Structure wise fits for a top to be in or damn close here - many are expecting 2025 to be a great year for markets however I think we're going to trend down.
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MPC has reached trendline resistance. Expecting small pullback before earnings.
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For the last 4 years (2020-2024), we have been in a narrow band where--generally speaking--SPY and QQQ have performed comparably. 2022 is the notable exception, where inflation increased rapidly and QQQ underperformed SPY. For the prior 12 years before that (2008-2020), QQQ outperformed SPY handedly. Inflation was low. Interest rates were held at ~0%. When you overlap the last 16 year channel with the last 4 years horizontal band it becomes clear that one (or both!) of these trends will break down. Option 1: Inflation is under control, and the last 16 year channel is sustained. 4-year trend breaks. Option 2: Inflation remains in limbo, and we stay in the new 2-year horizontal channel; 16-year trend breaks. Option 3: Inflation is rampant, and QQQ underperforms SPY. Both trends broken. What's it going to be?
The close in the S&P 500 daily chart on Friday was a confident close going into the holiday weekend. Positive movement to the next level is 6060 on the shortened trading session on Monday.
Hello, traders. If you "Follow", you can always get new information quickly. Please click "Boost" as well. Have a nice day today. ------------------------------------- (BTCUSDT 1D chart) https://www.tradingview.com/x/SCRLKFs8/ The StochRSI indicator is showing a change in slope in the overbought zone. However, due to this rise, the StochRSI indicator may touch the 100 point. Accordingly, the StochRSI indicator will soon turn downward. Therefore, when the StochRSI indicator shows a downward trend, the key is whether it can be supported around 101947.24-106133.74. - As the BW auxiliary indicator touches the 50 point, the BW(100) indicator is about to be newly created. Accordingly, the direction in which the newly created BW(100) indicator is created based on the current BW(100) indicator point of 106133.74 is the point of observation. Since the BW auxiliary indicator must fall from the 100 point in order for the BW(100) indicator to be created, the price will fall when the BW(100) indicator is created. The BW(100) indicator has currently been on an upward trend. This time, the point of observation is whether the BW(100) indicator can be created above 106133.74. The BW(100) indicator and the BW(0) indicator are paired indicators. Since the BW(100) indicator fell as it was created, the BW(0) indicator was created, so it can be seen that the wave has been initialized. This time, since the BW(0) indicator is rising as it is being created, if the BW(100) indicator is newly created this time, the wave will be initialized. This wave refers to the box section that moves in the BW(0) ~ BW(100) section. The actual wave or trend starts when it deviates from the BW(0) ~ BW(100) section. The HA-Low and HA-High indicators can also be interpreted as BW(0), BW(100). However, the HA-Low and HA-High indicators are more likely to show wider movements than the BW(0), BW(100) indicators, so they are more advantageous in creating trading strategies. In that sense, the BW(0) and BW(100) indicators can be said to be indicators that can be responded to in detail in trading strategies. - The high point boundary section was formed as the HA-High and BW(100) indicators were created. Accordingly, it will enter the high point section only when it rises above the 101947.24-106.133.74 section. If so, the possibility of starting a new upward wave increases. On the other hand, when the HA-Low indicator and BW(0) indicator are generated, a low point boundary section is formed. - Not all indicators move at all times according to the interpretation method. However, it can only help you find a basis for buying or selling when conducting actual transactions. The movement of these indicators can be said to be like finding a lighthouse in the vast sea of trading. - The next volatility period is between January 23rd and 30th. We need to look at how BTC moves as it passes through this volatility period. As explained above, since the StochRSI indicator is in the overbought section, it is important to see whether the STochRSI indicator shows a downward trend as it passes through this volatility period. The MS-Signal (M-Signal on 1D chart) indicator is rising to around 97461.86. Accordingly, in order to maintain a short-term uptrend, the price should be maintained above the