Today I was about to violate my trading plan because of being unable to recognize when I didn't understand what price action was doing. My trading plan stipulates that I can only trade when Higher timeframes (1D, 1W, 1M) are in alignment with lower timeframes (H4, H1, M15) If they're not in alignment, my strategy doesn't work. I have no way of predicting price movements and knowing I'll most probably be right. Today this alignment was not present, yet, because I subconsciously wanted my market analysis to be right, I failed to acknowledge this misalignment and tried to come up with trade ideas. Price action kept on invalidating my trade ideas as I prepared them, and I found myself looking for new ideas. "Since this entry scenario is now invalidated, maybe price will do this instead and I will look to enter after this scenario is confirmed" "This scenario failed, instead of looking to buy EUR/USD today, I might look to sell instead after price rejects this level" "Since price failed to reject this level, maybe it will reject this other level and I will look to sell there" You get the point. I was unable to make strong cases, my cases kept on being invalidated and I kept coming up with new ones on the go! Sort of chasing a rabbit. Don't do this. For example, understanding when a 1H bearish trend is a Daily timeframe pullback from a Bullish trend and having an expected level where that 1h trend and Daily pullback is likely to find support and reverse, continuing the main trend. This stops me from entering long trades and losing because although the Daily timeframe is bullish the lower timeframes are still trending bearish which indicate the pullback is not yet finished. or from taking 1H short trades past the daily pullback target just because I saw a 1H bearish trend, failing to realize that trend might be reaching its end. If However price pulls back past my target level, and the lower timeframe trend continues pulling back even though the Higher timeframe is supposedly bullish, then If I don't have a logical pull back target — I am effectively neutral. In other words, I do not understand what price is doing at that point in time. It's time to step back and wait for a new development that I can understand occurs. What happens when I am either overconfident or eager to trade is that I can get into my own head and fail to realize I'm in unknown territory. This failure led me to keep trying to establish trade scenarios that of course kept getting invalidated because I do not know how to make prediction in such market conditions — My timeframes were not aligned. I was able to realize this and adjust my behavior. However, what often happens is you fail to realize this, you come up with a trade idea, and you take the trade and it ends up being a loss — Caught up on the wrong side of the market. Or even worse, 2 or 3 trades work out, and the trader believes their strategy is good. Then get caught in a 10% drawdown because of acting on the same patterns. My point is, that it's important to be able to recognize when market conditions fall outside the scope of your strategy and its edge — Recognize when the market is in a cycle where you don't understand how to trade profitably — and be able to sit out and say I don't know. Don't try to find trends in the middle of price ranges. The number one job of a trader is to Protect Capital in order to have available capital to allocate to profitable market opportunities. Trading outside the scope of your strategy and its edge is failing to protect the capital — It's like trying to Play Soccer with a Basketball, the shots, the passes, the tricks might work here and there, but will usually come out faulty. In my specific case, I began the week with a bullish view for EUR/USD from the daily timeframe, but the lower timeframes, where I execute and manage trades, have been in a bullish trend since Monday NY Session, So since I couldn't find long opportunities, I started looking for short opportunities, even though I had no clear rationale that aligned with the higher timeframes. My scenarios and ideas kept failing, and I kept coming up with new ones, until I became aware of the pattern due to writing down my analysis and process and realizing I actually did not understand the current stage of price action. That's where the importance of a well-documented trading plan alongside a journal for analysis comes in. A journal isn't just to record trades. It's also to develop your rationale and ensure you can clearly explain the why behind your actions which can then be cross-examined with the trading plan. I have established clear rules for when to stay out of the market and sit on my hands. If timeframes are not aligned and moving in synch, I stay out — It's a non-negotiable. Of course this is specific to each strategy, but every strategy must have an underlying trading plan with its non negotiables.
Go through the analysis carefully, and do trade accordingly. Anup Bias (Mid term) Current price- 193.100 "if Price stay below 194.300 then next target is 191.800 and 190.000 and above that 194.500. -POSSIBILITY-1 Wait (as geopolitical situation are worsening ) -POSSIBILITY-2 Wait (as geopolitical situation are worsening) Best of luck Never risk 2% of principal to follow any position. Support us by liking and sharing the post.
Key Resistance Zone: 2760-2763 (marked in red). Support Levels: 2750.68 and 2745.46. Price shows rejection near resistance and consolidation around the current support zone. Watch for a breakout above resistance or a drop below support for the next trend direction.
? XRP is shaping up nicely with a clean structure, hinting at the formation of another 1-2 wave setup. If this pattern holds, we could be gearing up for a strong impulse move ahead. Watching key support levels for confirmation. ?
QML Set up looking to go bearish, Waiting for Price action to provide confirmation.
After a beautiful harmonic pattern, price was setup for a nice buy. with the B of the bat pattern being our tp1, also aligned with a key fibb level. As the retracement tool is a great way to gauge the level of pullback to an area of discount to enter the market for a bullish move. Third way up the bat pattern also where a key solid order block was maintaining resistance which prevented price from reaching our target 3 and 4. Price is now back to a key area and and price action is presenting small higher highs and higher lows. The stop loss has been placed below the 75% area on the fibb and the additional fibb levels for the new projected targets.
Bitcoin may have technically completed its **macro 5th wave**, but there’s also the possibility that what we’re seeing is just **wave 1 of 5** within that final impulse. If that's the case, this would mean we’re in the early stages of an extended 5th wave structure, implying that after a corrective wave 2, we could still see much higher prices as waves 3, 4, and 5 unfold. Watching how BTC reacts to key retracement levels will be crucial in determining which scenario is playing out. ?
Most analyst following AMD are downgrading its fundamentally because of the AI new software coming from small company in China. Well, technically we are completely going into the other direction which is we are having a major trough in coming weeks/months in 2025 with + 50% move. - The big question is when and where ? WARNING: Some Elliottions are calling for a 1929 bear mkts !!!!!!!!!!
BTC/USDT 1H Chart Analysis ? Follow me on TradingView if you respect our charts ? Everyday a new chart! Current Market Structure: Accumulation phase ongoing after recent drop. Hidden Bullish Divergence: RSI showing higher lows while price consolidates at key demand zone. Smart Money Activity: Market makers accumulated heavily at $99K-$100K, positioning for markup. Key Levels: Entry Zone: $102,400 - $102,600 Targets: T1: $103,800 T2: $105,200 T3: $106,400 Stop Loss: Below $101,800 Risk Score: 7/10 (favorable risk/reward with strong technical setup but watch for volatility). Market Maker Intent: Accumulation nearly complete, expecting breakout toward liquidity zones. Volume profile confirms institutional interest at current levels. Break above $103,800 confirms bullish continuation. Recommendation: Long positions favorable within $102,400-$102,600 range. Monitor volume to confirm breakout momentum. Maintain tight stops to protect against market volatility. Confidence Level: 8/10 for bullish continuation. ? Follow me on TradingView if you respect our charts ?Everyday a new chart!
Check the analysis It's just the analysis not buy sell recommendation Don't trust me trust the God ☝️