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In the weekend trading session on Friday (January 17), OANDA:XAUUSD Spot price decreased by 12 USD due to factors such as the recovery of the US Dollar and profit-taking activities of investors, along with some pressure from important technical areas. TVC:DXY Rising prices have put pressure on gold prices, but with uncertainty over incoming President Donald Trump's policies and markets once again betting on further interest rate cuts, Gold remains in favor. Weakly tilted to the upside as prices broke above the key level of $2,700. OANDA:XAUUSD hit a new high in more than a month on Thursday, just $65.60 shy of October's all-time high of $2,790.15. Gold prices rose 0.5% this week, the third straight weekly gain, after weaker-than-expected U.S. core inflation data on Wednesday fueled speculation that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates. capacity many times. The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates twice before the end of this year, with Fed Governor Christopher Waller saying there could be further interest rate cuts if economic data weakens further. Trump's policies make the market worried The market is currently eagerly awaiting Mr. Trump's inauguration on January 20, which is expected to bring challenges to the gold market. Trump's strong rhetoric about supporting US manufacturing through trade tariffs continues to keep the US Dollar Index (Dxy) above 109 points, while also raising concerns about inflation and anxiety about a global trade war. Aggressive markets will pay close attention to tariffs and fiscal spending policies, as these policies will directly affect economic growth, fiscal deficits and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Fed. This week has been a pretty quiet data week. However, the event of Trump taking over the White House will be the focus, bringing expected market fluctuations that are huge fluctuations that traders need to pay special attention to. Economic data to watch out for this week Monday: US Presidential Inauguration, World Economic Forum Annual Meeting Thursday: US weekly unemployment claims, Friday: S&P Flash PMI data, US Existing Home Sales https://www.tradingview.com/chart/XAUUSD/Rw0kX865-GOLD-MARKET-ANALYSIS-AND-COMMENTARY-January-20-January-24/ Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold has not yet been able to surpass the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level, a position that is important resistance for a continued uptrend that readers noticed in the previous issue. Gold has also decreased and corrected since being under pressure from the 0.236% Fibonacci level, but in general, the downward momentum is not significant with technical conditions still tilting in favor of price increases. In the coming time, as long as gold remains in the orange price channel, above EMA21 and POC Volume Profile, it still has a bullish outlook. Meanwhile, the up trending RSI maintained its activity above the 50 level, showing that there is still wide room for price growth ahead. Once gold breaks the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level it could open a new bullish cycle targeting $2,750 in the short term, more than the all-time high. The technical uptrend of gold will be noticed again by the following levels. Support: 2,693 – 2,676USD Resistance: 2,730 – 2,750USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2741 - 2739⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2745 →Take Profit 1 2734 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2729 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2659 - 2661⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2655 →Take Profit 1 2666 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2671
it is what it is, this is my prediction gold 1/20/2024 gold will be bullish 1st then going to be bearish after mitigated supply zone
Hello Dear traders! Must Support Me And Share Your Thoughts in comment section (XAU/USD) price movement on a 4-hour timeframe, showing an ascending channel pattern. From a technical analysis perspective, the price is moving within this upward channel, indicating a bullish trend. The suggestion here is to target potential profit levels at TP 2717 and TP 2760. The stop loss is set below the current level to manage risk if the market moves against expectations. From a fundamental analysis standpoint, factors such as macroeconomic indicators, interest rates, geopolitical events and currency fluctuations can influence gold prices. Investors may consider these elements alongside technical signals to make informed trading decisionsOverall, traders are encouraged to take a position on gold within this technical setup while considering fundamental influences that may impact future price movements. NOTE: This Ananlysis For educational purposes only not a trading advice
Educational Purpose: This tutorial aims to educate traders on identifying fakeouts, understanding their characteristics, and improving risk management strategies to avoid common pitfalls. Key Educational Points: 1. What is a Fakeout? A fakeout occurs when the price temporarily breaks a key support or resistance level but fails to sustain the move, reversing quickly. It often traps traders who enter prematurely. 2. Spotting Fakeouts: Volume Analysis: Fakeouts typically show weak volume during the breakout. Always confirm breakouts with a noticeable increase in volume. Market Context: In range-bound or choppy markets, breakouts are less reliable. Look for additional confirmation before entering trades. Follow-Through: Wait for at least one or two candles to close above resistance or below support after a breakout. 3. Risk Management During Fakeouts: Set Tight Stop-Losses: Place stop-loss orders close to the breakout level to minimize losses if the move fails. Use Confluence: Combine multiple factors (e.g., trendlines, moving averages, Fibonacci retracements) for stronger confirmation. Plan Your Targets: Avoid overly aggressive targets unless the breakout is supported by strong market structure and volume. 4. Trading Psychology: Patience is Key: Do not rush into trades at the first sign of a breakout. Wait for confirmations to reduce emotional decision-making. Learn from Losses: Treat fakeouts as learning opportunities. Analyze what went wrong and refine your approach. Practical Application: In the attached chart of 1000BONK/USDT, a failed breakout (fakeout) highlights these principles: Weak volume during the breakout. Lack of follow-through above resistance. A reversal that would have been avoided by waiting for confirmation. This tutorial emphasizes that proper confirmation, risk management, and trading psychology are essential for avoiding fakeouts and improving overall performance. Let me know your thoughts or share how you approach such situations!