MS-Signal (M-Signal on 1D chart) indicator. - Thank you for reading to the end. I hope you have a successful trade. -------------------------------------------------- - Big picture I used TradingView's INDEX chart to check the entire range of BTC. (BTCUSD 12M chart) https://www.tradingview.com/x/WBuhqVrT/ Looking at the big picture, it seems to have been maintaining an uptrend following a pattern since 2015. In other words, it is a pattern that maintains a 3-year uptrend and faces a 1-year downtrend. Accordingly, the uptrend is expected to continue until 2025. - (LOG chart) https://www.tradingview.com/x/YtZx6YSG/ Looking at the LOG chart, you can see that the upward trend is decreasing. Accordingly, the 46K-48K range is expected to be a very important support and resistance range from a long-term perspective. Therefore, we expect that we will not see prices below 44K-48K in the future. - https://www.tradingview.com/x/zTnWN2r7/ The Fibonacci ratio on the left is the Fibonacci ratio of the uptrend that started in 2015. In other words, it is the Fibonacci ratio of the first wave of the uptrend. The Fibonacci ratio on the right is the Fibonacci ratio of the uptrend that started in 2019. Therefore, it is expected that this Fibonacci ratio will be used until 2026. - No matter what anyone says, the chart has already been created and is already moving. How to view and respond to this is up to you. When the ATH is updated, there are no support and resistance points, so the Fibonacci ratio can be used appropriately. However, although the Fibonacci ratio is useful for chart analysis, it is ambiguous when used as support and resistance. This is because the user must directly select the important selection points required to create Fibonacci. Therefore, since it is expressed differently depending on how the user specifies the selection points, it can be useful for chart analysis, but it can be seen as ambiguous when used for trading strategies. 1st : 44234.54 2nd : 61383.23 3rd : 89126.41 101875.70-106275.10 (Overshooting) 4th : 134018.28 151166.97-157451.83 (Overshooting) 5th : 178910.15 -----------------
Symmetrical Triangle (A-B-C-D): The chart forms a well-defined triangle with lower highs and higher lows, which usually indicates a consolidation phase. The breakout has occurred at point D, suggesting strong bullish momentum after a period of indecision. Measured Move: The yellow line projecting upwards likely represents the target based on the triangle's height. The target seems to align with the 0.800 level, suggesting a significant upside potential. This method of setting targets (height of the triangle added to the breakout point) is a common technique. Breakout Confirmation: After the breakout from point D, there is some retracement, but the price remains above the breakout level, indicating that the bullish move is intact. Volume and Momentum: Though volume isn’t visible in the chart, a strong breakout typically coincides with a volume spike, further confirming the move. The retracement after the breakout suggests a healthy correction before potentially continuing higher. Key Levels: Support: Around the breakout level (0.515), which should hold if the bullish trend is to continue. Resistance: The projected target at 0.800. If momentum is strong, the price could aim for this target or beyond.
LTC has been making some moves recently, with a solid rise getting close to a key high. But the current price action hints at an ABC corrective structure, so a pullback could be on the way. Short Setup: Entry: Between the 0.618 and 0.786 Fibonacci retracement of the current wave Stop Loss: $141.4 (the previous high) Target: $130.7 R:R: About 2:1 Long Setup: Entry: Around $130, with confirmation Stop Loss: $126.45 Targets: First at $134 Second at $147 (the key high) R:R: A nice 5:1 potential Why These Levels? The $130 support zone lines up with the 1:1 Trend-Based Fibonacci Extension ($130.29) It’s also near a previous swing high, adding more weight to it as a strong level Plan: If price moves into the retracement zone, a short trade targeting $130 makes sense If it hits the $130 support and shows strength, a long setup targeting $134 and $147 could be a great play
I think since the run topped in 2021, we are stuck in a sideways correction. In my opinion, the chart did bulid out a larger wave-a to the downside in '22. Since the low, price started surging again, but im declaring these gains as a corrective move towards a lager wave-b. Im calling out a short target in the upper blue box. Price should reverse in this area and slowly start falling towards the pink SMMA-line.