170K if reached this year. That is, if it has not already hit the top. https://www.tradingview.com/x/TtS0J5dQ/ The bottom of this structure is comfortably at a major level - near $30k. This bullish structure would need to break down to confirm a bearish period: https://www.tradingview.com/x/Dfd6JRr2/ Right now, the chart LOOKS bullish, but it's important to pay attention to the other signals, the other things going on behind the scenes. Public perception is important as well. The monthly chart appears bullish until the 9 EMA (near $80k now) is lost. The ultimate oscillator continues to show a longer term bearish divergence: https://www.tradingview.com/x/Qn5kq4s8/ The weekly chart can look like a tweezer top with a failed high if price cannot push back above $108k later this week. https://www.tradingview.com/x/YUJu9ypt/ If that push up is successful, I think price can rally up towards $160k before profit taking begins in real earnest again. Let's see what happens! Thank you for going on this journey with me, especially if you've followed me since the earlier days. As always, this post represents my personal opinion and is in no way intended as financial advice. -Victor Cobra
#TradeWithMky On Chart ! @TradeWithMky The EUR/USD is showing signs of a reversal from the monthly Fair Value Gap (FVG) zone, with a bullish breakout from the descending channel. If the current momentum holds, we could see a move toward the weekly FVG zone, offering a solid risk-to-reward opportunity. ? Key Levels: Support: FVG Monthly Zone (~1.02000–1.03000) Resistance: FVG Weekly Zone (~1.07000–1.09000) ? Watch for consolidation before the next leg up! What are your thoughts on this setup? Let me know in the comments! ? #EURUSD #Forex #TradingAnalysis #PriceAction #TechnicalAnalysis #ForexTrading #TradingView #DailyChart #BreakoutTrading #FairValueGap #SupportAndResistance #BullishTrend #ForexCommunity
My main trading principle is that the price always moves from swept liquidity levels to untouched liquidity levels. In particular case we clearly can see the following context: price swept 1D key swing low and left untouched swing high. But to take more statistically more probable trades we should wait for some type of lower timeframe confirmation, and it this case we can notice sign of strength, so potentially there is a higher probability to see price higher. Your success is determined solely by your ability to consistently follow the same principles.
The USD/JPY pair exhibits a clear bearish inclination, driven by a combination of economic and market factors that are strengthening the Japanese Yen and weakening the US Dollar. Currently, the pair has dropped to approximately 155.60, recording a 0.44% loss for the day, with sellers evidently attempting to push the price further toward critical support levels between 154.90 and 153.15. The downward pressure is amplified by rising expectations of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan, further supported by recent positive data such as improvements in Japan’s core machinery orders, signaling a recovery in capital expenditure. Simultaneously, uncertainty surrounding the economic policies of the Trump administration contributes to a negative climate for the US Dollar, which is already under pressure from a recent slowdown in buying flows. From a technical perspective, the pair has encountered significant resistance in the 156.55-156.60 region, a level that halted previous recovery attempts and now acts as a key barrier. For a meaningful trend reversal, a sustained breakout above this resistance, followed by consolidation above 157.00, would be necessary to pave the way toward recent highs at 158.00 or even 158.85. However, the likelihood of a downward breakout seems more tangible, considering that the support at 155.25 represents the last defense before a drop toward the psychological level of 155.00 and further toward 154.60 and 153.30. The current market environment, characterized by reduced trading volumes due to Martin Luther King Jr. Day in the US, suggests caution for traders, as dynamics could quickly shift with the return of liquidity and the announcement of potential monetary or political decisions in both Japan and the US. The combination of positive economic data for Japan and expectations of higher rates positions the Yen in a place of strength, while the Dollar may continue to struggle without a clear positive catalyst. Holding below 155.00 would be a significant signal for bears, indicating an extended downward trajectory toward deeper support levels.
Seems unbelievable based both on the (currently known) news and on the intensity and scale of the prior pump of SOL, but something gives me vibes of another leg up being prepared for Solana. Seems strange and a bit scary and does not make much sense, but the charts have my spidey sense tickling. And also: we are in the bullrun... New ATH loading for SOL.
My main trading principle is that the price always moves from swept liquidity levels to untouched liquidity levels. In particular case we clearly can see the following context: price swept 1D key swing low and left untouched swing high. But to take more statistically more probable trades we should wait for some type of lower timeframe confirmation, and it this case we can notice sign of strength, so potentially there is a higher probability to see price higher. Your success is determined solely by your ability to consistently follow the same principles.
FOREXCOM:USDILS is at a support zone that has consistently acted as a reversal point for bearish trends. The current market structure suggests that this support zone could once again provide a potential buying opportunity—provided that there is clear bullish confirmation. If buyers confirm their presence with signals like long lower wicks or bullish engulfing patterns, we could see a move toward 3.61000. However, a break below this support would invalidate the bullish scenario and signal potential for further declines. Key Levels to Watch: Bullish Target: 3.61000 Stop Loss: Below the support zone Patience is crucial—wait for clear bullish confirmation before entering long positions. What’s your view on this setup? Share your thoughts in the comments!
- This bank has phenomenal growth, expanding TAM in latin america. - Numbers speaks for themselves, It's poised for success for rising middle class consumers in latin america. - Digital Banking will provide immense value in latin america where typical banks were the only way to do banking in the past.