Fibonacci technical analysis : S&P 500 E-mini Futures CME_MINI:ES1! has already found support at the Fib level 78.6% (6020.50) of my Down Fib. Last Daily candle (Jan 17) has closed above retracement Fib level 78.6%. My Down Fib guides me to look for ES1! to eventually go up to hit first target at Fib level 127.2% (6129.00). CME_MINI:ES1! – Target 1 at 127.2% (6129.00), Target 2 at 161.8% (6206.00) and Target 3 at 178.6 (6243.50) Stop loss slightly below the 61.8% retracement Fib level (5983.00). Option Traders : My SPY AMEX:SPY chart Down Fib shows price to go up to Target 1 at 127.2% (605), Target 2 at 161.8% (613) and Target 3 at 178.6 (616) Stop loss slightly below the 61.8% retracement Fib level (592).
https://www.tradingview.com/x/iwN30Rpt/ Earlier on Friday, I shared with you a confirmed structure breakout on USDJPY on a daily. This morning, retesting a broken structure, the price formed a strong bearish confimation on an hourly. I see a double top pattern and a violation of its neckline. With a high probability, the price will fall and reach 155.57/ 155.18 levels. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Looking at the daily chart of EUR/USD, I see that the pair is moving within a clear bearish channel. Currently, the price is hovering around 1.0297, near the center line of the channel. The EMA 34 and EMA 89 are still sloping down, confirming the long-term downtrend. However, a small divergence at the support level suggests a potential short-term recovery. It is worth noting that the price is testing a dynamic resistance zone, near the EMA 34, around 1.0300. If the price fails to break above this level, selling pressure could increase, dragging the price down to the 1.0200 area, or even the bottom of the channel around 1.0100. Conversely, if the price breaks above the EMA 34 and breaks the channel, the next target could be the 1.0400 area.
My analysis was doing well until the price failed to reach a new all-time high, rejecting at $0.4247, breaking through my diagonal support, and invalidating my prior technical analysis (TA). What Happened After adjusting my charts according to the new price action, I now see that the Wave 2 correction started as an A-B-C correction but transitioned into a Triangle Correction. Initially, I tracked this as a WXYXZ correction, which wasn’t entirely incorrect. However, I expected the market to reverse after the "Z" correction. Instead, we saw two additional impulses before the correction ended. I have marked my invalidation lines on the charts for reference. To be fair I like this analysis more than my previous as if you have been following me it was always an issue that Wave C was truncated so this Triangle Correction actually fits much better - Lets see how it goes. Analysis of Events As the market dumped starting at 8:00 AM (AEST) over a five-hour period, approximately 1.556 billion contracts were traded. There was massive volume, over six times higher than Gala's usual trading volume. During this period, the price ranged between $0.03933 and $0.03165, indicating significant absorption. Absorption Explained: During this price consolidation, a substantial number of participants were selling off positions. Under normal circumstances, this volume of selling would push the market further downward. However, it didn’t. The reason? Large buy orders were absorbing the sell orders. What we witnessed was the market dumping into a buying zone, where larger players were waiting to absorb the sell pressure. This indicates that larger market makers entered the market with the expectation that the price is heading upwards. When these players enter at such significant levels, it typically sets the stage for a bullish move in the near future. Updated Technical Observations Invalidation Lines: Clearly marked to reflect the failed reversal after the "Z" correction. Volume Spike: The 6x increase in volume during the sell-off confirms strong market participation. Buy Zone: The price consolidation at $0.03933 - $0.03165 demonstrates a critical accumulation phase. Larger market players entering at these levels strongly imply an upcoming upward momentum. As always, patience and adherence to updated TA will be critical moving forward.
Bitcoin failed to quickly make an all-time high, I suggested a consolidation of around a day was reasonable but much more than that would result in a deeper correction before breaching the all-time high. If there's a significant retracement to the upside from these levels, I would expect the first buying zone to hold, if this currently is the extent of the retracement, I'm personally more interested in the lower levels, the highest of the lower levels essentially.