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Price broke structure before retracement to fill ower liquidity. Potentially expect a sell having swept liquidity below down to support level. Target should be resistance zone.
Hang Seng had been amazingly resilient on Friday, falling much lesser than the US indices. However, I believe it is just lagging by 1 impulse wave. If you have seen my last few updates on the wave counts, you will know that I counted completion of wave 3 of 3 for the tech stocks and that Nasdaq itself is nearing the target completion of 5 waves of wave 3 (now on wave 4 of 3). Thus, to me, Hang Seng is lagging by 1 impulse wave. Back to this analysis, for the last down wave on Friday, you will see that I've plotted a purple minute wave with the 5th wave further broken down into orange minuette waves. The orange minuette wave is only on it's 4th wave. However, I believe that we might not actually see a proper wave draw by price movement. I propose that the fifth wave will be unseen. How so? Gap down on Monday opening (marking the end of minuette wave 5) and then a shallow retracement up that is likely to happen during the 1st hour of HK trading session to complete purple minute wave 2 before we see Hang Seng crashing for a wave 3. It might be similar to what happened to Nikkei on Friday's Japan trading hours. Good luck!
TRADEGATE:H2O Seems the downtrend ended now and might rise again to the target level shown https://www.tradingview.com/x/oiEGRtEq/ according to https://www.enapter.com/press-releases/enapter-presents-the-worlds-first-ai-powered-electrolyzer/ this might push further up the stock https://www.tradingview.com/x/cmHEBoTi/
BINANCE:APTUSDT.P ? APTUSDT is sitting at a crucial level. After multiple CHoCH and BoS signals, price has dumped into the key Demand Zone (PDL) . Now it’s either a spring up or a deeper dump to the next liquidity zone. ? Technical Outlook: CHoCH → BoS → Liquidity Grab: Clear bearish structure. Equilibrium broken: Bulls failed to hold control. Now: Price is testing the blue Demand Zone (PDL) with big orders possibly resting. ? Trade Plan: Scenario 1: Long from support zone Entry: bounce from 5.45–5.50 USDT Stop-Loss: under wick low at
Market Context: Bitcoin has been in a clear downtrend, forming lower highs and lower lows on the 15-minute timeframe. The price recently rejected from the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level at $84,510, indicating strong selling pressure at that zone. A new low was formed at $83,532, confirming continued bearish momentum. Trade Setup: Type: Short (Sell) Entry Zone: $84,000 - $83,800 This zone represents a potential pullback area where sellers might re-enter the market. The Fibonacci retracement and previous price action confirm resistance in this region. Stop Loss : $84,240 A stop loss above $84,240 is placed to invalidate the trade if Bitcoin gains bullish momentum beyond the recent swing high. Profit Targets: Target 1: $82,575 This aligns with the 1.0 Fibonacci extension level, a common take-profit zone. Target 2: $81,775 The 1.414 Fibonacci extension, further confirming a continuation of the trend. Target 3: $81,380 The 1.618 Fibonacci extension, marking a deep continuation move where price might find stronger support. Risk-to-Reward (RR) Analysis: The setup offers a high RR ratio, making it a favorable short trade. The trade allows for tight risk management while targeting a significant move in price. Confluence Factors Supporting the Short: Bearish Trend: Price is making lower highs and lower lows. Fibonacci Retracement Resistance: Rejection from key levels. Liquidity Grab & Pullback: Price may retest resistance before continuing downward. Risk-Reward Favorability: Targets align well with market structure. This setup offers a solid momentum-based short opportunity with clearly defined risk levels and take-profit zones. Traders should monitor the entry zone reaction before confirming the short position. ?
Bitcoin continues to move in an ascending channel, gradually regaining its dominance AltSeason may not exist :-)
Here is my DXY & EURUSD analysis for the upcoming week and month. I share what I think will happen in terms of anticipating price using the concepts of liquidity and efficiency as mostly taught by ICT. I hope you find it useful in your perspective of the market. - R2F Trading
Introduction This Bitcoin (BTC/USD) 1-Day Chart Analysis highlights a critical market development: the breakdown of a Rising Wedge pattern, signaling a potential bearish trend. After reaching a new all-time high (ATH) resistance, BTC has shown weakness, confirming a possible reversal. This analysis covers key levels, trend structure, trading setups, and market psychology for traders looking to capitalize on this move. 1️⃣ Understanding the Chart Structure Rising Wedge Pattern – A Classic Bearish Reversal A Rising Wedge is a bearish technical formation that develops when prices rise within a narrowing range. It typically features: ✅ Higher Highs & Higher Lows: Suggesting bullish momentum, but the price action becomes weaker over time. ✅ Converging Trendlines: Showing a loss of buyer strength as each rally fails to make significant new highs. ✅ Volume Decline: As the wedge matures, volume decreases, confirming reduced buying interest. ✅ Breakdown Confirmation: A sharp drop below the lower trendline validates the bearish move. In this case, BTC followed all the classic wedge characteristics, and its breakdown has initiated a potential major correction. 2️⃣ Key Levels & Market Dynamics ? Resistance Level + All-Time High (ATH) (~$110K-$115K) BTC reached its ATH resistance zone but failed to hold above it. The red arrow indicates the rejection at the top, where strong selling pressure emerged. Bulls attempted multiple breakouts but failed, leading to a reversal. ? Support Zone (~$78K-$80K) – Weak Retest Before Breakdown The price initially bounced off this support but struggled to hold gains. The blue support level highlights a key zone where BTC found temporary stability. A weak rally followed, but the price got rejected again, confirming the bearish trend. ? Major Bearish Target (~$48,920) Using the measured move theory, the projected drop extends to $48,920, a strong historical support. The black arrow points to the expected downward trajectory. 3️⃣ Trading Setup & Risk Management ? Bearish Trade Setup (Short Position Strategy) For traders looking to short BTC based on this pattern, here’s an optimal trade setup: ? Entry Point: Around $85K-$90K (post-retest of breakdown) ? Stop Loss: Above $100K (invalidation of the bearish setup) ? Take Profit Targets: TP1: $75K (minor support) TP2: $60K (psychological level) TP3: $48,920 (final bearish target) Alternative Scenario – Bullish Recovery? If BTC reclaims $100K+ with high volume, the bearish thesis is invalidated, signaling a continuation of the uptrend. A break above ATH ($115K) would confirm new bullish strength. 4️⃣ Market Sentiment & Psychological Factors ? Bearish Sentiment Strengthens: Rising Wedges often cause a bull trap, where buyers expect new highs but get caught in a reversal. Current price action suggests sellers are gaining control. ⚠️ Key Risks for Traders: False breakdowns can occur if BTC sees unexpected bullish news. Keeping an eye on fundamental developments (ETF approvals, macroeconomic conditions, etc.) is essential. Conclusion – BTC Heading for a Deeper Correction? Bitcoin’s Rising Wedge breakdown strongly suggests a continued bearish trend. Short opportunities are ideal below $90K, with downside targets near GETTEX:48K -$50K. If BTC regains $100K+, bearish outlook is invalid. ? Trading Recommendation: Monitor price action closely and adjust risk management accordingly! Would you like me to tweak any part of this analysis? ?