With Donald Trump officially assuming office on January 20, 2025, the United States is set to inaugurate what is widely regarded as the most pro-cryptocurrency administration in history. Whether this development will ultimately prove beneficial or detrimental to the financial markets remains uncertain. For cryptocurrency investors, particularly those who closely follow market patterns, it is crucial to consider key principles of Elliott Wave Theory and broader market cycles. Elliott Wave Theory is a technical analysis framework that seeks to predict market movements by identifying repetitive patterns rooted in collective investor psychology. According to this theory, markets tend to oscillate between extremes of optimism and pessimism in a series of waves. There is reason to believe that the current market environment may foster a sense of optimism, particularly if the U.S. government were to announce the establishment of a strategic Bitcoin reserve. Such an initiative would likely generate significant positive sentiment among investors. However, as Elliott’s principles suggest, this could also signify excessive optimism—a warning sign for those attuned to market cycles. A retrospective analysis of previous cycles, combined with an assessment of the current Elliott Wave (EW) count, indicates that the market is likely in the fifth and final wave of the overall EW cycle, which comprises five waves in total. Elliott theorized the possibility of an "extended wave," often occurring during the third or fifth phase of a market cycle. These extensions typically arise from external interventions, such as government policies, which can either amplify or suppress natural market dynamics. While such interventions may alter the scale of a wave, they do not disrupt the overarching five-wave structure. At present, it appears the market may be on the cusp of an extended fifth wave, potentially leading to a significant "blow-off top" in the ongoing cycle. By employing trend-based Fibonacci extensions, it is possible to project key price levels. Measuring the start of the cycle to the projected peak of wave 5 suggests a top around $107,000, followed by a corrective move bottoming near $89,000. This analysis yields potential upside targets of approximately $123,000 and $145,000 respectively. Despite the apparent upside, investors should remain cautious at these levels. If the U.S. government announces a Bitcoin strategic reserve, the event could prompt a "sell-the-news" reaction, heightening the risk of a sharp market correction. In my assessment, the potential downside risks may outweigh the anticipated gains. Ultimately, only time will reveal the full impact of these developments on the cryptocurrency market.
1. Bullish Exhaustion Bar Definition: A bullish exhaustion bar occurs at the end of a bearish trend, signaling that sellers are losing momentum and buyers are stepping in. It reflects the market's indecision before a potential reversal. Key Characteristics: Long lower wick (indicates rejection of lower prices). Small body near the top of the candlestick. Often forms at support levels or near demand zones. Volume may spike, signaling increased buyer interest. Trading Tips: Look for confirmation on the next bar (e.g., a bullish close above the exhaustion bar). Combine with other tools like trendlines or indicators (e.g., RSI divergence). Place a stop-loss below the low of the exhaustion bar. --------------------------------- 2. Bullish Reversal Bar Definition: A bullish reversal bar forms during a downtrend and indicates a potential reversal to the upside. This candlestick suggests that buyers are gaining control. Key Characteristics: Closes higher than it opens, forming a green candle. Appears after a series of bearish candles. Often accompanied by high trading volume. Trading Tips: Best used at key support levels or demand zones. Wait for a bullish confirmation (e.g., a break above the high of the reversal bar). Place stop-loss below the low of the reversal bar. --------------------------------- 3. Key Reversal Bar Definition: A key reversal bar signals a strong change in market sentiment, often marking the end of a trend or the beginning of a new one. Key Characteristics: Opens below the previous bar's low but closes above the previous bar's high. Indicates a sharp shift from bearish to bullish momentum. Often forms at major support levels or after significant downtrends. Trading Tips: Look for confluence with other indicators or support levels. Use the high of the key reversal bar as an entry point. Place stop-loss below the low of the reversal bar. -------------------------------- 4. Bullish Pin Bar Definition: A bullish pin bar (or hammer) is a single candlestick pattern with a long lower wick and a small body near the top. It shows strong rejection of lower prices and a shift toward bullish momentum. Key Characteristics: Long lower shadow, at least two-thirds of the candlestick's length. Small real body near the upper end of the range. Little to no upper wick. Trading Tips: Effective when it forms at support levels or Fibonacci retracement zones. Enter on the break of the pin bar's high. Place a stop-loss below the pin bar’s low. ------------------------------- 5. Bullish 3-Bar Reversal Definition: A bullish 3-bar reversal pattern consists of three consecutive candlesticks, signaling a reversal from bearish to bullish momentum. Key Characteristics: The first bar is bearish, continuing the downtrend. The second bar has a smaller body, often an indecision candle. The third bar is a strong bullish candle that closes above the first bar's high. Trading Tips: A reliable pattern for trend reversals at support levels. Enter after the third bar closes above the first bar’s high. Stop-loss can be placed below the low of the pattern. ------------------------------- 5. Bullish 3-Bar Reversal Definition: A bullish 3-bar reversal pattern consists of three consecutive candlesticks, signaling a reversal from bearish to bullish momentum. Key Characteristics: The first bar is bearish, continuing the downtrend. The second bar has a smaller body, often an indecision candle. The third bar is a strong bullish candle that closes above the first bar's high. Trading Tips: A reliable pattern for trend reversals at support levels. Enter after the third bar closes above the first bar’s high. Stop-loss can be placed below the low of the pattern. ----------------------------- Final Notes: To use these patterns effectively: Combine them with key support/resistance levels, trendlines, or Fibonacci retracements. Use volume analysis to confirm the strength of the pattern. Always seek confirmation from subsequent candles before entering trades.